O'Regan's Longshots: Nine outside football fancies for Saturday
Fri, 21 Nov 2025
Fri, 21 Nov 2025
Odds Now’s resident football tipster Matthew O’Regan is back with the latest edition of his longshots column, aiming to arm you with some big-priced wagers for Saturday’s action across the English leagues.
Three things are inevitable in life: Death, taxes and me tipping up Isaac Price anytime goalscorer. I'm not sure where my affinity to him stems from. I'm not Northern Irish and I have no opinion on West Brom. But I do dream of a team of Isaac Price's.
The 22-year-old is now a mainstay at club and international level, netting five goals in 15 starts for the Baggies this term (0.36 goals per 90 mins). He is also a high-volume shooter, averaging 2.71 shots and 1.71 shots on target per 90 minutes.
Coventry's strong start to the season cannot be underestimated but they have shown a vulnerability at the back at home, with both Watford and Blackburn piling the goal attempts in recently.
All told, I cannot ignore this price on Price (wahey).
Another price that looks too chunky to me on Saturday is Joe Gelhardt's anytime scorer price away at QPR.
He's another player I've taken a liking to. He's a short, stocky and aggressive striker – kind of in the Wayne Rooney mould (not quite that level, admittedly).
While Gelhardt doesn't have the same techincal ability as the ex-England skipper, or even the dodgy hairline (like I can talk), there is a lot to like about the 23-year-old.
He's settled at Hull now and that's showing in his numbers, having bagged five goals in his last six games at a seasonal rate of 0.57 goals per 90 minutes.
Facing an R's side who have leaked 23 goals already this term, I am feeling jolly for the man they call Joffy.
For all the nice words I have shared about the first two selections, I cannot do the same with Barry Bannan.
A horrible, niggly footballer, the Scot has rightly been lauded for his supreme ability and loyalty to Sheffield Wednesday but boy, is he is an insufferable man for your team to play against!
That style of course makes him a prime candidate for card and foul bets – particularly in a game of this magnitude. When compiling my shortlist for card bets this week, the Steel City derby was obviously the first port of call but unsurprisingly, the prices are honking.
However, Bannan does make appeal in the fouls market. Now, you are taking a slight leap, as his fouls per 90 minutes this term is only a miserly 0.61 per 90 minutes.
I'm traditionally not a lover of using head to head statistics in betting angles. What relevance does a game from a decade ago have today? Well, this is one occasion where I do think it's particularly relevant.
He played both derby games last term. He was booked in the first one, making three fouls, and then made two fouls in the next meeting. He also injured the Blades' Ollie Arblaster, who is set to return to the bench on Saturday for some extra narrative.
Bannan hates the Blades. The Blades hate Bannan. Surely that means fouls, right?
A staple of a podcast I do with Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill is Mr Fraser Horsfal, who has disappointed in the goalscoring department in recent times.
However, with the towering centre back now starting his last four games for Blackpool, mirroring up with Ian Evatt's arrival in the dugout, now seems a good time to jump back on the bandwagon.
The 29-year-old is a demon from set pieces, having averaged a shot per game last term, and accumulating 0.11xG per 90 minutes.
Those numbers have declined in a Tangerine shirt somewhat, but he faces a Leyton Orient side here who have already conceded nine goals from set-pieces this season – the second-most in the entire EFL.
Going by similar logic, Fleetwood have conceded ten goals from set pieces this term. This season, defenders Ryan Tafazoli (Swindon), Warren Burrell (Harrogate) and Reagan Ogle (Oldham) have all scored from set pieces against the Cod Army.
Step forward William Boyle. The 30-year-old was signed in the summer from Wrexham and has already scored two in 15 starts for Shrewsbury, while averaging 1.49 shots per 90 minutes.
Boyle also scored twice in just three appearances for the Red Dragons, following on from three goals in 24 in League Two.
While at Cheltenham, Boyle scored 21 goals in 141 league starts – so has previous in the goalscoring department. As mentioned, Fleetwood are fragile from set pieces so the big, burly centre half will be looking to capitalise.
Lewis Simper scored nine goals in his debut campaign for Sutton – his best goal return in a short career. This season, he looks determined to beat that, scoring eight goals already, seven of which have come in the league.
The 24-year-old has scored in four of his eight league starts under new manager Chris Agutter, as well as in the FA Cup against Farnham. With The U’s attacking-orientated style, Simper looks crucial to their new approach and has been moved further forward to showcase his attacking prowess.
As if this price wasn’t juicy enough, he is also on penalties, playing against a side with just two clean sheets this season. He also scored a brace against Tamworth, so you bet your bottom dollar I’m backing the brace too.
Worthing travel to Slough looking to make amends for last seasons 4-0 drubbing – a match I was unfortunately in attendance. The Rebels (Slough) were much better than the Rebels (Worthing) on that occasion and put a spanner in the works for the visitors' promotion hunt at the time.
Fast forward many months and Worthing are in a strong position thanks to the return of Adam Hinshelwood in the dugout. While his first game back saw them lose 1-4 to Naitonal League side Forest Green in the FA Cup, they have gone from strength to strength since.
The three away games under his tenure have seen them defeat Chelmsford (1-2), Chesham (1-2) and Tonbridge (0-4), while also beating Dover (3-1), Hampton & Richmond (3-0), Hemel Hempstead (4-0) and AFC Totton (4-0).
In my unbiased opinion, they are the best team in the league and are showing that in recent weeks.
While Slough arrested their league slump with a 2-0 win over Farnborough in midweek, there are genuine fears of relegation at Arbour Park.
The Rebels sit in the relegation zone, conceding 33 in 16 games – the most in the division. However, they have also scored 21 - the second most in the bottom half.
In recent weeks they have been beaten 2-3 (Bath), 1-4 (Horsham), 5-1 (Weston Super Mare), while also losing 2-5 (Hornchurch) and 4-2 (Torquay) this term.
Scott Davies' side are there to be got at and if the visitors can grab an early goal, the floodgates may well open in Berkshire.
1pt – Coventry vs West Brom - Isaac Price to score anytime - 5/1 (Bet365)
1pt - QPR vs Hull - Joe Gelhardt to score anytime - 4/1 (SkyBet)
1pt - Sheffield Wednesday vs Sheffield United - Barry Bannan 2+ fouls - 5/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts - Leyton Orient vs Blackpool - Fraser Horsfall to score anytime - 14/1 (Paddy Power)
1pt - Fleetwood vs Shrewsbury - William Boyle to score anytime - 14/1 (Paddy Power)
1pt - Truro vs Sutton - Lewis Simper to score anytime - 11/2 (Bet365)
0.5pt - Truro vs Sutton - Lews Simper to score a brace - 50/1 (Bet365)
1pt - Slough vs Worthing - Worthing win and over 2 match goals - 2/1 (Bet365)
1pt - Slough vs Worthing - Worthing to score over 3 goals - 4/1 (Bet365)
Total staked - 8pts
Despite only being in his early 20s, Matthew O'Regan has wasted little time making a name for himself as a sound footballing judge.
With a strong social media following, gained as a result of his uncanny ability to repeatedly land big-priced winners, Matthew now shares his insights on the beautiful game – and how to profit on it – as his profession.
He credits most of his betting skill to working in a bookmaker shop as a youngster, seeing the silly mistakes most punters make which inspired him to try and attack things from a different angle.
When he's not scouring markets and writing columns, Matthew follows Brighton and his local non-league club Worthing.
Despite only being in his early 20s, Matthew O'Regan has wasted little time making a name for himself as a sound footballing judge.
With a strong social media following, gained as a result of his uncanny ability to repeatedly land big-priced winners, Matthew now shares his insights on the beautiful game – and how to profit on it – as his profession.
He credits most of his betting skill to working in a bookmaker shop as a youngster, seeing the silly mistakes most punters make which inspired him to try and attack things from a different angle.
When he's not scouring markets and writing columns, Matthew follows Brighton and his local non-league club Worthing.
Matthew's p/l
7 Days
30 Days
Year 2025
Joe Gelhardt scored a lovely dink to put Hull City ahead against Portsmouth 🍟
