
Thu, 22 Jan 2026
Odds Now’s resident football data expert Felix Morson-Pate is back with his latest World Of Wagers column, where he heads on a quest for value across some of football’s more obscure leagues.
France, Spain, and Turkey are on this week's radar as he offers up three betting fancies for Saturday, January 24th, 2026.
These selections are all based on deriving value from my own ratings, which are based on a combination of underlying performance data and market opening and closing lines to determine the true strengths of teams, both in general and in their home/away splits.
All prices quoted are with Bet365. Let’s get into this week’s three picks!
3rd host 1st in this intriguing French top-flight match-up this weekend, as league leaders Lens (a point above the PSG juggernaut) travel to a Marseille side who will be fresh off a midweek test against Liverpool.
The game itself sees a bit of a clash of styles as the sides’ games on average see the 2nd most and 3rd fewest per 90, respectively. In this instance, I fancy Marseille to draw Lens into a shootout based on the game's context.
Marseille themselves sit 2 points above Lyon in 4th (in a league where the top 3 gain guaranteed Champions League entry) and 8 behind their visitors, so a win is pretty imperative if they’re to maintain any hopes of still winning a first crown in over a decade.
As for Lens, with the Parisians breathing down their necks, they know that this is the kind of game that true title challengers rock up and win. Throw all that into the mix, and I think we see at least three goals here.
On the contrary, to the game above, this matchup sees two sides who are normally well in the race for European football at this stage in the season just meandering in midtable, and even that isn’t a safe place to be in Spain at present.
Just 5 points separate Elche in 8th (24 points) and Alaves in 18th (19), with our sides sandwiched in the middle at 14th and 10th. Relegation for either of these clubs would likely be absolutely catastrophic, particularly Bilbao, given that they are currently playing Champions League football and won the cup two seasons ago.
Therefore, I struggle to see how this won’t play out as a very cagey affair with both sides desperate to avoid defeat and sliding further into danger. Bilbao, in particular, have been kings of the tight game this season, and whilst Sevilla have seen their games fairly open at times, I think, given their precarious situation, they may look to go a bit more pragmatic until a more solid safety net has opened up.
Quite simply, Galatasaray need a reaction soon, or the title is going to be out of their hands with the way rivals Fenerbahce are playing. A disappointing draw last time out at home to Gaziantep means they now only sit a point above their arch nemesis, with all the momentum seeming to be with the chasers.
They should be boosted by the returns of Ismail Jakobs and, crucially, Victor Osimhen after the recent AFCON, as well as a number of key players back to full fitness after looking a bit threadbare before Christmas.
Their promoted opponents have really struggled to find any momentum this season, rooted to the bottom of the table and stranded seven points from safety. When Gala click, they tend to fire and score plenty, so backing them to win by 2 or more here seems like a lively runner.
Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.
As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.
Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.
Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.
As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.
Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.
Felix's p/l
7 Days
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