O'Regan's Longshots: 11 ambitious punts for Saturday
Fri, 17 Oct 2025
Fri, 17 Oct 2025
Expert football tipster Matthew O’Regan returns to Odds Now duty with his latest exclusive longshots column. What over-priced bets is he backing to return some winnings this week?
At long last, the international break is over.
What better way to celebrate than a longshot column? I’ve scoured the Saturday slate, with bets coming from the South Coast in the Premier League all the way to Chester in the National League North.
How kooky!
One of the first rules you learn at gambling school is never bet on your own team – sorry, Miss Price, I am breaking that rule (sort of).
I quite enjoyed the international break; it gave me a week abroad, ticking off my 30th European country. I landed back to some awful news – Brighton are playing on Saturday. In what has been a hit-and-miss season so far, one shining light is Yasin Ayari.
Now, I will hold my hands up and admit I was one of the biggest critics of the young Swede last season, but my word, has he come on leaps and bounds this season. The 22-year-old always had the talent, but his physicality and willingness to shoot/play a progressive final ball always left a lot to be desired.
This season, he has realised you are allowed to shoot and to great effect – scoring against Barnsley and from distance against Tottenham Hotspur. Ayari has had 11 shots this season in 543 minutes – 10 of these from outside the box and four of these on target from outside the box.
He excels in picking up little pockets of space in between defence and midfield, and he will look to utilise this against a Newcastle side whose pragmatism has proven hard to break down on the road- drawing all three league away games 0-0. In the 0-4 win at Brighton’s sister club USG, 5 of the host's 6 shots on target came from outside the box.
Onto the yellow card market now, and two out-of-position full-backs stand out. Mats Wieffer was signed as an ‘8’ for Brighton but has since been deployed at right back. The Dutchman has started three games this season and has shown three cards, averaging 1.89 fouls per 90. Last season, he averaged 2.05 fouls per 90 and was shown 0.54 cards per 90.
Dan Burn will fill in again at left back. The big man from Blyth has been shown two yellows and made 12 fouls in 630 Premier League minutes this campaign. Four left-backs have been booked against The Seagulls this campaign.
Is it harsh to call this game a six-pointer? Leeds are four points clear of the relegation zone, and Burnley are just one point from safety, but both are predicted to be up against it this campaign.
These two were inseparable in the promotion campaign, and I have a feeling it will be similar this year. In a game of this magnitude, it is only natural to look at the yellow card market.
In his career, Jaidon Anthony is far from a prolific card getter. Last season, he only picked up three cards – one of these coming against Leeds, with whom he had a loan spell. This season, he has already been booked twice, making his 7.50 price big.
Because I am greedy, this isn’t enough. I will double him with Noah Okafor, who has been booked twice in four starts.
This one surely needs no explaining. Tyler Adams averaged 2.06 fouls and 0.32 cards per 90 last season. He has been shown three yellows in seven games this campaign. Four centre midfielders have been booked against Crystal Palace this season.
Will Hughes* has been booked in 4/6 domestic starts after 2.76 fouls per 90 and 11 cards in 24 starts last season. Four centre midfielders have been booked against Bournemouth this season, with Alex Scott winning 2.53 fouls per 90.
*If Hughes doesn’t start, then replace him with Daichi Kamada.
Granit Xhaka’s return to the Premier League was sure to have delighted card bettors alike, and the Swiss international has lived up to the billing, being shown three yellows in seven starts.
Noah Sadiki has also been a goldmine for card bettors and is already a fan favourite at the Stadium of Light. The Congolese Kante covers so much ground and isn’t afraid to get stuck in – picking up a yellow in his last three starts.
Not only are Xhaka and Sadiki brilliant prices given their records, when you consider ten centre midfielders have been booked against Wolves this season, these prices have me licking my lips.
This is a bet I’ve taken pretty much every week, and I am now introducing it to the ten of you who read my articles.
Nestory Irankunda was seen as somewhat of a coup when he was signed from Bayern Munich. The Australian winger has already dazzled Hornets fans and looks set to retain his place after a strong performance against Oxford United.
With Bet365's Sub On Play On’ feature, Irankunda has registered 4,4,3,4,2,5,4,7 shots for an average of 4.125 shots per game.
Camiel Neghli was surprisingly rested in Millwall’s win over West Brom but is likely to be reinstated to the starting line-up on Saturday. The Dutchman (with Sub On Play On’) has had 4,2,2,3,5,3,4 shots in the league.
Both are fantastic for shots on their own, but with the addition of this feature, we are blessed when the likes of Kwado Baah and Femi Azeez replace our players. Announce full backs coming on!
Enough with the player props and into the nooks and crannies of Non-League football. I mentioned in my Non-League Betting Tips article for this weekend that Chester are nearing a year unbeaten at home, with their only home losses since the start of the 2024/2025 campaign coming in August and October 2024. They are yet to lose at home this campaign and have seen BTTS in 5/5 at the DEVA.
Kidderminster aren’t performing well - without a win in five - and come into this after a 1-5 drubbing at home to Radcliffe, in which it all kicked off between the staff and fans. The appointment of a new assistant manager suggests the Harriers hierarchy are giving Adam Murray more time – but how much time can you give a man after he loses 4-1 to the shocking Seals?
Opposing Dagenham & Redbridge this season has served me well, and I am going in at a JUICY price. Ridiculously short bookie favourites in pre-season, the Daggers now look to be engulfed in a relegation battle.
The recruitment for me was always bewildering, a number of high-earning, injury-prone players being brought in – I am not naming names *cough Andy Carroll cough*.
The result? One league win so far and a loss to Step 3 Spalding United in the FA Cup. Even their one win against Hemel Hempstead came to a dubious referee decision.
Things have picked up a bit in recent weeks, holding Dorking and Torquay both to 0-0 draws on the road. Lee Bradbury has realised he is under severe pressure, so sat deep in these two away games, averaging just 36.5% possession.
This won’t wash at home to Enfield. Fans will want attacking, proactive football – something that the Daggers and Bradbury struggle with. I saw it first hand against Worthing – the hosts tried to push high and play direct – with The Rebels playing through them with ease. All it took was clipped balls over the top with the Dagenham defence struggling with pace in behind.
Enfield are the visitors to Essex/London on Saturday. On the road, they are averaging just 34.6% possession, so they will look to camp 10 men behind the ball and spring direct counterattacks – a perfect game plan against Dagenham.
If the hosts don’t score early, the atmosphere at Victoria Road will turn toxic – playing directly in Gavin MacPherson’s side’s hands. Add in the fact that BTTS has landed 4/5 at home for Dagenham and 4/5 for Enfield away - it is well worth a punt on the visitors win and BTTS - surely marking the end of Bradbury’s disastrous tenure.
1pt - Brighton vs Newcastle – Yasin Ayari Shot On Target Outside Box – 6/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt - Brighton vs Newcastle – Mats Wieffer and Dan Burn Card – 14/1 (William Hill)
0.5pt - Burnley vs Leeds – Jaidon Anthony Card – 13/2 (Bet365)
0.5pt - Burnley vs Leeds – Anthony and Okafor Card – 35/1 (Bet365)
0.5pt - Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth – Tyler Adams and Will Hughes card – 13/1 (William Hill)
1pt - Sunderland vs Wolves - Granit Xhaka card - 10/3 (Bet365)
1pt - Sunderland vs Wolves - Noah Sadiki card - 3/1 (Bet365)
0.5pt - Sheffield United vs Watford/ QPR vs Millwall – Nestory Irankunda and Camiel Neghli shots – 3+ each - 9/2 (Bet365)
0.5pt - Sheffield United vs Watford/ QPR vs Millwall – Nestory Irankunda and Camiel Neghli shots – 4+ each - 18/1 (Bet365)
1pt - Chester vs Kidderminster – Chester win and BTTS – 3/1 (Bet365)
0.5pt - Dagenham & Redbridge vs Enfield – Enfield Win and BTTS – 9/1 (Bet365)
Total staked - 7.5pts
Despite only being in his early 20s, Matthew O'Regan has wasted little time making a name for himself as a sound footballing judge.
With a strong social media following, gained as a result of his uncanny ability to repeatedly land big-priced winners, Matthew now shares his insights on the beautiful game – and how to profit on it – as his profession.
He credits most of his betting skill to working in a bookmaker shop as a youngster, seeing the silly mistakes most punters make which inspired him to try and attack things from a different angle.
When he's not scouring markets and writing columns, Matthew follows Brighton and his local non-league club Worthing.
Despite only being in his early 20s, Matthew O'Regan has wasted little time making a name for himself as a sound footballing judge.
With a strong social media following, gained as a result of his uncanny ability to repeatedly land big-priced winners, Matthew now shares his insights on the beautiful game – and how to profit on it – as his profession.
He credits most of his betting skill to working in a bookmaker shop as a youngster, seeing the silly mistakes most punters make which inspired him to try and attack things from a different angle.
When he's not scouring markets and writing columns, Matthew follows Brighton and his local non-league club Worthing.
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Another unstoppable Yasin Ayari strike! 🤩🔥
