World of Wagers: Three midweek fancies from the continental slate
Tue, 25 Nov 2025
Tue, 25 Nov 2025
Odds Now’s resident football data expert, Felix Morson-Pate, returns with the latest edition of his World of Wagers column.
Felix has dug into markets from around the world and offers up three wagers for this coming weekend.
It may seem a bit against the grain to go with an unders bet involving either of these sides, let alone with the pair facing each other – but I think the public perception of how the two sides play has pushed this goal line a touch too high.
Based on my ratings (which use underlying performance metrics and market closing lines to assess the strength of teams), I would make this game a little closer for starters, though still with the home side as comfortable favourites – and it just feels like the kind of game where they’ll just be happy with a win of any description to ease a bit of pressure on Arne Slot.
So with even the 2-1 covered here thanks to such a high line, I think we can afford to bank on a bit of caution being at play in this one.
What I love about the new format of the UEFA competitions is the myriad of different matchups you now get between teams, with every participant facing a unique set of eight opponents.
It makes for a very interesting challenge in trying to peg where each national league, and therefore each side, sits on the overall food chain of European club football, which can lead to some excellent opportunities in spotting potential misleading prices.
And so is the case here, where based on my numbers with home advantage factored in, I would only make the Greek side around a quarter of a goal favourite against their Austrian opponents here.
Sturm Graz have lost both their away ties so far (at Celtic and Midtjylland) but Panathinaikos were also turned over at home by Go Ahead Eagles, so with even half our stakes returned in the event of a single goal loss for Graz, this feels like a handicap of strong value.
The marquee matchup of this week’s Conference League round sees two of the outright favourites clash in a game that sees the FA Cup holders as an odds on shot – but it’s the goals angle that I’d like to attack here.
Palace put aside a disappointing defeat to Larnaca last time out with a commanding performance and win over AZ Alkmaar which they will look to build on, with Oliver Glasner seemingly happy to play many of his first choice starters in this competition in an attempt to lift yet more silverware in his historic tenure with the club so far.
Meanwhile, Strasbourg’s games in the competition so far have tended to throw up chances and goals at both ends of the pitch, something which is reflected in the fairly short price for BTTS.
Therefore, factoring that price in with Palace likely to be favourites even with a stern test, all the signs point towards a strong chance of 3+ goals in this clash, especially with both Mateta and Panichelli in such fine form
All prices correct as of 1pm on Tuesday November 25th with Bet365.
Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.
As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.
Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.
Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.
As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.
Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.
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