Burnley vs Chelsea: Betting tips for Saturday lunchtime kick-off
Fri, 21 Nov 2025
Fri, 21 Nov 2025
This weekend’s early kick-off on Saturday, 12:30 pm GMT, brings us a clash of two sides heading in very different directions as Burnley welcome Chelsea to Turf Moor in the Premier League.
Burnley find themselves hovering just above the relegation zone, while Chelsea are building momentum and growing into genuine title contenders.
Odds Now football tipster Terry Foord is back on domestic duty after his winning tips for the Albania vs England game during the international break. He looks to break down the numbers, the angles, and the best bets for this upcoming match.
Burnley’s season has been one of flickers of promise followed by long spells of struggle. After back-to-back wins in October, Scott Parker’s men looked like they might finally be turning a corner.
Instead, they have slipped straight back into trouble with two consecutive defeats and now sit above seventeenth-placed West Ham on goal difference alone.
Turf Moor hasn’t been the fortress Burnley would have hoped for, but their home defensive numbers do offer some encouragement. They’ve conceded just seven goals across their five home matches—starkly better than the eighteen they’ve shipped on the road.
That said, the trade-off has been the complete lack of cutting-edge in attack. The Clarets have scored only four goals at home this season, and their underlying metrics don’t offer reassurance either. Their home xG sits at a modest 0.7 per match, while the xGa of 1.9 shows how often they allow opponents to create quality chances.
Chelsea, meanwhile, arrive in superb form. Enzo Maresca has shaped this side into a confident, fluid unit that now sits third in the league and just six points behind Arsenal.
Four wins from their last five matches underline how strong they’ve become, but it’s their away form that truly stands out. Chelsea have won three of their five away matches, losing only once, and a victory here would place them top of the Premier League away table.
The Blues have posted an impressive 2.2 xG per match on the road—second only to Liverpool. That demonstrates the level of attacking threat they carry away from Stamford Bridge.
Just as importantly, they also possess the third-best away xGa in the league, showing how well-balanced this Chelsea team now looks at both ends.
History strongly favours Chelsea in this fixture. The Blues are unbeaten in the last ten meetings, winning seven and drawing three. The most recent match ended 2-2 at Stamford Bridge, but Turf Moor has been brutal for Burnley in recent years. Chelsea won 4-1 and 4-0 on their last two visits.
This is also a fixture that consistently delivers goals. Over 2.5 goals have landed in each of the last three meetings and in eight of the last ten overall. At Turf Moor specifically, Chelsea have scored nineteen goals in their last five visits—an extraordinary record that highlights just how dominant they’ve been in this matchup.
It’s hard to make a case against Chelsea here. Their form, their away numbers, and their frightening recent record at Turf Moor all point in the same direction.
They’re playing with confidence, scoring freely, and controlling games in a way they haven’t for several seasons. The big question is simply whether Burnley can contribute to the scoreline.
My main angle is goals, and Chelsea may well be capable of clearing the over 2.5 line by themselves. The handicap also appeals, given how one-sided this fixture tends to be.
The bet builder leans into Chelsea’s key performers, with both Pedro Neto and Joao Pedro offering form, output, and consistent involvement in the final third.
2.5pts – Over 2.5 goals – 4/5 (Bet365)
2pts – Chelsea to win (-1 handicap) – 11/8 (Bet365)
0.5pts bet builder – Joao Pedro score or assist, Chelsea to win, over 2.5 goals, Pedro Neto to have 1+ shot on target and 1+ Chelsea corner 3/1 (Bet365)
All prices correct at the time of writing. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Terry is a sports writer and tipster with two decades of betting industry experience, most recently featuring a long stint with Punters Lounge.
A keen follower of darts, snooker, football and many other sports, Terry loves getting creative to try and find an edge and particularly enjoys trying to factor the mental side of sport into his punting.
Away from the desk, he is also a long-suffering West Ham fan.
Terry is a sports writer and tipster with two decades of betting industry experience, most recently featuring a long stint with Punters Lounge.
A keen follower of darts, snooker, football and many other sports, Terry loves getting creative to try and find an edge and particularly enjoys trying to factor the mental side of sport into his punting.
Away from the desk, he is also a long-suffering West Ham fan.
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