World of Wagers: Some Serie A's overperformance in Italy

Odds Now's resident football data expert Felix Morson-Pate returns with his latest World of Wagers column, which shines a focus on football's lesser-heralded leagues.

This week, Felix turns his attention to Italy's Serie A and provides three betting tips for matches in Germany's Bundesliga, China's Super League, and Croatia's Football League.

League In Focus: Italian Serie A

A quick glance at the top of the Serie A table after 7 games of the new season, and you might think not too much is amiss. The two Milan giants sit at the top, and just 4 points separate the top 7, all of whom (including new kids on the block Como) you’d have reasonably expected to be there in pre-season.

Lurking in the lower reaches of the top half, however, are two promoted sides who’ve had impressive starts in their own ways, but I think one has a much greater chance of falling off dramatically than the other.

Sassuolo could well continue to re-establish themselves in the Italian top flight, but I’m far more sceptical about the ability of Cremonese to do the same. Sat 10th on 10 points, they have 4 draws, a pair of wins and just a singular loss, not bad on the surface.

Dig deeper, though, and both my ratings (based on market opening and closing lines) and the underlying performance data have them close to, if not the worst, team in the division. You’re unlikely to be able to fade them at short prices, but I’d argue playing some handicaps on their opponents for much of the coming weeks will be more profitable than not.

Meanwhile, it’s been far from an ideal start for Fiorentina, and some may worry that playing Thursday-Sunday for much of the season could affect them negatively.

However, if any side is well used to this, it’s La Viola, having reached at least the Conference League semi-finals in each of the last three seasons. I make them much closer to a lower top half side on my numbers, and I think they will re-find their groove over the coming weeks after a summer of multiple big transfers both in and out of the club.

Felix's best bets for Saturday, October 25th 2025

Bayern Munich -2 AH vs Monchengladbach - 39/40 (Bet365)

Kicking it off with a fairly straightforward selection here. Bayern are absolutely flying, with Harry Kane in one of his best veins of form for a while and a supporting cast including the likes of Olise and Diaz that are playing just as well themselves.

For my money, they might be the best side in Europe at the minute, and they travel to a Gladbach side who are bottom, underperforming at both ends of the pitch, and are generally in quite a bad state at the minute. With a full push on a 2-goal victory here, I’m happy to take this line given Bayern’s attacking exploits thus far.

Under 2.25 Asian Goals Gwangju vs Anyang - 9/10 (Bet365)

Whilst the flow of games for these two sides has been quite contrasting this season, with Anyang games more open, and tighter affairs involving Gwangju, I’d sway towards this playing out like the latter given the circumstances.

The top 2 sides in the bottom half going into the seasonal split, neither side is fully out of the woods in terms of relegation danger as of yet, so caution may be the order of the day, as there will be easier opponents to come.

BTTS Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 - 8/11 (Bet365)

My BTTS strategy generally revolves around looking for games that I make closer to a genuine 50/50 call than the bookmakers do, and that’s exactly the case here.

The home sides are rated about a quarter goal better (likely due to their home advantage), but even factoring that in, I’m struggling to split the sides based on my ratings, and hence, I think that evenness should lead to goals for both sides.