Arsenal vs Chelsea: Betting tips for Sunday's London derby
Fri, 27 Feb 2026
Fri, 27 Feb 2026
There’s a huge Super Sunday clash this weekend at 4:30pm GMT as Arsenal host Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium in a match with major implications for both the title race and Champions League qualification.
Odds Now football tipster Terry Foord provides his take on the early kick-off in the English top flight on Saturday and offers up his best bets.
Arsenal are currently five points clear at the top of the table, albeit having played a game more than Manchester City. At the time of writing, City’s result at Leeds is unknown, meaning the gap could shrink to as little as two points again. With the two sides still to face each other, the title race remains wide open — great news for neutrals, but nerve-shredding for fans.
Mikel Arteta’s side have slowed slightly after a dominant start to the campaign. In their last six league matches they have recorded three wins, two draws and one defeat — solid, but not title-crushing form. That run leaves them fifth in the recent form table. One major positive is that this fixture is at the Emirates, where Arsenal have been outstanding all season. Only Manchester City boast a better home record.
Chelsea also arrives with plenty at stake as they attempt to keep pace with Manchester United in the race for Champions League football. They sit three points behind United, and back-to-back draws have stalled their momentum at a crucial time. With five Champions League places likely available this season, Liverpool lurking just behind them makes every point vital.
Liam Rosenior endured a shaky start to his tenure but has stabilised things impressively. Chelsea are unbeaten in six league matches, winning four and drawing two. Underlying metrics remain strong too — their xG (expected goals) sits at an excellent 2.1 per game, the highest in the division, while their xGA is just under 1.5. On the road, Chelsea’s attacking numbers are particularly impressive, averaging over 2.0 xG per away match — second only to Arsenal.
Arsenal holds a commanding recent record in this fixture, especially at home. Across all competitions they are unbeaten in the last ten meetings, winning seven and drawing three. Notably, all three draws came at Stamford Bridge, while the last three encounters at the Emirates have all ended in Arsenal victories.
Goals have been balanced. Four of the last eight meetings have produced over 2.5 goals, while both teams have scored in five of those matches. However, Arsenal have tightened up defensively in recent home clashes against Chelsea, conceding just one goal across the last three at the Emirates — including a resounding 5-0 win in April 2024.
Arsenal themselves have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with over 2.5 goals landing in five of their last six league matches. They have scored at least two goals in five of those games and are unbeaten in twelve of their last thirteen overall.
Chelsea’s matches have also delivered entertainment. Both teams have scored in each of their last five Premier League outings, with over 2.5 goals landing in four of those fixtures.
The sides also met in the EFL Cup semi-final earlier this season, with Arsenal prevailing 3-2 away and 1-0 at home — further evidence of their recent dominance in the matchup.
Arsenal looks the most likely winners given their formidable home record and clear superiority in recent head-to-head meetings. While both teams scoring initially appealed, Arsenal’s defensive solidity against Chelsea at the Emirates suggests a more controlled outcome.
The safer angle is Arsenal to win combined with under 3.5 goals, which allows for a routine 2-0 or 2-1 type victory while still offering solid value.
For the bet builder, sticking close to the main angle makes sense. Chelsea’s disciplinary record on the road is notably worse than Arsenal’s at home. The Blues have collected 33 yellow cards and three red cards away from home, compared to just 12 yellows for Arsenal at the Emirates. Chelsea to receive the most cards is, therefore, a logical addition.
2pts – Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals – 11/8 (PaddyPower)
1pt – Arsenal to win, under three goals and Chelsea most cards – 11/2 (Bet365)
Total staked - 3pts
All prices correct at the time of writing. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Terry is a sports writer and tipster with two decades of betting industry experience, most recently featuring a long stint with Punters Lounge.
A keen follower of darts, snooker, football and many other sports, Terry loves getting creative to try and find an edge and particularly enjoys trying to factor the mental side of sport into his punting.
Away from the desk, he is also a long-suffering West Ham fan.
Terry is a sports writer and tipster with two decades of betting industry experience, most recently featuring a long stint with Punters Lounge.
A keen follower of darts, snooker, football and many other sports, Terry loves getting creative to try and find an edge and particularly enjoys trying to factor the mental side of sport into his punting.
Away from the desk, he is also a long-suffering West Ham fan.
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