Portugal vs Sweden: Betting Odds & Prediction

Roberto Martinez's Portugal side host Sweden in an international friendly on Thursday.

The hosts have already secured qualification for the European Championships in the summer, while Sweden finished third in Group F and so won't appear in Germany. Kick-off is set for 7:45pm UK time.

Recent Form

Portugal

The home side head into the fixture on the back of ten consecutive victories in EURO 2024 qualifying. Portugal haven't lost a match since a 1-0 defeat to Morocco in the quarter-finals of the Qatar World Cup in 2022.

Remarkably, the Portuguese conceded just two goals in Group J, whilst scoring a total of 36 goals in the process. Both of the two goals conceded came at home.

Martinez's side averaged an expected goal (xG) tally of 2.31 goals per match which they exceeded comfortably, netting 3.6 goals per game across their ten qualifying contests. Their defensive record, as already noted, was also sublime. Their expected goals against (xGA) tally stood at 0.73 per match, yet they actually conceded just 0.2.

Portugal also kept clean sheets in 90% of their qualifying matches, whilst also finding the net themselves on every occasion. They also scored over 2.5 goals in 80% of their home matches.

Martinez confirmed his squad for the upcoming fixtures last week which featured forward Cristiano Ronaldo, who netted ten goals across their EURO 2024 Qualifying campaign. Only Romelu Lukaku of Belgium scored more (14).

Sweden

Jon Dahl Tomasson was announced as the new Sweden manager at the end of last month following the country's failure to qualify for this year's major tournament in Germany. The Dane is Sweden's first ever foreign manager, and will take charge of the reigns for the first time in Guimaraes on Thursday evening.

Sweden could only manage a third-place finish in Group F of EURO 2024 Qualifying after recording only three wins in eight matches. They finished ten points behind group leaders Belgium, and nine points behind runners-up Austria.

In their last four away games, Sweden have only won once (W1, D1, L2). They have scored six goals in that time whilst also conceding six.

They've also underperformed according to their expected goal (xG) tally. Despite averaging an xG of 1.77 per away game, Sweden have only managed to score an average of 1.5. They've failed to score in two of their last four matches on the road, whilst only keeping one clean sheet in that same timeframe.

Sweden have also conceded two or more goals in two of their last four.

Prediction

Portugal are on a roll and don't look like stopping anytime soon. Little value can be found on the moneyline however, with the home side coming in at almost 1/2 outright.

Portugal's goalscoring exploits rightly caught the eye during EURO 2024 qualifying, with their last ten averaging 3.8 goals per game in total, increasing to 4.6 in home games. Sweden have struggled going forward but still find themselves in high-scoring games, with an average of 3 goals in their last four away matches.

OddsNow's Pick: Over 3+ goals to be scored (13/10 @ vBet)