Monza vs Atalanta: Betting Odds & Prediction

Mid-table Monza host an inconsistent Atalanta in Serie A on Sunday afternoon.

Kick-off is set for 7:45pm UK time on Sunday evening.

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Monza

Monza have continued their good form from last season, currently sitting eleventh in Serie A heading into the match despite finding themselves in Italy's fourth division just five years ago. They are winless in their last three though; consecutive losses to Torino and Napoli were followed by a 0-0 draw against Bologna last time out.

Monza's home form has been solid this season, with Raffaele Palladino averaging 1.44 points across their 16 home outings so far. Their goalscoring record isn't great on home turf, though; four of the sides placed below them have scored more. Monza have however outperformed their expected goals (xG) tally of 1.14 with an average of 1.25 goals per game so far.

Palladino's men have also put in a respectable performance in defensive quarters, with an average of 1.31 goals conceded. They've also managed clean sheets in 44% of their home fixtures, but have been prone to a collapse against sides higher in the division; both Roma and Napoli have scored four at the Stadio Brianteo, while league leaders Inter bagged five.

Atalanta

Having gone unbeaten in their first seven games of 2024, Atalanta’s form has somewhat stalled with only one Serie A win coming since. After an impressive 3-0 win away to Napoli, they lost to Cagliari 2-1 before drawing 2-2 with Hellas Verona. The run of form has left them in sixth position, four points behind Roma in fifth.

A saving grace in that period has been their performances in the Europa League, where they have secured passage to the semi-finals after securing a 3-1 aggregate win over Liverpool in mid-week.

However, if they are to make a push for the top four, they will need to see their away performances in the league match those in Europe. With only a 31% win rate rate on the road, Atalanta only have the ninth-best away record in Serie A.

Whilst an average 1.5 away goals scored is not astronomically high, they are still outperforming an xG of 1.31. Their record of 24 goals scored in 19 games is one of the best in the league, and with an average three goals per game, teams hosting Atalanta should be expecting goals.

Defensively, things will need to improve for La Dea. The clean sheet against Napoli was their first away from home since October, and eight teams lower than them in the league have conceded fewer goals than their 24. An expected goals against (xGA) of 1.41 has been met with an average 1.5 goals conceded a game so far.

With both Bologna and Roma ahead of them, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side will need to shore up at the back if they are to return to the Champions League next season.

Prediction

Despite both team’s poor form of late, Atalanta remain one of the better sides in the league and a constant threat in front of goal. Despite suffering a 1-0 home defeat to Liverpool in mid-week, they still prevailed to the semi-finals of the Europa League and OddsNow back them to maintain pressure on the teams in the European qualification places.