World Grand Prix final 2024: Predictions and best bets for Humphries vs De Decker

An epic week of darts concludes this evening as red-hot favourite Luke Humphries takes on Belgian surprise package Mike De Decker in the World Grand Prix final.

As he has done all week, our resident arrows expert Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) is on hand to preview the showpiece and flag up his best bets.

Well, we could hardly have asked for a better week of action to display exactly why the World Grand Prix is such a special and unique tournament, could we?

While all the majors bring quality and drama in their droves, the sheer unpredictability of this event means even making the most obvious of match predictions is done with genuine trepidation.

Just ask Mike De Decker, the 150/1 pre-tournament rag who has cruised his way into the final with devastatingly dependable D16 hitting, sublime scoring and fabulous combination finishing.

Kind draw? Quite the opposite. The Real Deal’s victim list in Leicester reads as a who’s who of darts. World Cup winner Damon Heta, two-time world champion Gary Anderson, bonafide darting legend James Wade and multiple major winner Dimitri Van den Bergh — all disposed of for the loss of just three sets.

Then on the opposite side of the draw, 200/1 no-hoper Ryan Joyce also made a mockery of his price by grinding his way past Josh Rock, Nathan Aspinall and Rob Cross before eventually being halted via a Luke Humphries masterclass.

In coming up short to the world champion, Joyce averaged 94.42, which is a rough equivalent of 104 in a standard format. It was only a generational performance from Humphries that saw him whitewashed, with Cool Hand becoming only the third man ever to post a 100+ average in a best-of-nine sets clash (Phil Taylor and Michael van Gerwen being the other two, obviously).

As well as being a great leveller, this format also seems to give the so-called "lesser" players that all-important self-belief when facing the best, which I maintain is the difference between the good and the great in this game.

De Decker continues to impress with his mindset and if he wins tonight, perhaps he can follow in Humphries' footsteps by using this as a springboard to great things.

He certainly has the talent to do so. However, tonight, I fear he may come up against an immovable force.

On a personal perspective, a return of 26.54pts from 24 single selections means we are at a 10%+ ROI for the tournament to a level stake.

I could have just called this a no-bet clash and locked in a profitable week but that's not really my style...

World Grand Prix darts final prediction and betting tips

Mike De Decker plays in his first major final this evening (Alamy)

Unsurprisingly, the bookmakers have this down as an extremely one-sided clash. Humphries is no bigger than 2/11 to defend his crown while De Decker is a whopping 5/1 for the upset.

I argued yesterday that Joyce had been disrespected by the betting market and felt partly vindicated by his outstanding performance — yet it still wasn’t enough for him to get a set!

Humphries had been playing in patches prior to last night, as displayed by averages of 89, 92 and 86 in his first three outings.

Yet when the occasion dictated it, he delivered the most complete of complete performances. It was frankly unplayable and the kind of showing which should strike fear into the PDC’s other leading lights.

A repeat effort tonight, which is improbable but far from impossible, will blow De Decker away too. It’s that simple.

My advice to the Belgian would be to take some advice from his walk-on song when it comes to what his opponent is doing tonight — “don’t worry”.

All the underdog can do is concentrate on his own game and replicating the things that have taken him this far, namely his excellent doubling in at the start of legs.

If that D16 remains slick and reliable, he can keep himself in the contest and pinch legs, though you feel he’s going to be getting off at north of 50% to have a chance of the title.

Unders on 180s could be the play...

The 180s line seems obscenely high for a double-in format to me and while I am a bit scared of taking on these two in the maximum stakes, I think it has to be done.

18.5 180s is a hefty amount in any game, never mind a major final where you are starting on a double.

Nerves were apparent early for De Decker against Van den Bergh and though he got over them after winning set two, you’d have to worry about his reaction if Humphries races into a commanding lead like he did last night.

Even without that, Grand Prix finals rarely produce such tallies of maximums. The last four years, for context, have produced totals of 15, 12, 15 and 11 — and those were showpieces featuring big 180 hitters like Gerwyn Price, Dirk van Duijvenbode, Van Gerwen and Humphries.

Put it this way, if there is to be such a high number of 180s, we will have witnessed a true classic and that’ll be a nice tonic for me doing my dough!

Realistically though, the bookies are expecting a one-sided affair so you should side with them by backing the unders line on the 180s.

As for a fun correct score poke, I just can’t see beyond Humphries here so I’ll back him to do it comfortably. Unlike Joyce, I expect De Decker to get on the board but much more than that feels a stretch.

Let’s try Humphries to win 6-2 at an easily available 9/2.

Matt Hill's World Grand Prix betting tips — Sunday, October 13

Under 18.5 180s - 5/4 (SkyBet)
Under 17.5 180s - 17/10 (vBet)
Under 16.5 180s - 5/2 (SkyBet)
Humphries to win 6-2 - 9/2 (general)