
Fri, 19 Dec 2025
Odds Now’s resident football data expert Felix Morson-Pate is back with his latest World Of Wagers column, where he heads on a quest for value across some of football’s more obscure leagues.
Germany, Spain and Turkey are on the menu this week!
These selections are all based on deriving value from my own ratings, which are based on a combination of underlying performance data and market opening and closing lines to determine the true strengths of teams, both in general and in their home/away splits.
Let’s get into this week’s three picks!
Two of Germany’s form sides clash this weekend – and in a league where the goals always tend to flow, I believe between them that this pairing has plenty of firepower to provide us with an entertaining match-up.
Deniz Undav, Jamie Leweling, Fisnik Asllani and Tim Lemperle have all been excellent with their attacking output thus far in the Bundesliga, paired with the fact that the winter break is just around the corner, which both sides will want to go into on a high.
It all feels set up for a high-scoring encounter between the current 5th and 6th-placed teams
It’s not been the easiest return to the Spanish top flight for Oviedo this season, as they sit just a point and a place above bottom spot with just two wins all campaign and none in their last five at home.
This weekend sees them host a very solid outfit in Celta Vigo, who are just steadily ticking along in both the league and in Europe, and with a front three who are sharing out the goals.
I just feel that on their recent showings, they should have too much for the promoted side on Saturday and at a slight odds against price to straight up win by any margin, I’m happy to take a chance on that.
As ever when looking for a Both Teams To Score selection, I’m trying to find sides that are probably more evenly matched than the market suggests, which sees me land in the Super Lig here with a Besiktas side that blow very hot and cold.
When they’re good, they can be scintillating going forward, if a little porous at the back, as evidenced in their recent 3-3 thriller against Trabzonspor. That leakiness plays into our hands here against a Rizespor outfit who themselves are much better on the ball than off it.
Led by excellent new signing Jesurun Rak-Sakyi, they’ve been involved in a few high-scoring affairs themselves, and I see this one being wide open – something like a 4-2 Besiktas victory feels very plausible.
You could have a go on the goals line too, but I’ll keep it simple by backing both sides to net in this one.
Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.
As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.
Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.
Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.
As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.
Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.
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