Flat Racing column 2026: Lockinge early look and analysis

In his latest Focus On The Flat column, Races Now's Adam Smith takes a first look ahead to the 2026 Lockinge Stakes, which will take place on Saturday May 16th 2026 at Newbury Racecourse.

Ante post first look: Lockinge Stakes – May 16th, 2026

Early entries tease high-class renewal

The Lockinge early entries are out and it looks a properly good renewal with just over month until the first older horse Group 1 of the flat season at Newbury. I managed to tip the winner ante post on this column 12 months ago, so here goes the follow-up attempt!

Five Group 1 winners from last season including Field Of Gold (St James’s Palace), Notable Speech (Breeders Cup Mile), Never So Brave (City Of York), Docklands (Queen Anne) and Cicero’s Gift (QEII) are potential Lockinge participants, with fellow early entrants Zeus Olympios and Opera Ballo undoubtedly on the “potential Group 1 winners” list in 2026.

Field Of Gold looked fantastic in winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace last summer but it’s safe to say the form of those behind in those easy wins didn’t work out well for the remainder of the season. He then picked up a knock in a messy Sussex, before returning in an equally chaotic QEII with a massive draw bias.

Connections might have to strike whilst the sun shines with Field Of Gold this year so I’d expect him to be tuned up for the Lockinge and then the Queen Anne a few weeks later. Although I’m in no rush to back him at 9/4, given the lingering question marks about his true ability and the depth in possible opposition on the day.

The Lockinge wouldn’t be high up on the Aidan O’Brien list of priorities given he hasn’t had a single runner in the last three years and has ‘only’ won it twice with Hawk Wing (2003) and Rhododendron (2018). Although he does appear pretty sure to have at least one runner this year with The Lion In Winter – placed in four Group 1s last year, Twain – a Group 1 winning juvenile who missed the whole of last year, and Expanded, who suffered a disjointed 2025 after running second in the Dewhurst as a juvenile, all viable contenders.

Notable Speech and his connections caught the wrath of this writer last year (as did Rosallion) when reported perfectly A1 before the race before reverting to “will come on plenty for it” after the race, having finished fourth.

There were no top level triumphs in Europe last year for the 2024 2,000 Guineas winner, though he did finish the year with two Grade 1s in North America including the Breeders Cup.

He’s clearly one of the best milers in the world but is he better on turning tracks rather than straight miles? Possibly. Although it must be noted Notable Speech has had a very different prep into a possible tilt at the Lockinge this year as he ran at Keenland on April 10th.

Go back and watch that race, if you can. Notable Speech couldn’t get into the contest at all. Caught in between horses, couldn’t get out, hampered very badly before finishing on the bridle in fourth, he’ll have had harder pieces of work.

Unexposed duo could hold the key

There are two massively exciting and unexposed at this level contenders that I’m bang looking forward to.

First up is Opera Ballo, who we have seen a fair bit of and ten months ago I would have said (with ample evidence) he can’t behave during races, so can’t be a Group 1 winner. But Charlie Appleby has worked hard to turn him into a more reliable and better behaved character with his form ticking in the right direction from July onwards.

He could be a big player here, but I can’t see both Godolphin boys Notable Speech and Opera Ballo running in the Lockinge.

Without doubt the most exciting prospect in the race at this stage Zeus Olympios, who jumped from a Thirsk novice to impressive Haydock Group 3 winner in September last year, and then won again in the Group 2 Joel Stakes, with Opera Ballo over two lengths back in second.

Similarly to Field Of Gold though, 11/4 is short enough at this stage. But for the good of the race, I'm very much hoping they both turn up. They should be doing so, really. And we could actually see both Lockinge market leaders at Sandown at the end of this month. Keep an eye on entries.

No rush to pull the trigger

Truth be told, there’s no bet at this stage for me.

I write these ante post columns as I look through the runners one by one with a view to scouring for a bet, rather than writing about it having already decided. Both Field Of Gold and Zeus Olympios are solid in the market given I think they’ll both run and both could win, clearly.

I would be surprised if Godolphin run both Notable Speech and Opera Ballo, while I’ve mentioned Aidan’s three who each have something to prove in their own right, while Never So Brave and More Thunder are also in the same ownership and surely won’t both run here.

Never So Brave was the closest I came to a bet as he was a primary victim of that QEII draw bias but I'd want bigger than 14/1 given what has been previously said about running plans.

As always with these big Group 1s, lets hope most of the big guns turn up, it looks an absolute cracker. And we will be having a look at this market again much nearer the time.

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