Flat Racing column: A look at the post-Royal Ascot ante post markets

In his latest Focus On The Flat column, Races Now's Adam Smith takes a look at how the ante post markets for various upcoming key races are looking following a dramatic week of action at Royal Ascot last month.

A fantastic Royal Ascot is now in the rear view mirror, but not to worry, the flat Group Ones come thick and fast at this time of the year. Six top level races await us in the month of July – starting with the Eclipse this Saturday.

Eclispe – Sandown, July 4th 2026

We have an Eclipse problem in British racing. It's unfortunate but true.

Two weeks after the Royal meeting and three weeks before the King George doesn't appear to be ideal for many trainer of a thoroughbred in 2026. We tend to have an Eclipse with no Royal Ascot participants or a King George with no Eclipse runners. This wasn't always the case.

The prospect of Ombudsman reappearing in the Eclipse 17 days after his Royal Ascot romp appeared unlikely, given John Gosden stated the Juddmonte was his next big target. And a week later, his skipping of the Sandown showpiece was confirmed.

As a result, the big market mover was the Owen Burrows-trained Gethin who was 11/2 a week ago, now 100/30. Some would argue the price collapse started when SD tipped Gethin on our Monday YouTube show.

From an ante post perspective, particularly at 11/2, Gethin was attractive. A horse on the up. Likely runner. Three places available at the time. But a shorter price brings greater scrutiny and Gethin wouldn't be bombproof here by any means.

Yes, he ran a career best behind Ombudsman in the Group Three Brigadier Gerard over course and distance, but he did carry seven pounds less than the winner that day. And the third (three lengths back) is 66/1 to win the Eclipse. The fourth and fifth ran in a Listed race at Royal Ascot.

Inevitably, the next market move came when the Ballydoyle boys showed their hand. French Derby and eye-poppingly good Dee Stakes winner Constitution River appears to be the chosen one and at the back end of last week brought an end to Gethin's four-day reign as ante post favourite.

Somewhat surprisingly, he looks to be joined by stablemate Hawk Mountain who was second in the French Derby behind Constitution River and winner of the Group One Futurity as a juvenile, so clearly a very good horse in his own right. Flushing Meadows from the same stable is also in there as a pace angle.

For all I'm a fan of Gethin, there is no surprise at all that Constitution River is the current favourite at 5/4.

Saddadd is the apple of Roger Varian's eye. He won the Gordon Richards over course and distance April before a gallant third in the Tattersals Gold Cup a month later. A Boy Name Susie was fourth in the French Derby for Donnacha O'Brien. Kings Gambit has been supplemented by Wathnan as a pacemaker for Gethin. I did say Kings Gambit was finished...!

King George - Ascot, July 25th 2026

Of those mentioned above, Gethin is about the only horse you could see running in both the Eclipse and King George this year – that would be a novelty wouldn't it?

I always look at an ante post race initially considering who might not run. Well, my conclusion on the current King George market is that most of them at the top of the market will turn up at Ascot on July 25th.

Last year's winner Calandagan (5/2) bombed out in the Epsom bog, probably shouldn't have ran in hindsight, but likely will be back to defend his King George crown. We are told Japanese star Masquerade Ball (7/2) is all guns blazing for the mile and a half feature. Minnie Hauk (8/1) ran a screamer in the Prince Of Wales's behind Ombudsman and is crying out for a return to a mile and a half to my eye. Goliath (10/1) looked all over the winner of the Hardwicke until Christophe Soumillon lost his irons agonising close to the line. Then we are into the realms of may or may not run depending on ground (Kalpana and Bay City Roller), or the outcome of the Irish Derby this weekend.

It's a no bet at this stage for me but I would love for Minnie Hauk to run in the King George and actually think the current 5/2 Calandagan isn't short enough, given he won this at 11/10 last year and has won three further Group Ones since. Yes, there is likely to be more than five runners this time round but he is quite simply one of the world's best horses and you can put a massive line through his run at Epsom last time.

Falmouth Stakes - Newmarket, July 10th 2026

One race where I do want to bet is the Falmouth Stakes, for the fillies and mares on Friday 10th July.

There are 32 entered at this stage, where Precise heads the market at 15/8 but it's eight years since O'Brien won the Falmouth and it wouldn't be a top priority for them.

That's not to say Precise won't run and win – she might. But I wouldn't be surprised if she was to be given a break here after three runs in six weeks. Blue Bolt (3/1) is a solid alternative and we all know how unlucky Touleen (6/1) appeared in the Coronation.

I thought Balantina also ran a cracker for 95% of that Coronation before clearly lacking fitness late on. That was her first run for 231 days and she loomed up as nicely as any in the chasing pack behind the brilliant Precise. American connections have many options with Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Balantina, so I can't be 100% sure she runs in the Falmouth but it looks the logical option and a 1pt win at 10/1 is advised.

Any other business?

Then it's the July Cup on the 11th. Venetian Sun (Commonwealth winner) is 9/4, Almeraq (Jubilee winner) at 5/1 and Mission Central (King Stand winner) at 8/1. There's a whole bunch of familiar names entered at this stage and I'll need some running plans to become clearer before getting involved.

Then we are on to Goodwood at the end of the month for the Goodwood Cup, Sussex Stakes and Nassau. I'll report back on these next week.

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