O'Regan's Longshots: Mark your card with these booking bets
Fri, 12 Sep 2025
Fri, 12 Sep 2025
In his latest Odds Now weekly column, football tipster Matthew O’Regan returns to his roots with a cluster of yellow card-based bets from across the Premier League weekend.
Something a little different this week, as I will attempt to scope out some nice yellow card prices. It is an angle I have neglected in recent times, despite it being the reason my Twitter/X account gained traction while I was still a university student.
The yellow card market can be so beautiful but yet so painful at the same time- it just depends on the mood of the referee. It also sees massive variance – so I am hoping we get the rub of the green this week.
0.5pts - Martin Zubimendi To Be Booked – 5/1 (Bet365)
Starting with the early kick off and Arsenal’s new Spaniard, Martin Zubimendi.
He is a player whom Mikael Arteta has been chasing for ages, and the 26-year-old has been rewarded with 90 minutes in all three games so far. In these matches, he has made 2, 2 and 3 fouls, earning a booking against Liverpool.
Elliot Anderson (1.76 fouls won per 90) and Morgan Gibbs White (1.28) provide tough opposition, with Yehor Yarmolyuk making three fouls for Brentford and Will Hughes making two and being booked for Palace.
1.5pts - Tyler Adams To Be Booked – 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt - Joel Veltman To Be Booked – 3/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt - Antoine Semenyo To Be Booked – 10/3 (Sky Bet)
0.25pts - Treble - Adams, Veltman, and Semenyo To Be Booked – 69/1 (William Hill)
Joel Veltman is the master of sh*thousery. The Dutchman offers little going forward, so leans on cheap fouls – four of them against Manchester City alone. His theatrics wind up opponents, making Antoine Semenyo an ideal match-up this weekend.
The Ghanaian loves to run at defenders and has made at least two fouls in each of his last six games, including a booking against Spurs. Veltman himself was booked for a late tackle in his only league start this season, averaging 0.5 yellows per 90 across his last 11 appearances.
Meanwhile, Tyler Adams is my go-to booking bet. He averages two fouls and 0.36 yellows per 90 over his last 30. Midfield rivals often rack up fouls against Brighton: Sasa Lukic and Sander Berge combined for seven with Fulham, Tim Iroegbunam and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall were both booked for Everton, while Bernardo Silva made three for Manchester City.
With Yasin Ayari, Carlos Baleba and Georginio Rutter buzzing around, Adams is in for another tough afternoon here.
1pt - Will Hughes To Be Booked -10/3 - (Bet365)
1pt - Granit Xhaka To Be Booked -11/4 – (Bet365)
0.5pts - Double - Hughes and Xhaka To Be Booked – 16/1 (Bet365)
Like Adams, Will Hughes is a player I back every week. He has made 2.58 fouls per 90 over his last 30 Premier League games and been booked 0.50 p90 over this time – including in all three league games this season.
When I saw Palace were playing Sunderland, I let out a little squeal – you mean I get to back both Hughes AND Xhaka for a yellow and it's a double-digit price?
The swashbuckling Swiss escaped a yellow in his opening two outings back in England, but was back to his best, whetting the appetite with a card against Brentford.
Two dirty operators who occupy the same position with a referee who showed five yellows and a red in his opening Premier League game and a red in his last three – consider me aroused.
1.5pts - Sasa Lukic To Be Carded – 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Will Hughes, Tyler Adams, and Sasa Lukic all have backable odds in the same weekend – has Christmas come early?
The Serb made 2.52 fouls per 90 and was shown 0.46 yellows per 90 last season. He has made 5, 2, 5 fouls in the league this season, only avoiding a card in the opener against Brighton, somehow.
Lukic was also booked in both international games. To put it simply, he is a foul-making machine, and I cannot fathom why he is 3/1.
0.5pts - Matty Cash To Be Carded – 11/4 (Various)
0.5pts - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall To Be Carded - 11/2 (Sky Bet)
On the face of it, Matty Cash has an average record, averaging 1.22 fouls per 90 over the last season and making just two fouls and one yellow in three games this campaign.
However, his direct opponent makes this a bet – he is up against Jack Grealish. Mats Wieffer was booked for Brighton in Grealish’s first Everton start, while Santiago Bueno made three fouls for Wolves.
Another new signing for the Toffees is Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, signed from Chelsea in the summer. The 27-year-old has a certain swagger about his game, sauntering about the pitch with his socks low.
Despite this, KDH is not afraid to get stuck in, making five fouls over his last two games – picking up a yellow in both.
On top of this, a centre midfielder has been booked against Aston Villa in two of the three games this season, with Dewsbury-Hall at tasty odds to make it three.
0.5pts - Mo Kudus To Be Carded – 5/1 (SkyBet)
The first game of Saturday evening has the potential to get TASTY. Bitter rivals Tottenham and West Ham do battle, with Mo Kudus likely to receive a frosty welcome from the Hammers faithful after twerking for Spurs all summer.
The Ghanaian has made seven fouls in four games, escaping a booking in all four. Going off the statistics, a yellow card doesn’t stand out, BUT I am a sucker for some old team aggro, so 5/1 is worth a flutter.
0.5pts - Moises Caicedo To Be Booked – 5/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts - Igor Thiago To Be Booked – 3/1 (Sky Bet)
0.25pts - Double with Igor Thiago – 13/1 (Sky Bet)
With my Brighton hat on and through gritted teeth, I will admit that Moises Caicedo is a brilliant player – cynical but brilliant.
The Ecuadorian is tough tackling but often oversteps the mark. He started every game last campaign, averaging 0.29 yellows and 1.88 fouls per 90.
This season, he has already been booked against Fulham, so I am hoping he continues his hatred for other West London teams with another yellow against Brentford.
Igor Thiago has cemented himself as the Bees' main man upfront after a lengthy injury layoff. So far this season, he has made 3, 2, 2 and 4 fouls, being booked in his last two games.
In a game where Brentford won’t have much of the ball, expect the Brazilian to throw his weight around like a bull in a china shop.
Despite only being in his early 20s, Matthew O'Regan has wasted little time making a name for himself as a sound footballing judge.
With a strong social media following, gained as a result of his uncanny ability to repeatedly land big-priced winners, Matthew now shares his insights on the beautiful game – and how to profit on it – as his profession.
He credits most of his betting skill to working in a bookmaker shop as a youngster, seeing the silly mistakes most punters make which inspired him to try and attack things from a different angle.
When he's not scouring markets and writing columns, Matthew follows Brighton and his local non-league club Worthing.
Despite only being in his early 20s, Matthew O'Regan has wasted little time making a name for himself as a sound footballing judge.
With a strong social media following, gained as a result of his uncanny ability to repeatedly land big-priced winners, Matthew now shares his insights on the beautiful game – and how to profit on it – as his profession.
He credits most of his betting skill to working in a bookmaker shop as a youngster, seeing the silly mistakes most punters make which inspired him to try and attack things from a different angle.
When he's not scouring markets and writing columns, Matthew follows Brighton and his local non-league club Worthing.
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