Latvia vs England: 10/11 and 6/1 punts as Three Lions hunt World Cup berth
England can secure their spot at the 2026 World Cup with two games to spare providing they secure an expected success over minnows Latvia in Riga this evening.
Football tipster Matt Hill takes a look at the betting markets for Tuesday’s contest in the quest of some value, with two wagers advised.
If the Thomas Tuchel reign got off to a sluggish start, two commanding successes over Serbia and Wales in their most recent outings should have quashed any niggling doubts.
The 5-0 biltzing in Belgrade last month felt like a defining moment for the German. Having limped past Albania, Latvia and Andorra (twice) without racking up any cricket scores – with a surprise home friendly defeat to Senegal also wedged in between for good measure – critics were already starting to sharpen their knives.
However, in what was unquestionably his toughest fixture to date, Tuchel oversaw an emphatic victory featuring all the hallmarks his impressive club coaching career has centred around. Monopolising possession, purposeful passing and an XI who know their roles to a tee.
Clearly, he is already forming preferences in certain areas in terms of personnel but while different faces may be offered an opportunity in low-key fixtures, his structure and philosophy looks unlikely to deviate much.
England were subsequently fast out of the blocks against Wales, firing in three early goals before managing the game expertly.
With another few days on the training pitch under their belt, it’s fair to expect another strong performance in Riga.
Latvia have endured a dire qualifying campaign, picking up just five points from their six fixtures – four of which came against Andorra, the world’s 174th-ranked team (just below St Vincent and the Grenadines).
While their 3-0 loss at Wembley in March looks somewhat respectable in terms of scoreline, they offered absolutely no attacking threat and had to soak up 27 shots from a Three Lions side still visibly adjusting to their new coach’s demands.
Apart from the obvious gulf in class between the two sides, the hosts’ confidence is likely to be on the floor having squandered a lead in their last home match to the lowly Andorrans.
That 2-2 draw marked the first time Andorra had netted more than once in a tournament qualifying match since 2021 against San Marino. An unwanted accolade, indeed.
A visit from the group giants is the last thing Paolo Nicolato’s men will be fancying right now and I think this contest has a potential to get messy for the Latvians.
It can be hard to squeeze juice out of games where the favourite is no bigger than 1/18 for victory but the Bet365 Bet Builder tool comes in handy in such situations.
First, we can confidently add BTTS No. Latvia have blanked against Albania, Serbia and England already in Group K and there’s little chance of that theme changing tonight – particularly given the Three Lions are yet to concede a goal in this qualifying campaign.
As mentioned, I also think there’s good reason to think this will become a dominant away victory.
Traditionally, England have sometimes made hard work of these type of games but there is clear recent improvement from Tuchel’s men and sometimes being away from the demands of a Wembley crowd seems to have favoured England.
In the Nations League last year, they enjoyed three comfortable road victories over Greece (0-3), Finland (1-3) and Ireland (0-2), all against superior opposition to Latvia.
The hosts’ general tactic is to frustrate opponents but with their confidence so low and England’s tails so high, an early goal could see things really unravel.
Adding England to win both halves – i.e. separating the 45 minute chunks into two separate contests – feels a sound way of getting a comfortable victory on side.
That combination pays 10/11 and looks a rock solid wager.
To bolster that further for a more ambitious long shot, I am happy to add in three more legs to our Bet Builder – starting with under 2 England cards.
Having a lot of possession and dominance generally lends itself to far less flashpoints in a game, and so it has proven thus far in Group K.
The Three Lions have avoided the referee’s notebook on two occasions and picked up just a solitary booking their other three wins.
Let’s also add England over 12.5 free-kicks.
In the reverse fixture, England took a total of 15 free-kicks, 11 of which were picked up through fouls. It’s clear the Latvians have a long night ahead of them and such attempts to break up the play are likely to be even more present in front of a home crowd demanding commitment to the cause.
Finally, let’s chance England to score four or more goals. It ties in with all the other logic applied and rounds off a 6/1 chance that feels a very lively runner as Tuchel’s men book their inevitable World Cup spot.
4pts - England to win both halves vs Latvia and keep a clean sheet - 10/11 (Bet365 Bet Builder)
1pt - England to win both halves vs Latvia, keep a clean sheet, under 2 England cards, over 12.5 England free-kicks and England to score four or more goals - 6/1 (Bet365 Bet Builder)
Total staked - 5pts
Matt Hill is Odds Now's Head of Content and leads our digital operation, while also offering his insight as a tipster across darts and football.
Having worked in the industry for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with Betfred and LiveScore, Matt joined the project in May 2024 with the sole aim of making Odds Now a key player in the betting content space.
He has also forged a reputation as a respected darts tipster, landing numerous three-figure outright winners over the years, while his love for lower league football also helps him pick out the odd obscure winner in that space.
When not at the editorial desk, Matt enjoys travelling the country supporting his beloved Carlisle United FC, chucking a few arrows and spending time with his young family.
Matt Hill is Odds Now's Head of Content and leads our digital operation, while also offering his insight as a tipster across darts and football.
Having worked in the industry for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with Betfred and LiveScore, Matt joined the project in May 2024 with the sole aim of making Odds Now a key player in the betting content space.
He has also forged a reputation as a respected darts tipster, landing numerous three-figure outright winners over the years, while his love for lower league football also helps him pick out the odd obscure winner in that space.
When not at the editorial desk, Matt enjoys travelling the country supporting his beloved Carlisle United FC, chucking a few arrows and spending time with his young family.
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