
Wed, 04 Feb 2026
Odds Now’s resident football data expert Felix Morson-Pate is back with his latest World Of Wagers column, where he heads on a quest for value across some of football’s more obscure leagues.
Spain, Germany, and Belgium are on this week's itinerary as he provides three betting tips for Saturday, February 7th, 2026.
These selections are all based on deriving value from my own ratings, which are based on a combination of underlying performance data and market opening and closing lines to determine the true strengths of teams, both in general and in their home/away splits.
All prices quoted are with Bet365. Let’s get into this week’s three picks!
It feels as though, at times this season, Sociedad, and indeed La Liga in general, are being priced up a little on reputation rather than results. Generally, the low-scoring kings, their games this season are seeing over 2.7 goals on average, with one of the highest BTTS rates across all of Europe. This is almost perfectly tracked by their underlying numbers, too, suggesting these kinds of proportions are no fluke over halfway through the campaign.
They host a rather fun-to-watch Elche side, who have been drastically overperforming at both ends of the pitch and are likely due for some regression, both in the rates they are conceding and scoring goals. We’ll back the hot streak to continue just a little longer, and back both teams to contribute to the scoreline this weekend.
I think Dortmund will sneakily be harbouring ambitions of a very slim title challenge, showing some blistering league form of late and seeing the Bayern juggernaut wobble slightly above them. They travel to a side in Wolfsburg, who are having a pretty poor season, sitting just a point above the relegation playoff spot.
Both sides tend to see goals in their games (backed by the more advanced metrics), and my ratings make Dortmund an even stronger chance here than the market, so all of that combines to see us win half our stake with a single goal victory and a full cash if they triumph by two goals or more. In what could be a fairly open and chaotic affair, I can see something akin to a 3-1, 4-2 on the cards, which would do us right.
I very rarely back draws in football, but if you put a gun to my head to back one this weekend, this game might be the one I have to go for. That might be surprising as Charleroi come into the game off the back of four straight wins (the last 3 of which have been 2-0, crucially for us with this bet) whilst Cercle have had a proper mixed bag of a season as a whole.
Both sides have tended to see pretty low-scoring affairs, with plenty seeing a couple of goals, but rarely more than that, and that plays into our hands here. We keep the 2-0 onside alongside a very strong runner (in both mine and my model’s opinion) in the 1-1 draw, and I just see this playing out as a tight affair that the home side probably should just edge, but will make hard work of doing so.
Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.
As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.
Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.
Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.
As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.
Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.
Felix's p/l
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