Flat Racing column 2026: 2,000 Guineas ante post market update and tips

In his latest Focus On The Flat column, Races Now's Adam Smith takes a closer look at an open-looking 2,000 Guineas market and gives his thoughts on where the value may currently lie ahead of the season's first Classic.

Guineas market going bananas

Never can I remember so much upheaval in the Guineas ante post markets before we have seen a single trial run on UK shores. It’s been rather chaotic for one reason or another.

My most recent column reported hype horses being cut from 10/1 to 7/2 before finishing 6th in a Listed race, the same horse (plus a stablemate) being “accidentally” removed from the race and now are required to be supplemented for £30,000 if they want to run in the 2,000 Guineas.

Now, we can add to that the unfortunately increasingly typical well-fancied horse that has had a minor setback, is still being trained for Newmarket but might not make it. And that’s all from the confines of one training facility!

Last weekend saw 4/1 second favourite Publish ruled out of the first Classic of the season after being found lame on Thursday. A shame, but also a sign of what could be turning into an below-par renewal, given the second favourite less than a month before the big race boasts a Listed race second as his best performance to date.

Publish’s replacement as second in the market, Talk Of New York, has a similarly underwhelming CV currently, with a Kempton maiden win and Meydan Listed third at odds of 4/9. We’ll find out much more about the free-going son of Wootton Bassett this week at the Craven meeting. He could well be a market mover from his current price of 7/1.

Next in the market is Gstaad, who has actually been accidently taken out the race but could well still run. Inevitably with the runners thinning out, we are going to see market movers such as Hidden Force, who now finds himself at 16/1 despite only winning two Kempton races in December and February. Although, Charlie Appleby knows how to graduate one from Kempton to Guineas glory, so don’t underestimate him. We are due to see Hidden Force in the Craven Stakes this week.

Shout out to Thesecretadversary, who won what looked a fair renewal of the Group 3 Red Rocks Stakes at Leopardstown on April 12th by a commanding two and a half lengths. He’s been cut into 25/1 but you are more likely to see the Fozzy Stack inmate in the Irish 2,000 Guineas rather than the English equivalent.

O'Brien's Craven headscratcher

Before we conclude this week, let's loop back to Aidan O’Brien, who is making me scratch my head somewhat.

He’s got three horses entered for the Craven on Thursday. Firstly, O’Brien has never won the Craven and has only had three runners in the last twelve years. Yet here we are with the Racing Post Trophy winner and Derby second favourite Hawk Mountain a possible runner. Plus Constitution River and Port Of Spain.

The usual Ballydoyle MO is to go straight to the Guineas – he’s won the Guineas ten times doing that. Plus the fact that I think the days of O’Brien’s Derby contenders running in the Guineas in the trial are finished, with fingers burnt in recent years.

So, I can’t work it out. Is Hawk Mountain (20/1) now a Guineas contender given unusual lack of Coolmore strength in the race this year? Are they using the Craven as a Derby trial now? Or am I reading way too much into it? Hawk Mountain might not even run in the Craven – we’ll find out Thursday. It’s interesting for sure.

All in all, loyal followers of this column will be happy with my tip on Bow Echo way back in December at 12/1. He’s now 3/1 best as a result of many others finding bumps in their road to Newmarket.

Bow Echo clearly has a cracking chance by the looks of it. I’m not saying he’s a superstar in the making and I wouldn’t back him at the 3/1 he is now. But he might be good enough to win in a renewal that appears to be getting weaker by the week.

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