France vs Morocco betting tips: Underdogs can take France into deep waters
The first quarter-final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup takes place on Thursday evening as tournament favourites France face a dangerous Morocco side with another historic upset in their sights.
Odds Now football tipster Matt Hill takes a closer look at the contest and picks out his best betting angles ahead of kick-off.
Competition – 2026 FIFA World Cup – Quarter-Final
Date - Thursday July 9th, 2026
Kick off - 9pm Thursday UK time
TV channels – ITV1/ITVX (UK), FOX Sports (US)
Match Winner - France 1.62, Draw 4.00, Morocco 7.00
To Qualify - France 1.28, Morocco 4.40
Over 2.5 goals - Yes 1.90, No 2.08
Both Teams To Score - Yes 2.04, No 1.94
*Odds correct as of midday BST on Thursday July 9th 2026 and are subject to change.
France remain firmly on course for a third World Cup final appearance in a row after edging past Paraguay in the last 16.
Didier Deschamps' side were not at their fluent best in that 1-0 victory, but tournament football has rarely been about style points for this France team. Les Bleus have spent much of the last decade finding ways to win tight knockout games and, once again, they arrive at this stage as the side many still expect to beat.
There is no shortage of attacking firepower. Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise give France a front three capable of overwhelming almost any opponent, while Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola provide further pace, directness and invention from wide areas.
The slight concern is whether that attacking balance leaves France vulnerable against a side as hard-working and intense as Morocco. Deschamps' men have the individual quality to win this tournament outright, but this does feel like their first proper examination of the summer.
France are expected to be largely unchanged from the side that beat Paraguay, although Aurelien Tchouameni could return in central midfield if deemed fit enough. Manu Kone, Barcola and Olise were all booked in the previous round and would miss a potential semi-final if cautioned again here.
Doue could come into the side in place of Barcola, with the pair viewed as fairly interchangeable options in this French attack.
France Predicted XI vs Morocco (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Kone, Rabiot; Dembele, Olise, Doue; Mbappe.
Morocco are once again threatening to write one of the great World Cup stories.
Four years on from their remarkable run to the semi-finals in Qatar, the Atlas Lions are back in the latter stages and will fancy their chances of pushing France all the way.
Their route here has already underlined what makes them such a difficult opponent. Morocco needed penalties to squeeze past the Netherlands after a 1-1 draw in the last 32, before producing a far more convincing 3-0 win over Canada in the round of 16.
They were a little slow to get going in that Canada game, but once they found their rhythm, the intensity, athleticism and discipline that have become trademarks of this side quickly came to the fore.
The North Africans are not necessarily built around individual brilliance in the same way France are. Instead, they are a team of serious workhorses who know their jobs, trust their system and play at a tempo that can overwhelm opponents.
The major blow is the absence of top scorer Ismael Saibari, who has been ruled out with the hamstring injury he picked up against Canada. Soufiane Rahimi is expected to deputise in attack.
Chadi Riad missed the Canada win but should return to partner Issa Diop in central defence, while Morocco also have several players walking a disciplinary tightrope. Achraf Hakimi, Redouane Halhal, Bilal El Khannouss, Azzedine Ounahi and Diop are all one booking away from a potential semi-final suspension.
Morocco Predicted XI vs France (4-2-3-1): Bounou; Hakimi, Diop, Riad, Mazraoui; El Aynaoui, Bouaddi; Diaz, Ounahi, El Khannouss; Rahimi.
France are deserved favourites here, but I do think the market has moved a little too far in their direction.
That is not to say I am anti-France. Far from it. I highlighted them as my likeliest winners before the tournament began and the attacking talent in this squad is frightening. Mbappe, Dembele and Olise are good enough to win matches on their own, as we all know too well.
But this looks a big step up from anything Les Bleus have faced so far this summer.
Morocco are awkward, intense and incredibly difficult to shake off. Even when they fall behind, as they did against the Netherlands, they do not really move away from their approach. They keep pressing, keep running and keep asking questions, all while trusting that their substitutes will buy into the same plan when called upon.
We have seen this blueprint work across two World Cups now. The only side to stop Morocco in Qatar were indeed France, but that semi-final came after Morocco had been through a brutally draining run of extra-time encounters against elite sides and they looked out of gas by that stage.
I am not convinced that will be the case here. The Canada game, while difficult early, became relatively comfortable after Morocco got themselves in front and they should arrive for this quarter-final with plenty left in the tank.
The key dynamic for me from a betting perspective is game state.
Firstly, you can expect it to be low margin. There will be a healthy level of respect between these two sides and a goal-fest, to me, feels highly unlikely.
If this game is level with 15 or 20 minutes to play, as I expect, then I am not sure either side will be desperate to throw everything forward.
France will back themselves to find a way eventually, whether that comes in normal time, extra time or penalties. A simple case of sticking to the plan.
Morocco, meanwhile, would surely be delighted to take the best team in the tournament as deep as possible.
Some matches simply have a far increased chance of ending level than others and this feels like one of them to me.
There is so much attacking talent on show that it is easy to assume goals will arrive, but this is a World Cup quarter-final between two very good defensive units. The pressure will be intense, the margins will be tiny and neither side has any great need to show their hand early.
That is why I am backing the draw at 3/1, available across the board, and am also taking a small chance on no goalscorer at 12/1 with BetVictor.
For any newer bettors, no goalscorer is generally preferable to backing 0-0 when the prices are similar. If the match finishes 0-0, both bets win, but no goalscorer also gives you the extra protection of a 1-0 settled by an own goal.
The other angle I like is Dayot Upamecano to be booked at 11/2 with Paddy Power.
Upamecano is a brilliant defender, but he can look like a ticking time bomb at times. He is aggressive, loves stepping out from the defensive line and is always keen to press onto opponents quickly.
When it works, it is a real weapon for France. When it goes wrong, it can leave space behind him and force him into rash recovery tackles.
Against this Morocco side, that feels dangerous. They have the athleticism and speed within transition to expose any mistimed step out from the favourtes' backline, and Upamecano looks the most obvious route into the book at the prices.
I am expecting a tight, tense and fascinating quarter-final. France may well find a way through eventually, but over 90 minutes, Morocco look capable of making this extremely uncomfortable.
As a Morocco outright backer, this is the night I've been pinning my hopes on for. a few weeks now. Let's hope it goes to plan!
2.5pts - Draw - 3/1 (various)
1pt - Dayot Upamecano to be booked - 11/2 (Paddy Power)
0.5pt - No Goalscorer - 12/1 (BetVictor)
Total staked - 4pts
All prices subject to change. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org.
Matt Hill is Odds Now's Head of Content and leads our digital operation, while also offering his insight as a tipster across darts and football.
Having worked in the industry for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with Betfred and LiveScore, Matt joined the project in May 2024 with the sole aim of making Odds Now a key player in the betting content space.
He has also forged a reputation as a respected darts tipster, landing numerous three-figure outright winners over the years, while his love for lower league football also helps him pick out the odd obscure winner in that space.
When not at the editorial desk, Matt enjoys travelling the country supporting his beloved Carlisle United FC, chucking a few arrows and spending time with his young family.
Matt Hill is Odds Now's Head of Content and leads our digital operation, while also offering his insight as a tipster across darts and football.
Having worked in the industry for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with Betfred and LiveScore, Matt joined the project in May 2024 with the sole aim of making Odds Now a key player in the betting content space.
He has also forged a reputation as a respected darts tipster, landing numerous three-figure outright winners over the years, while his love for lower league football also helps him pick out the odd obscure winner in that space.
When not at the editorial desk, Matt enjoys travelling the country supporting his beloved Carlisle United FC, chucking a few arrows and spending time with his young family.
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