
Thu, 05 Feb 2026
We have a Friday evening fixture this weekend with an 8pm GMT kick-off as Leeds host Nottingham Forest in a genuine “six-pointer” at Elland Road. Both teams will be looking for a much-needed victory here to ease their relegation worries.
Odds Now football tipster Terry Foord breaks down the key insights and betting tips for the big game that could provide a memorable result for either team.
Leeds come into this match with just one win from their last seven league games, although it is fair to say they have faced some difficult opponents during that run.
As has been mentioned before, home form is crucial for Leeds, and wins over Fulham and Crystal Palace in recent months, alongside draws against Liverpool and Manchester United, are the type of results that could ultimately keep them in the division.
Daniel Farke’s side were comfortably beaten 4-0 by Arsenal at Elland Road last weekend, but prior to that defeat, they had recorded three wins and two draws in their previous five home matches. Leeds have also reached the last sixteen of the FA Cup, where they face a very winnable tie against Birmingham.
Nottingham Forest sits seventeenth in the table, one place below Leeds, and level on points and goal difference. It really could not be much tighter between the two teams.
Forest come into the match after a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace in a game they arguably should have won. Dropping two points in that match dented both Forest’s and Palace’s hopes of pulling away from the relegation battle.
Sean Dyche’s side have won two of their last six matches, but their recent league form is steadier, with two wins and two draws in their last four Premier League games. Away from home, Forest are chasing a third successive victory after recent wins at West Ham and Brentford.
Nottingham Forest holds the edge in the recent head-to-head record. They beat Leeds 3-1 at home just three months ago and, prior to that meeting, Leeds had managed only one win in the previous eight encounters, with Forest winning four and the remaining three ending in draws.
Many of those matches, however, date back more than five years. It is also worth noting that Leeds won the most recent meeting at Elland Road in 2023, recording a 2-1 victory.
In Premier League meetings between the two clubs, both teams have scored in two of the three matches, and over 2.5 goals have landed in two of those games as well.
I expect this to be a game in which both teams find the net. Leeds post a home expected goals figure of 1.7, with an expected goals against figure of 1.24. Forest, meanwhile, average just 0.8 expected goals, but concede an average of 1.7 expected goals against.
I like Leeds in the bet builder. The home side has won the last two meetings between the clubs, and I am happy to follow that trend again here. We have also seen both teams score in the last two head-to-head matches, so I will combine that with Leeds to win and move into the cards market as well.
Forest have picked up 21 cards across twelve away league matches this season, an average of 1.75 per game, while Leeds average 1.66. In a fixture of this importance, it would be no surprise to see both sides go into the book.
2.5pts – Both teams to score – 4/5 (Bet365)
1pt – Leeds to win, both teams to score and both teams to get a card – 5/1 (Bet365)
All prices correct at the time of writing. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Terry is a sports writer and tipster with two decades of betting industry experience, most recently featuring a long stint with Punters Lounge.
A keen follower of darts, snooker, football and many other sports, Terry loves getting creative to try and find an edge and particularly enjoys trying to factor the mental side of sport into his punting.
Away from the desk, he is also a long-suffering West Ham fan.
Terry is a sports writer and tipster with two decades of betting industry experience, most recently featuring a long stint with Punters Lounge.
A keen follower of darts, snooker, football and many other sports, Terry loves getting creative to try and find an edge and particularly enjoys trying to factor the mental side of sport into his punting.
Away from the desk, he is also a long-suffering West Ham fan.
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"I will give everything." 💯 Stefan Ortega's first Forest interview. 🎬