World of Wagers: Double Deutsch

Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into one of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

This week, Felix hones in on Germany's 2. Bundesliga.

Ah, the 2. Bundesliga – the land of sleeping German giants. Just a quick scan down the names that currently occupy the table in the second division will leave you scratching your head at about a third of them going, ‘I’m sure they were a fixture in the top flight?!’.

And to some extent you’d be right, as many of the traditionally ‘bigger’ clubs have fallen on hard times in recent seasons. Schalke, Koln, Hamburg and Hertha, amongst others, have fallen victim to both the ultra-competitive nature of Germany’s footballing pyramid, but also very bad mismanagement in an age where Bundesliga clubs have been some of the shining examples set as to how best to run a club as both a business and a fan led interest.

Add to that mix a handful of sides who have solidified themselves in the second tier after coming up through the regional leagues (fourth tier and below in Germany) and we have an intriguing concoction of footballing talent here, all of which adds up to tremendous value each and every game week.

Germany's second division is home to a number of established top-flight sides. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Leans - two teams to keep on side

Whilst their name does not carry the weight as those previously mentioned, Hannover certainly fit into that camp of long-established Bundesliga sides now experiencing somewhat of a dip.

Currently sat in eighth, with 35 points, and a healthy +6 goal difference, Hannover’s season is far from over. Just seven points separate first and ninth, and based on my ratings (which use a blend of results, underlying predictive performance metrics and market closing lines), I make Hannover the third strongest side in the division.

Despite having a couple of key injuries for the coming weeks, I wouldn’t like to back against the quality and experience in this squad, particularly with veterans Marcel Halstenberg and Ron-Robert Zieler, making a strong push for the top three before the season’s out.

Hannover remain a strong outfit despite their recent slump. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

At the other end of the table, it looks as though Hertha Berlin may have just about eased any fears over a catastrophic drop to the third tier, sitting five points clear of the relegation playoff.

Despite what on the surface is a pretty awful season for such a club, the underlying numbers paint a slightly more positive picture. My models make them around the 7th or 8th best side, and if said relegation woes are indeed confirmed to be eased, then they could easily be a side to get with as they look to try and build momentum heading into 2025/26.

With talents such as Michael Cuisance and Michal Karbownik, there is cause for cautious optimism in the capital.

Fades - two teams to oppose

It’s been just over a quarter of a century since Kaiserslautern shocked the nation by winning the Bundesliga title as a promoted side – the only team ever to do so.

The resulting seasons have been a real rollercoaster, with a trip to the third tier and general so-so performances the overarching trend.

Despite currently being sat in third (which earns you a playoff against the 16th placed top division side), the performances have yet again been middling. They have the worst goal difference of any of the top eight sides (+5), and my ratings point to them being closer to 12th.

In a race as tight as this one, they do feel like one side who has a strong chance of falling off the pace

Greuther Furth may well be most famous for being the side Matthew Benham’s algorithms detected were playing at a Premier League standard whilst storming to a third place 2. Bundesliga finish, leading to Benham’s club Midtjylland signing midfielder Tim Sparv.

There’s not a huge difference between where Furth currently sit (11th) and where my model has them (14th), but I just feel that with very little to play for between now and season’s end, they could be a side to try and oppose if this isn’t factored in too strongly.

Best Bundesliga 2 bets for February 28 - March 2, 2025

Fortuna Dusseldorf to beat Greuther Furth - 1.80 (William Hill/Betway)

Straight in with opposing the apathetic Greuther Furth, as they face a Dusseldorf side in the hunt for a top three berth.

I’d imagine the price is only this big because quirkily Dusseldorf have been a much stronger side on the road than at home this season.

However, Furth themselves are no great shakes away from home either, so I’m happy to take a chance on the home side to get the job done here, with no frills.

Jahn Regensburg/Draw DC vs Kaiserslautern - 2.20 (Betfair)

And why not get straight in and oppose our other fade here?

Regensburg are bottom, and rightfully so according to my ratings, and their away record is rather dire. That being said, money has come for them and looks to be continuing to do so.

Kaiserslautern’s home form is middling, and as said above, there is a good chance we see some regression with them soon, so lets get on the biggest price anyone is likely to be against them for the remainder of the season.

Eintracht Braunschweig -0.25 AH vs Ulm - 2.05 (Bet365)

Let’s lastly turn our attention to a battle at the bottom as 16th host 17th. My money is going on Braunschweig to extend the gap here, particularly given Ulm’s lack of firepower on the road.

I wanted a bit of security here, so we will get half our stake back here if the match ends in a draw, and the full cash of course if Braunschweig win.

I see it being a rather cagey affair that the home side, in decent nick of late, should just edge.

I hope you’ve enjoyed your whistle stop tour of the German second division, and best of luck with any selections you place this weekend and beyond! Join me next time as we hop on a plane to elsewhere in the world in the pursuit of some value…

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