Spain vs Belgium betting tips: Red Devils can compete against well-fancied La Roja
The second quarter-final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup takes place on Friday evening as tournament favourites Spain face a Belgium side buoyed by their emphatic victory over hosts USA in the previous round.
Odds Now football tipster Matt Hill takes a closer look at the contest and picks out his best betting angles ahead of kick-off.
Competition – 2026 FIFA World Cup – Quarter-Final
Date – Friday July 10th, 2026
Kick off – 8pm BST
TV channels – BBC1/BBC iPlayer (UK)
Match Winner – Spain 1.69, Draw 4.10, Belgium 5.90
To Qualify – Spain 1.34, Belgium 3.85
Over 2.5 goals – Yes 1.86, No 2.14
Both Teams To Score – Yes 1.85, No 2.12
*Odds correct as of 10AM on Friday July 10th 2026 and are subject to change.
Spain head into this quarter-final as one of the standout teams of the tournament and remain firmly among the leading contenders to lift the trophy.
Luis de la Fuente’s side have yet to concede a goal at the World Cup and arrive here following a narrow but deserved 1-0 victory over Portugal in the last 16.
That result was another example of Spain’s ability to control matches without necessarily needing to overwhelm their opponents on the scoreboard.
Their possession game remains as polished as ever, with Rodri and Pedri providing the platform in midfield and Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo and Mikel Oyarzabal supplying quality in the final third.
Spain’s ability to suffocate opponents through ball retention has caused problems for every team they have faced so far. Austria attempted to press aggressively in the round of 32 but were repeatedly played through, while Portugal adopted a more cautious approach and were eventually edged out.
The main fitness concern surrounds Nico Williams, who has missed Spain’s first two knockout matches with an abductor injury. The Athletic Bilbao winger has been pictured back in training, although he appears more likely to be introduced from the bench than handed a starting role.
Alex Baena has filled in on the left flank during Williams’ absence, but Ferran Torres is another option after impressing as a substitute against Portugal.
Torres is also Spain’s only player carrying a booking into this contest, meaning another yellow card would rule him out of a potential semi-final.
Spain Predicted XI vs Belgium (4-2-3-1): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.
Belgium produced their best performance of the tournament at exactly the right time, sweeping aside hosts USA 4-1 in the last 16.
It was a striking response from a team that had struggled to convince during the group stage and required late interventions to escape difficult situations against Egypt and Senegal.
Manager Rudi Garcia deserves significant credit for his selection against the United States.
Garcia made the bold decision to drop Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku, two of the biggest names in the squad, and was rewarded with a far more dynamic display.
Dodi Lukebakio was particularly impressive after being introduced into the starting XI and has surely done enough to retain his place here.
The question is whether De Bruyne will return for a match in which Belgium are likely to spend longer without the ball and may need his quality to make the most of their limited possession.
Amadou Onana will definitely miss out after rupturing his ACL during the victory over USA.
His absence creates an obvious vacancy in midfield and may provide Garcia with an uncomplicated route to reintegrate De Bruyne into the side.
Belgium have not always been easy on the eye during this tournament, but they have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to change matches.
They came from behind against Egypt, responded again when placed under pressure by Senegal and then produced four goals against the hosts.
That resilience, combined with the attacking options available to Garcia, makes them difficult to dismiss completely.
Brandon Mechele is the only Belgian player one yellow card away from missing a potential semi-final.
Belgium Predicted XI vs Spain (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Vanaken, Tielemans; Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Trossard; De Ketelaere.
Spain are deserved favourites here and I expect them to win, but I am prepared to give Belgium a little more respect than the market appears willing to offer.
That is not solely because of the 4-1 victory over USA, either.
There were clearly mitigating circumstances surrounding the hosts in that match and they looked badly affected by the situation around the camp. Belgium turned up and USA did not, so I would be wary of reading too much into the margin of victory alone.
At the same time, Belgium were arguably written off a little too quickly before that game.
When you compare the teams player for player, there remains plenty of quality in this Belgian squad. Their group stage performances were underwhelming, but they have consistently found a response whenever matches have begun to go against them.
They changed the game against Egypt, produced another comeback against Senegal and then scored four times against the United States.
The only match in which they failed to score was the 0-0 draw with Iran, and that contest was influenced by a late red card that forced Belgium to become more conservative.
Spain will present a completely different challenge and they will not offer the same kind of easy ride that USA did.
De la Fuente’s side will turn up, dominate possession and force Belgium to defend for long periods. Ultimately, I expect Spain’s superior quality and control to tell eventually.
However, I do think Belgium have enough attacking depth to become the first side to breach Spain's backline this summer.
Spain have not conceded at the tournament, but the context of those clean sheets is worth considering.
Cape Verde showed very little ambition in the opening game and were primarily interested in protecting a point. Saudi Arabia were completely outclassed and offered almost no attacking threat, while the final group match carried the usual questions around motivation and rotation.
Austria then played directly into Spain’s hands by attempting to press aggressively without being able to get close enough to disrupt their rhythm. Portugal were far more cautious and made the last-16 contest a tight, tactical affair. Belgium should offer something different.
Even if they fall behind, Garcia has shown a willingness to change the shape and personnel, and there are several useful attacking combinations available to him.
Lukebakio looked lively against USA, while De Ketelaere and Romelu Lukaku offer completely different profiles through the middle. Doku and Trossard also provide variety from wide areas.
Belgium have created plenty of chances and registered plenty of attempts throughout the tournament, even when the overall performances have been inconsistent.
I still expect Spain to outclass them, but the 3.50 available for Spain to win and both teams to score looks appealing.
The other angle I like revolves around Belgium's Nicolas Raskin.
The Rangers midfielder did not start Belgium’s opening matches but has gradually played his way into the team and impressed with his energy and aggression.
I watch plenty of Scottish football and Raskin is an all-action midfielder who enjoys getting involved in tackles, confrontations and little battles across the pitch.
He committed two fouls in a 60-minute appearance when first introduced into the side and has cleared the over 1.5 line in both matches since.
This is the strongest opposition he has faced at the tournament and Belgium are likely to spend extended periods chasing Spain’s midfielders and wide players. That should leave Raskin with a very busy evening.
The over 1.5 fouls line looks particularly solid at 2.10, while I am also happy to take smaller stakes on him committing three or more and four or more fouls.
There is always a danger with these ladder bets that an early booking makes a player more cautious, but Raskin’s temperament and aggressive style make him a suitable candidate.
2pts – Spain to win and both teams to score – 3.50 (Sky Bet)
1pt – Nicolas Raskin over 1.5 fouls – 2.10 (LiveScore Bet)
0.5pt – Nicolas Raskin over 2.5 fouls – 4.33 (BetMGM)
0.5pt – Nicolas Raskin over 3.5 fouls – 7.00 (Betfred)
Total staked – 4pts
All prices subject to change. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org.
Matt Hill is Odds Now's Head of Content and leads our digital operation, while also offering his insight as a tipster across darts and football.
Having worked in the industry for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with Betfred and LiveScore, Matt joined the project in May 2024 with the sole aim of making Odds Now a key player in the betting content space.
He has also forged a reputation as a respected darts tipster, landing numerous three-figure outright winners over the years, while his love for lower league football also helps him pick out the odd obscure winner in that space.
When not at the editorial desk, Matt enjoys travelling the country supporting his beloved Carlisle United FC, chucking a few arrows and spending time with his young family.
Matt Hill is Odds Now's Head of Content and leads our digital operation, while also offering his insight as a tipster across darts and football.
Having worked in the industry for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with Betfred and LiveScore, Matt joined the project in May 2024 with the sole aim of making Odds Now a key player in the betting content space.
He has also forged a reputation as a respected darts tipster, landing numerous three-figure outright winners over the years, while his love for lower league football also helps him pick out the odd obscure winner in that space.
When not at the editorial desk, Matt enjoys travelling the country supporting his beloved Carlisle United FC, chucking a few arrows and spending time with his young family.
Matt's p/l
7 Days
30 Days
Year 2026
