O'Regan's Longshots: 11 outlandish football betting tips for Saturday
Fri, 03 Oct 2025
Fri, 03 Oct 2025
Esteemed football tipster Matthew O'Regan returns with the latest edition of his longshots column, where he attempts to unearth some big-priced winners from across the upcoming Saturday football slate.
I am in a good mood this week so I thought I would return to the good old longshot column.
I saw my side Brighton beat our B team at Stamford Bridge. Both my arm casts have come off after seven long, smelly, itchy weeks. I’ve got a big weekend ahead and I am going on holiday next week – simply put, I am loving life.
In this column I’ll be putting forward a host of longshots for you to get stuck in to. So let's get to it!
Opponent cards against Jack Grealish has been a goldmine this season.
The maverick winger has drawn a card from Mats Wieffer, Matty Cash and Kyle Walker-Peters so far, with Connor Bradley some how avoiding a booking in the Merseyside derby. Grealish is averaging 4.35 fouls won per 90, so Sunday’s opposite number may be worth a look in the yellow card market.
Daniel Munoz is averaging 1.41 fouls per 90 over the last 30 games and has been booked twice in six league starts. Last campaign, he picked up ten yellow cards in the Premier League – so it is the perfect opportunity to back Grealish’s opposite number once again.
Seven defeats and a draw from their last eight league outings makes for grim reading for Newport County supporters – though somehow the Exiles remain just outside the relegation zone.
David Hughes’ side have been strong going forward, failing to score only twice all season, but their defensive frailties are clear as they are still searching for a first clean sheet of the campaign.
This weekend brings little respite, as league top scorers Swindon visit Rodney Parade. The Robins have won seven of their ten league matches, finding the net in all but one, while BTTS has landed in four of their five away fixtures.
On paper, this looks a mismatch — and Swindon should fancy their chances of running out comfortable winners in what promises to be another high-scoring contest.
On paper, this bet looks ridiculous but hear me out.
Oldham have only seen BTTS in one of their five away games and they’re sat 13th, behind Saturday’s opponents on goal difference. But they’ve now won three of their last four, and momentum counts for a lot at this level.
After their 1-1 draw with Barnet, Micky Mellon came out and said his side are “going to give someone a real hiding soon.” And you know what, Micky? I believe you. The 3-0 win at Cheltenham was exactly that kind of hiding, with just 0.30 xG conceded versus 3.76 xG created – a proper thumping.
Even the follow-up 1-1 with Barnet suggested it’s coming, with Oldham racking up 2.30 xG. The pasting is brewing. I’m with you Micky.
Notts County, meanwhile, have been bang average. Four wins, two draws and four defeats is as mid-table as it gets. Nothing in their data screams “about to get battered” - BTTS has landed in 7/10, but they also rank fifth-lowest for xGa, so I can’t even spin the stats.
Still, I’ve got that tingling in my lower regions, and County are one of those sides that can just implode out of nowhere.
One pint of 1-4 Oldham please, bar keep.
Bristol Rovers may just have found their man up front. Fabrizio Cavegn arrived from Liechtenstein side FC Vaduz in the summer after bagging 26 goals last season - including two in Europe.
I know what you’re thinking: scoring in Liechtenstein doesn’t sound that impressive. Well, that’s where you’re wrong, Bozo - Vaduz actually play in the Swiss second division, a level roughly equivalent to a bottom-half League Two side (according to the OPTA Power Rankings).
The 23-year-old needed a little time to adjust to the bright lights of fourth-tier English football, banging in a brace off the bench against Tottenham’s academy in the Pizza Cup which seemed to spark his confidence.
He did fluff his lines against Newport, failing to convert 1.11 xG — though his replacement, Ellis Harrison, grabbed a brace to make a “super sub” bet land.
Since then, Cavegn has found his rhythm, scoring in each of the last three games. At the prices being quoted, he looks a cracking bet to keep that streak going.
Another chunky goalscorer to get stuck into and it comes from the National League.
A whopping 13 goal contributions last term was enough for Adam Lakeland to convince Josh Hmani to join him at Halifax and the 25-year-old hasn’t looked back.
A box-to-box midfielder, Hmani has been crucial to the Shayman’s strong start to the season, scoring the equaliser at Morecambe, the fourth against Aldershot and a brace in the impressive win at table-toppers Rochdale in midweek.
Against newly promoted Brackley – without an away win thus far – Hmani will fancy his chances of scoring in four consecutive games and the prices are generous on him doing just that.
Morecambe will be relieved they are still a club after a tumultuous summer, although this campaign hasn’t been pretty viewing.
The Panjab Warriors made the bold decision to sack Derek Adams in the summer, bringing in the untested Ashvir Singh Johal.
I want Johal to succeed, I really do. He seems a great guy with a great understanding of football but blimey he is out of his depth on current evidence. The Shrimps sit bottom of the table, conceding 32 goals in just ten games – scoring 14 themselves. Their games are averaging 4.6 goals, so more chaos could ensue on Saturday.
Morecambe have seen over 3.5 goals in 6/10 games, losing four of these- including 5-0 and 2-5 losses to Truro and Gateshead in the last two. They are trying to play a style of football that is not sustainable for a side that simply just needs to survive and rebuild.
Over 3.5 goals has only landed on two occasions for Tamworth – the 4-0 loss at York and 2-3 win at Sutton, but the Lambs will be licking their lips at the prospect of slaughtering the Shrimps.
Andy Peak’s side are physical demons and will be a mismatch for the brittle backline of Morecambe. They have taken 11 points from six at home and look good for another three on Saturday.
Truro are another side struggling – but for different reasons to Morecambe. The Timerman are the first Cornish side to play in the National League and as a result, are playing un-regionalised football for the first time in their history.
Truro is the Southernmost city in the country, and is so far West it takes hours to even get close to it.
This, coupled with their small stature in the game has made it an uphill battle from the start – especially on the road. Away from home, they have lost all six games, scoring just once and conceding 14 goals.
This bet has won in 4/6 on the road – the exceptions 2-1 and 1-0 defeats, so we have to play the odds – despite Woking’s inconsistent start to the season.
I have no idea why I always play this sort of bet – it never wins. Maybe it’s my un-needed chase of a dopamine hit, only to be left wounded when it’s 0-0 at half time.
Still, this game presents as good as an opportunity as ever to play this bet. To put it bluntly, both teams have seen BTTS in 8/9 games – with Buxton and Darlington scoring in every game. If any game had to have goals in, it would be this.
It’s going to end 0-0 isn’t it?
If you’re still here at the end of the article – congrats, not long to go. My final bet involves National League North giants AFC Fylde who face a trip to AFC Telford in a clash many are dubbing the el-AFCico. Just me?
The Bucks have been poor this season, just two points above the drop zone in 19th. However, they have only blanked on two occasions, with BTTS landing in 6/9 outings.
When I described Fylde as giants, I didn’t mean club size or stature in the game. I meant it purely from a footballing perspective.
The Coasters dominate the second tier whenever they set foot in it – never finishing below third.
Craig Mahon’s side have started strongly, sat fourth with a game in hand on those above them. Fylde have scored in every game, averaging 2.5 per game, scoring 12 in four away games. BTTS has landed in 6/8 for them.
1.5pts - Crystal Palace vs Everton – Daniel Munoz Card – 10/3 (Sky Bet)
1.5pt - Newport County vs Swindon – Swindon Win and Both Teams To Score – 9/4 (Bet365)
1pt - Notts County vs Oldham – Oldham win and both teams to score – 11/2 (Bet365)
1pt - Walsall vs Bristol Rovers- Fabrizio Cavegn Anytime Goalscorer - 10/3 (Paddy Power)
0.5pt - Walsall vs Bristol Rovers- Fabrizio Cavegn brace - 25/1 (Paddy Power)
1pt - Halifax vs Brackley – Josh Hmani anytime scorer - 15/4 (Bet365)
0.5pt - Halifax vs Brackley – Josh Hmani brace - 25/1 (Bet365)
1pt - Tamworth vs Morecambe – Tamworth win and over 3.5 goals – 5/2 (Bet365)
1pt - Woking vs Truro – Woking over 1 goal and Truro under 0.5 goals – 11/2 (Bet365)
0.5pt - Buxton vs Darlington – Both Teams To Score in Both Halves – 12/1 (Bet365)
1pt - AFC Telford vs AFC Fylde – AFC Fylde and Both Teams To Score (Bet365)
Total staked - 10.5pts
Despite only being in his early 20s, Matthew O'Regan has wasted little time making a name for himself as a sound footballing judge.
With a strong social media following, gained as a result of his uncanny ability to repeatedly land big-priced winners, Matthew now shares his insights on the beautiful game – and how to profit on it – as his profession.
He credits most of his betting skill to working in a bookmaker shop as a youngster, seeing the silly mistakes most punters make which inspired him to try and attack things from a different angle.
When he's not scouring markets and writing columns, Matthew follows Brighton and his local non-league club Worthing.
Despite only being in his early 20s, Matthew O'Regan has wasted little time making a name for himself as a sound footballing judge.
With a strong social media following, gained as a result of his uncanny ability to repeatedly land big-priced winners, Matthew now shares his insights on the beautiful game – and how to profit on it – as his profession.
He credits most of his betting skill to working in a bookmaker shop as a youngster, seeing the silly mistakes most punters make which inspired him to try and attack things from a different angle.
When he's not scouring markets and writing columns, Matthew follows Brighton and his local non-league club Worthing.
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