Juventus vs Genoa: Betting Odds & Prediction

Juventus hope to end their horrific run of form as they host mid-table Genoa on Sunday morning.

Genoa are unbeaten in their last two matches against Juve, with the reverse fixture ending in a 1-1 draw. Kick-off is set for 11:30am UK time at the Allianz Arena.

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Juventus

The Bianconeri have only won one of their last seven games, gaining six of the last 21 points available and five out of the last 12 available at home.

During their last four home games, Juve had 63 shots however only scored six goals, averaging a shot conversion rate of 9.52%. Despite this, the combined expected goals (xG) tally from the four games was 6.01, signifying Juve’s inability to break down defences in recent weeks, leading to low-quality chances. This is an issue that Juve will have to find a solution to if they are to start winning again.

Across the entire league season, Juve have slightly underperformed according to their xG in home games (1.59), scoring 22 goals in 14 games, equating to 1.57 goals per game. Juventus have scored just the seventh highest amount of home goals this season, despite finding themselves in third in Serie A.

After serving a one-match suspension, they will be relieved to have top scorer Dusan Vlahovic back. The Serbian has contributed to 43.19% of Juve’s goals this season, providing 15 goals and four assists, and has scored 60% of his goals at home.

Defensively, Juve have been exceeding their expected goals against (1.06 at home), conceding 0.71 goals per home game, and keeping a clean sheet in 43% of their home matches. However, after conceding only four goals in their first ten home matches, Juve have conceded six in their last four, having not kept a clean sheet at home since mid-January.

Genoa

The away side come into this game 12th in the table, nine points clear of the relegation zone despite having been newly promoted heading into this season. They have won only once in their last five games, losing their last two, but have faced top-ten opposition in four of these games.

Genoa have considerably improved away from home since the start of the season, when they gained four points from their first eight away matches. In the six away matches that followed, they picked up nine points, drawing to both 4th-placed Bologna and last year’s champions Napoli whilst only losing to league leaders Inter Milan.

Due to their much-improved away results, Genoa are now the seventh-worst away team in the league, gaining 0.93 points per game on their travels. They have outperformed their expected away goals against (1.43), conceding 17 in 14 matches (1.21 a game), the joint fourth-lowest number of away goals conceded in the league. Six of Genoa’s seven away losses have been via one-goal margins.

Alberto Gilardino, the Genoa manager, sets his team up to be extremely hard to beat which has impacted their xG tally, especially away from home. Genoa have the second-worst away xG in Serie A (0.84), although they have slightly exceeded this, scoring 0.86 away goals a game.

Prediction

Juventus come in as favourites despite their recent struggles on home soil. Sitting at 8/13, there's little value in backing the home side on the moneyline. Genoa's conservative approach is likely to lead to a low-scoring encounter, with a low-scoring encounter a suitable pick.

OddsNow's Pick: Under 2 goals scored (19/10 @ StarSports)