World of Wagers: Football betting tips for October 4th 2025

Odds Now's resident football data expert Felix Morson-Pate returns with his latest World of Wagers column, identifying betting angles from various leagues around the globe using his wealth of statistical analysis tools.

This week's League in Focus - German Bundesliga

One of Europe’s most top heavy elite domestic leagues, Bayer Leverkusen’s fairytale invincible run two seasons ago is the only time in the last 13 years that the Bayern Munich juggernaut hasn’t lifted the title come May.

Step away from the top of the table however, and you tend to get a very competitive mid table with a rotating cast of teams battling it out for the European spots each season.

One team to try and get on side in the coming weeks would be Wolfsburg, with this weekend’s game at Augsburg kicking off a fairly kind run in October and November.

Both the underlying expected goals data and my own ratings (which focus on deriving team strength from market closing lines) have Wolfsburg rated higher than their current 12th place position, and even the simple fact that they’re currently the only team in the bottom half without a negative goal difference suggests that results should start matching performances sooner rather than later.

As for a team to try and fade, I think Freiburg are ones that I won’t be getting onside all too much.

Frankfurt and Leverkusen in two of their next three league games is on top of not the easiest set of Europa League fixtures – a competition I’m sure they’ll be looking to go well in given the open feel of this season’s renewal.

I think they’ve been punching slightly above their weight in terms of results to date, so expect a dose of regression in the run up to Christmas.

Felix's best bets for Saturday October 4th 2025

1pt - Darmstadt +0 AH vs Holstein Kiel - Evs (Bet365)

I’m keeping things very simple with this Asian Handicap selection.

Darmstadt are top of the 2. Bundesliga on goal difference, are rated as the joint best team on my model, and still have strong underlying on pitch numbers.

Kiel, meanwhile, have not bounced back fully from last season’s relegation from their first ever top flight campaign, with just nine points from seven games and similarly my numbers see them as a mid table team at present.

Put it all together and we’ll double our money if Darmstadt win the game, with the insurance of our stakes back should they draw.

1pt - Over 2.5 Goals: Urawa Red Diamonds vs Vissel Kobe - Evs (Bet365)

I would make Vissel slightly stronger favourites than the market here, but not strong enough to back them.

Instead, I like the goals angle here, particularly because both side’s defences have been drastically overperforming this season based on some of the underlying data, whilst their finishing has been more or less where it should be, if not slightly below par.

Referring to our old friend regression to the mean, if all else is equal I think we’re getting a line here that’s a quarter of a goal too low on the basis of those expected numbers, which we have a good chance of hitting – especially with the recent form of Vissel both domestically and continentally.

1pt - Both teams to score – Lucern vs Sion - 4/6 (Bet365)

I was hoping for slightly bigger odds here given the shape of the 1X2 market, but it’s still a price worth taking based on my model’s assessment of the two sides.

The Super League tends to be a very high scoring league week to week, and when I look at the home and away splits from my ratings, these sides are virtually neck and neck, which is the case in the actual table as well.

Both on 11 points, both scoring and conceding at least once per game on average, both likely to play their part in a competitive affair. So, backing both to find the net is a very strong likelihood here