Brighton vs Aston Villa: Betting Odds & Prediction

Brighton and Hove Albion host Champions League-chasing Aston Villa in an intriguing Premier League clash at the AMEX Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Villa travel to the South coast aiming to consolidate fourth place, while the hosts sit twelfth after a difficult few months. Unai Emery's men ran riot to record their biggest victory of the season in the reverse fixture back in September, winning 6-1.

Kick-off is set for 2pm UK time on Sunday.

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Brighton

Roberto De Zerbi is currently enduring his most difficult spell as Brighton manager, having seen his side go winless in their last six Premier League outings. They were soundly beaten 3-0 last weekend at Bournemouth, which closely followed a 4-0 home defeat to Manchester City.

Their winless April has seen the Seagulls slip out of European contention and given them little to play for in the remaining weeks of the season. The only goal that Brighton mustered in their five matches in April, was the calamitous own goal gifted to them by Burnley goalkeeper Arijanet Muric. Their alarming run owes largely to their uncharacteristic goal drought, as well as a porous defence which has seen them concede 11 in their last four games.

Much of Brighton’s success this season has come at the Amex, with seven of their eleven Premier League victories coming on home turf.

Brighton have scored 52 goals so far this season, at an average of 1.53 per match, slightly lower than their XG figure of 1.65. The encouragement for Brighton is that 29 of their season tally has come at home, averaging 1.75 per home match. 75% of the Premier League matches contested at the Amex Stadium this season have seen both teams score.

After their bruising few weeks, De Zerbi’s team have conceded 57 goals this season at an average of 1.68 per match, considerably higher than their xGA figure of 1.34.

Aston Villa

It's been a hectic week for Aston Villa, which has seen them lose a two goal lead in their 2-2 draw with Chelsea last weekend and lose 4-2 in a chaotic first leg of their Europa Conference League semi final tie with Olympiacos.

Their strong Premier League form of late has seen them maintain their grip on a Champions League spot, having gone four matches unbeaten, including impressive victories over Arsenal and Bournemouth. Their away form has been key in their success, having recorded eight away league wins so far this campaign, to go alongside their twelve at Villa Park.

Unai Emery’s team have scored an impressive 73 league goals this season, at an average of 2.09 per match, significantly outperforming their xG stat of 1.50. Ollie Watkins has 19 league goals, and is one of the main protagonists in the race for the Golden Boot.

Villa have shipped 52 league goals, at an average of 1.49 per match. This figure is higher at 1.59 away from home, while 65% of their matches on the road this season have seen both teams score.

Their trip to the seaside comes at the perfect time as they look to dispense the disappointment of Thursday, while attempting to pull even further clear of Spurs in the race for fourth place.

Prediction

Brighton’s recent struggles, alongside Aston Villa’s steady march towards a top four finish, sees Unai Emery’s team enter as steady favourites for the weekend clash. Spurred on by the woes of midweek, expect the Villains to claim three crucial points this weekend, to condemn Brighton to yet another defeat.