Flat Racing column: 2026 Epsom Derby ante post insight, betting tips

In his latest Focus On The Flat column, Races Now's Adam Smith checks in on the ante post market for the 2026 Epsom Derby, assessing the recent price moves and whether anything takes his eye in terms of a wager at this stage.

We are now three weeks away from the Derby, which has a £2,000,000 prize pot for the first time ever in 2026 – a cool £1,000,000 of which heads to the winner.

Some used to say the best trial for the Derby was the Guineas, but those days are long gone. The 2014 Guineas 3rd and 8th finished 1st and 2nd in the following month's Derby. This year, of the current 41 entries, only one of them (King’s Trail, 9th) ran in the 2,000 Guineas and he’s 66/1.

Aidan O’Brien has had his hands burnt with Derby types in the Guineas in recent years – Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy both spectacularly bounced back at Epsom, having only beaten two rivals apiece on the Rowley Mile. Ballydoyle haven’t ran a ‘Derby type’ in the Newmarket Classic since and that trend looks set to continue.

Anyway, back to the top of the market where sits Benvenuto Cellini, who – alongside his 100-rated pacemaker Proposition – dominated the Chester Vase, beating three British rivals rated 101 or less. He’ll have harder pieces of work at his Tipperary home, to be honest. We didn’t learn a lot about the horse named after an Italian goldsmith. A Derby contender for sure, but a solid favourite at 5/2? Not for me.

On Racing Post Ratings, Benvenuto Cellini isn’t even the best Derby contender in his stable. That award goes to Constitution River, who also won at Chester at long odds on. That was breaking the track record over ten furlongs and he does have stamina question marks. So sticking at ten furlongs for the French non-Derby appears to be connections' preferred option at this stage.

That might be why he’s 7/1 and BC 5/2 at time of writing. If Ryan Moore was to ride Constitution River at Epsom in three weeks’ time, you can be sure he’d be favourite.

Next up we have Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance, who fought out the Lingfield Derby finish. Both will likely stay the trip, both will likely run. They were a long way clear of the third at Lingfield and favourite Maho Bay was the latest Charlie Appleby disappointment back in fourth. There are certainly more likely winners of the Derby than those pair.

As usual, the Dante was the final recognised Derby trial with what looked beforehand like a decent field. A Fielden winner, a Racing Post Trophy runner up and the second and third from the Sandown Classic Trial. Yet it was Juddmonte’s Item, on his first start of the year and first start outside of Novice company, that extended his perfect record to three.

An unbeaten, two and three-quarter length winner of the Dante, by Frankel – he’s certainly a big player in the Derby with that profile. Cut from 33/1 into 6/1 second favourite as a result. I wouldn’t put anyone off that is for sure. He’ll have some questions to answer in regards to inexperience etc.

Pierre Bonnard was the winter favourite for the Derby after finishing last year with a ten furlong Group One win to his name. He then took the ‘Ballydoyle number one contender’ route at the start of 2026 with runs in the Ballysax and Derrinstown, 7th in the former (disappointing) and short head second in the latter (much more like it, nabbed on the line).

Now, it would be somewhat fanciful to be bullish about Pierre Bonnard’s form this year, given he’s been beaten at even money and 5/6 – but I do think his current price of 16/1 for the Derby is too big. He’s an intended runner and clearly connections still think he can challenge for a podium place at Epsom.

A final one to mention, Joseph O’Brien’s James J Braddock won the Derrinstown on the line and would come into the Epsom reckoning if the ground turned out to be slow.

In conclusion, I think Benvenuto Cellini is a weak favourite and might not even be favourite on the day. Item is clearly a big player and impressed at York. Constitution River might not run and Pierre Bonnard is overpriced.

I’m happy to have half a point each way on Pierre Bonnard at 16/1.

Smido's ante post 2026 Derby selection

0.5pts EW - Pierre Bonnard to win the 2026 Epsom Derby - 16/1 (Bet365 - 1/5 odds 3 places)

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