World of Wagers: Waffling on Belgium
Thu, 17 Jul 2025
Thu, 17 Jul 2025
Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into one of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.
This week's edition sees Felix focus on Belgium's Jupiler Pro League.
Whilst the last decade or so has seen the top flights of Portugal and Netherlands be the de facto leagues for top end European clubs to recruit from outside of one another, the landscape and hierarchy of where talent now assembles itself is constantly shifting and evolving.
Thanks in part to a ‘Golden Generation’ for the national side in recent years, with deep runs at both the World Cup and Euros, as well as brief stint as the world’s number one ranked side, Belgium’s Jupiler Pro League has risen the ranks to now be sat firmly in that second tier of UEFA leagues.
The performance of Belgian clubs in cross continental competition has been steadily improving, spearheaded by some excellent runs over the past three seasons by Club Brugge, and backed up this year by the likes of Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge.
Belgium's 'Golden Generation' brought a new focus to the country's domestic league. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)
More intriguingly, due to new rules on work permits enforced by Brexit, Belgium is now a hotbed for Premier League (and even Championship) owners looking to buy a partner club to circumvent the restrictions on foreign signings, whilst also allowing exciting but raw talent to develop under the club’s umbrella, with the eye to move them to the more senior side when they’re ready or selling them on for a profit.
Whilst this is nothing new (who could forget the relationship Manchester United and Royal Antwerp had for all those years), the likes of Brighton, Leicester and Manchester City have taken things to another level. As such, the league is now ripe with an abundance of talented, high upside players, and a strong batch of sides jockeying for position up and down the table.
Of the fourteen teams in the league, the top six at the end of the regular season then compete in a play off group to decide the final champion. A team on the outside looking in that I can see maybe breaking into that sextet is Charleroi.
Winless in three, the underlying numbers are more positive for them, and I currently have them as the sixth strongest side in the division. The away form does throw up a little bit of cause for concern, and they do have a couple of key players out at the moment, but this just means there could be some juicy prices about them in the next few weeks.
It may seem strange to tip up a side that have lost three on the bounce, but Mechelen are another side I could see pushing for, if not quite making, that championship play off.
It’s another side with a poor away record, and yet in spite of that, my ratings (based on market movements and underlying performance metrics) have them as Belgium’s seventh strongest side at present, and even the basic fact of them being the only side in the bottom half with a positive goal difference points towards this.
They’re a side without a true star, but have a raft of players who can chip in with big moments and goal contributions. Keep an eye on them as the season reaches its climax.
Rik De Mil's Charleroi are a side to keep an eye on in the Belgian top-flight. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)
For either side above to make that top six, someone must fall above them. Sadly, it’s Standard Liege that are ringing the loudest alarm bells for me.
The complete opposite of Mechelen, having won their last three on the trot, Liege have a -6 goal difference, far below any of their peers towards the top of the table, and they’ve been plummeting down my ratings in spite of good surface level results, which has led to them shockingly been classed as the third worst side.
They have a point gap to Gent (and five to Charleroi) but if the wheels do fall off, and the cracks can no longer be papered over – especially with first choice GK Matthieu Epolo out amongst others – it could be a tough run in.
At the other end of the table, the bottom four also have their own play off round to decide who suffers relegation.
Whilst they have a five point safety net to this perilous zone at present, Dender should keep an eye over their shoulder. Their form has stuttered of late, and to me, they’re a side that lacks goals, particularly at home.
Whilst a few players have chipped in here and there, it isn’t as consistent an effort as Mechelen’s to cover for lacking one or two real standout players, and even if they do end up safe from the drop, the lack of form and potential lack of motivation in the final few weeks could be a reason to try and oppose them.
A poor goal return has hindered Dender in forward areas. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)
Antwerp have not been at their best this season, but they’re still one of the nation’s strongest sides and I think this is a good spot to play Brugge.
They face Manchester City in a huge Champions League clash on Wednesday night and whilst the result is unknown as I write this, I just think playing Brugge this weekend won’t see them at their best either way.
There’s a lot of energy to be expanded at the Etihad regardless of the eventual outcome and Antwerp strike me as a team strong enough to take advantage of that potential lethargy.
A bit more of a punt here, but my ratings have this tie between two of the league’s worst sides as a bit more of a dead heat.
Neither side are out of the race to escape the dreaded relegation group, and sometimes these six pointers can go absolutely wild. Given both side’s scoring records so far, I can see why the price is as big as it is, but for me there’s just enough chance of a wild, end-to-end game to make me want to chance this.
I can see both teams contributing if that is to be the case.
I am really shocked at this price if I’m honest. For a side that concedes fewer than a goal a game, and is a strong (and shortening) odds-on shot at home against a side that scores in three of every four away games, it’s a bet I simply cannot turn down.
Yes, RUSG have a tricky Europa League trip to Glasgow this midweek, but their spot in the knockouts is all but secure barring an unlikely set of results, and they are not likely to be missing any key players either.
St Truiden on the other hand do have a key forward missing in exciting young American Kahveh Zahiroleslam. I could be made to look very silly here but I don’t see this much bigger than an even money play, so the value seems excellent.
I hope you’ve enjoyed your whistle stop tour of the Belgian top flight, and best of luck with any selections you place this weekend and beyond! Join me next time as we hop on a plane to elsewhere in the world in the pursuit of some value…
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Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.
As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.
Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.
Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.
As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.
Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.
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