Chelsea vs Arsenal: Betting tips for Carabao Cup semi-final first leg
Wed, 14 Jan 2026
Wed, 14 Jan 2026
The second EFL Cup semi-final first leg takes place on Wednesday night (January 14th, 8pm) as Chelsea host Arsenal at Stamford Bridge.
Terry Foord provides his betting analysis as two London giants aim to take a crucial step towards a Wembley trip in March.
Liam Rosenior made a winning start to his Chelsea tenure with a convincing 5-1 FA Cup victory away at Championship side Charlton on Saturday.
It was a much-needed boost for the Blues and gives them some crucial confidence and momentum heading into this semi-final first leg, given they has been winless in their five prior outings.
This will be Rosenior’s first match at Stamford Bridge, where he inherits a concerning run of form. Chelsea have won just four of their ten home league matches this season, while only Wolves, Burnley and West Ham have a worse record across the last eight Premier League fixtures. The Blues have just one win in their previous eight games in all competitions.
Meanwhile, Arsenal maintained their strong form with a 4-1 FA Cup win away at second-tier Portsmouth on Sunday.
Despite conceding more frequently over the past month, Mikel Arteta’s men remain six points clear at the top of the Premier League and have recorded seven wins and two draws in their last nine fixtures since the 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa.
In the EFL Cup, the Gunners edged past Crystal Palace in the quarter-final just before Christmas. After Marc Guehi’s 95th-minute equaliser forced penalties for the Eagles, Arsenal eventually prevailed 8-7 in the shootout.
The sides drew 1-1 at Stamford Bridge in November, but Arsenal hold a clear advantage in recent meetings.
They are unbeaten in the last eight clashes between the pair (five wins, three draws). In fact, Chelsea have not beaten Arsenal since 2021 and have not won this fixture at Stamford Bridge since 2019.
Under 2.5 goals has landed in the last three encounters, while the three before that all went over the line.
At Stamford Bridge specifically, both teams have scored in four of the last five meetings, while the last three matches at the Bridge have all finished level.
This should be a close first leg, as both teams will understand the significance of staying in the tie ahead of the decisive encounter at the Emirates.
I lean towards Arsenal overall, but with Chelsea at home and Rosenior looking to make an impression, both teams to score looks the standout angle.
For an additional Bet Builder, I’ll take Arsenal to win and both teams to score. Chelsea rank fourth in the Premier League for cards this season, with 47 yellows and five reds, whereas Arsenal have collected only 29 yellows and no reds. So, Chelsea to receive the most cards is a natural addition to the builder too.
2.75pts – Both teams to score – 8/11 (Coral)
1pt – Arsenal to win, both teams to score and Chelsea most cards – 13/2 (Bet365)
Total Staked: 3.75pts
All prices correct at the time of writing. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Terry is a sports writer and tipster with two decades of betting industry experience, most recently featuring a long stint with Punters Lounge.
A keen follower of darts, snooker, football and many other sports, Terry loves getting creative to try and find an edge and particularly enjoys trying to factor the mental side of sport into his punting.
Away from the desk, he is also a long-suffering West Ham fan.
Terry is a sports writer and tipster with two decades of betting industry experience, most recently featuring a long stint with Punters Lounge.
A keen follower of darts, snooker, football and many other sports, Terry loves getting creative to try and find an edge and particularly enjoys trying to factor the mental side of sport into his punting.
Away from the desk, he is also a long-suffering West Ham fan.
Terry's p/l
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