World of Wagers: Pondering Portugal and three weekend bets

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Felix Morson-Pate

Thu, 30 Oct 2025

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World of Wagers: Global football betting tips for Saturday November 1st 2025

In his latest World of Wagers column, Odds Now's football data expert Felix Morson-Pate takes a closer look at the domestic scene in Portugal and offers up his usual three weekend fancies from around the globe.


League in Focus: Portuguese Primeira Liga


There’s a trio of teams that dominate the headlines, the glory and the average football fan’s attention in Portugal.


Porto, Sporting and Benfica sit in that order at the top of the league table, the expected goals table and my own ratings table (which looks at market closing lines and other underlying performance data to assess team strength).


All but two titles in league history have been won by the holy trinity, but dig a little deeper into Portugal’s flight and we can find a couple of sides to get with and against in the coming weeks.


In spite of missing out on group stage European football for the first time, I still like the chances of Santa Clara to get close to last season’s historical levels of performance and challenge to be amongst the best of the rest.


They sit in ninth at present with just 11 points, but both their underlying data and my model has them closer to being the 6th or 7th best team based on their performances.


With no midweek distractions anymore, expect them to perform better than expected in an upcoming run of tricky looking fixtures.


One team they’ll face in their next five is Rio Ave, a side I feel could be headed in the opposite direction.


Level on points with Santa Clara, they’ve actually overperformed at both ends of the pitch so far, especially in attack, scoring close to four goals more than you’d have likely seen based on the quality of the chances they’ve generated.


Whether this is luck or excellent finishing remains in question, but as my ratings have them as comfortably a bottom half side, I’m willing to take a chance on it being the latter and say they’re a side to fade over the next month or two.


Felix's three best football bets for Saturday November 1st 2025


Dunkerque +0.5 AH (double chance) vs Reims - 33/40 (Bet365)


Reims are one of the strongest teams in France’s second tier, having come down from Ligue 1 this season – but Dunkerque’s performances have been better than their results so far, and my own ratings suggest there is even less of a gap between them.


I make this 2nd vs 5th rather than 5th vs 8th and there’s enough value in the prices here to want to get two out of the three results on side and essentially back against the home win.


Under 2.25 Asian goals in Lokomotiv Plovdev vs Botev Plovdiv - 19/20


Derby games are normally tight, feisty affairs even when the two sides sit towards opposite ends of the table.


When you add in the facts that neither side’s attacks have really got firing yet, nor that in my estimation the gap between the teams isn’t as big as the market would suggest, something like a 1-0 home win doesn’t at all look unlikely here – and even a two goal affair would see us win half of this bet.


BTTS in Nublense vs Colo Colo - 5/6


You know the drill by now with the both teams to score pick; try and find a game with a decent goal line where the teams are theoretically much closer in ability to what the odds would suggest.


This week, that leads us to Chile for an encounter where the goal line is set just under 2.5 but the discrepancy in the assessment of the two sides, particularly with Nublense at home, more than makes up for that being slightly lower than we would like.


They may come away without a point ,but I’m expecting them to at least make this competitive and both sides have enough goals spread across their respective frontlines to make this one a lively runner.


*All prices with Bet365, correct as of 5pm on 30/10/25.


Felix Morson-Pate is a part of the Odds Now football tipping team, taking a data-driven and statistical approach to his betting.

As well as presenting the Bettor Days Ahead podcast on the Odds Now YouTube channel alongside Matt Hill, Felix helps readers unearth value in some of the world's more obscure leagues via his World of Wagers column.

Felix works in the betting industry in a trading team and details his own self-made models via his Looks Good on Paper personal project.

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