USA vs Paraguay betting tips: Cards could fly in fiery clash
It’s time for Mauricio Pochettino’s USA to take centre stage at their home World Cup on Friday night (well, Saturday morning for UK viewers) with Paraguay standing in their way on Matchday #1.
As always, Odds Now’s football tipster Matt Hill is on hand to get stuck into the action with an in-depth betting preview.
Competition – 2026 FIFA World Cup – Group Stage, Matchday #1
Date - Friday June 12th, 2026
Kick off - 7pm local time (PDT) / 2AM Saturday UK time
Venue – Los Angeles Stadium, Los Angeles
TV channels – BBC1/ BBC iPlayer (UK), FOX Sports (US)
Match Winner - USA 2.00, Draw 3.55, Paraguay 4.50
Over 2.5 goals - Yes 2.38, No 1.71
Both Teams To Score - Yes 2.1, No 1.87
All prices correct as of 2pm on Thursday June 10th, 2026.
Mauricio Pochettino was spared the stress of a qualification campaign given USA qualified as hosts, so virtually all of his two-year reign as USMNT boss has been geared towards this opening fixtures.
Injuries have been relatively kind to the US thus far, with Crystal Palace’s Chris Richards likely to be the only starter unavailable. Miles Robinson or Mark McKenzie will likely step in to a back three alongside veteran Tim Ream and Mark Robinson. Matt Freese should be behind them in between the sticks.
Wing-backs Antonee Robinson and Sergino Dest bring pace and dynamism on the flanks at wing-back, while a destructive midfield duo of Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams pick themselves.
It will then be a fluid front three, with Malik Tillman of Bayer Leverkusen and the evergreen Christian Pulisic operating behind line-leader Florian Balogun
Paraguay make their return to the World Cup stage after a 16-year absence here – a fate which looked unlikely in the extreme when they scored just one goal and took only one win from their first six CONMEBOL qualifiers.
Two coaches came and went in that time but it was definitely a case of third time lucky with hiring Argentinian Gustavo Alfaro, who has reconnected the national team with its people and brought a fantastic upturn in results, including wins over Brazil and Argentina.
Alvaro is getting the most out of a squad which has talent but lacks depth. So, injury worries for key men in box-to-box midfielder Damian Bobadilla and creative lynchpin Julio Enciso aren't ideal.
Given how important this first game is, however, Alvaro is likely to risk both from the start if they are even close to full fitness. The rest of his XI is pretty settled, with Brighton's Diego Gomez, ex-Newcastle man Miguel Almiron and Cremonese striker Antonio Sanabria also adding flair to a capable attack.
Paraguay predicted XI vs USA (4-2-3-1): Gill; Caceres, G Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Cubas, Bobadilla; D Gomez, Enciso, Almiron; Sanabria.
“After Mexico and Canada make their World Cup bows, attention turns to the last of the three hosts. It’s crunch time for Mauricio Pochettino and his USA side and the pressure is firmly on them to deliver now.
“A lot of good betting judges are making sound cases for getting the States on side at this World Cup outright – and I can certainly see the angle.
“It’s outlandish to suggest there’s real out-and-out corruption at play on football’s biggest stage but I certainly think we can expect marginal decisions to be going in their favour over the coming weeks – something that can make a big difference in close-run affairs.
“Paraguay may have finished only sixth in CONMEBOL qualifying but they showed they are no mugs with some particularly impressive performances after Gustavo Alfaro's arrival, namely in wins over Brazil and Argentina.
“As well as possessing some talented technicians, Alfaro’s side are quite physical, which goes in line with their previous World Cup appearances where yellow cards were a prominent feature.
“In 2002, they picked up eight yellows in three group games – a feat repeated in 2006. In 2010, they ran all the way to the quarter-finals, where a loss to Spain saw five yellows dished out.
“Of the six CONMEBOL sides to reach the finals, Paraguay had the joint-worst disciplinary record in qualifying alongside Brazil, so it’s fair to assume there’ll be some tackles flying in here from the underdogs who may need to soak up significant pressure from the hosts.
“Add in the fact this pair’s friendly meeting last November featured a mass brawl in injury time, and I really like the 7/4 about Paraguay getting over 2.5 yellow cards. Particularly when you consider it’s effectively an away game, with the crowd likely to be demanding plenty of change out of Dutch referee Danny Makellie.
“I'm also going to try half a point on a red card to be shown at 5/1. Let’s be honest – a helping hand for the USA wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone here.”
1pts - Over 2.5 Paraguay cards - 7/4 (Ladbrokes/ Coral)
0.5pts - Red card in USA vs Paraguay - 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
Total staked - 2.5pts
All prices correct as of 2pm on Thursday June 11th, 2026. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org.
Matt Hill is Odds Now's Head of Content and leads our digital operation, while also offering his insight as a tipster across darts and football.
Having worked in the industry for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with Betfred and LiveScore, Matt joined the project in May 2024 with the sole aim of making Odds Now a key player in the betting content space.
He has also forged a reputation as a respected darts tipster, landing numerous three-figure outright winners over the years, while his love for lower league football also helps him pick out the odd obscure winner in that space.
When not at the editorial desk, Matt enjoys travelling the country supporting his beloved Carlisle United FC, chucking a few arrows and spending time with his young family.
Matt Hill is Odds Now's Head of Content and leads our digital operation, while also offering his insight as a tipster across darts and football.
Having worked in the industry for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with Betfred and LiveScore, Matt joined the project in May 2024 with the sole aim of making Odds Now a key player in the betting content space.
He has also forged a reputation as a respected darts tipster, landing numerous three-figure outright winners over the years, while his love for lower league football also helps him pick out the odd obscure winner in that space.
When not at the editorial desk, Matt enjoys travelling the country supporting his beloved Carlisle United FC, chucking a few arrows and spending time with his young family.
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