Ante Post Analysis: 2026 Epsom Derby and Oaks betting tips

In his latest Ante Post Analysis column, Races Now's Adam Smith takes a final check in on both the Epsom Derby and Epsom Oaks markets ahead of declarations later this week.

Item worth adding to Derby list

Looking at major ante post races for weeks (and sometimes months) in advance can act as both a help and a hinderance.

Sure, it can help finding the early value (Bow Echo 12/1 on this column, a recent example), but it can also hinder when writing a horse off too early without a second look (True Love). I have been guilty of both.

All too often I have nailed my colours to a four-legged mast and steadfastly stuck to it despite subsequent form or analysis offering a viable alternative.

I have had one bet in the Derby market and that was Pierre Bonnard, advised here at 16/1 with the confidence he will go off half the price. He is currently half that price – and shortening further.

On 2026 evidence he certainly does not have the best form. But he has been campaigned as the Ballydoyle number one Derby hope throughout and spent the whole winter as ante post favourite. Those two facts made him a bet at 16/1, though not so much at 8 in my opinion. I'm happy with previously advised position.

Benvenuto Cellini has been favourite since his Chester romp, where we learnt absolutely nothing other than that he was alive and well. Now, he might be very good in time. But beating Proposition (100 official rating ), Mr Colonol (97), Del Maro (101) and Mr Vettori (98) is simply not as good form as Dante winner Item – albeit Benvenuto did win by over four lengths. As he should have done at 2/9.

There's an interesting side note with the Epsom “atmosphere” in mind here, too. Benvenuto is a full brother to Giselle - who was an absolute nutcase.

Item, meanwhile – on just his third career start and the only one of an eight-strong Dante field to be making his seasonal debut – was beating horses rated 114 (Action), 110 (Christmas Day), 101 (King’s Trail) and 111 Morshdi.

Item simply has the best form in the book and is fully entitled to progress further on that first run of his three-year-old campaign at York.

Naysayers will point towards the lack stamina on his dam side, which is a fair point. But Frankel on the other side of the page helps ease those worries significantly. And there were no worries from a visual standpoint at the business-end of what was the best Derby trial to my eye.

I think Item should be favourite. He may well go off favourite on Saturday. So I'd be happy to back him at 4/1.

Amelia still appeals for Oaks

I have long thought Amelia Earhart is the one to beat in the Oaks and the necessary second look through the contenders hasn’t changed my mind.

The presence of Precise amongst the five day confirmations and the distinct possibility Ryan Moore could ride her will provide ample value in the market. That’s if, like me, you think Precise will not stay the mile and a half trip. She's by an out-and-out sprinter in Starspangledbanner and has never ran over further than a mile.

I think Precise is a cracking horse. Just not a twelve furlong horse.

Precise could well go off favourite. Which is good news for me, as I am yet to back Amelia and am certainly keen to do so.

I’m unsure on Legacy Link, who won the Musidora at York on her first run of the year. Although I do think she went some way to answering the pre-race stamina question marks in the process. Of those at the top of the market though, I much prefer Amelia, who has Oaks written all over her.

At slightly bigger prices, I can see Venetian Lace running well too.

Charlie Johnston clearly used the 1,000 Guineas as a stepping stone to Epsom for a filly laden with stamina. Form which has already worked out well, with the 7th, 5th and 1st at Newmarket finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the Irish equivalent.

I’ll be keeping a keen eye on Wednesday's final declarations with the intention of backing Amelia Earhart. Check out our usual Thursday night YouTube show for the best weekend bets right across the cards.

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