Gab Sutton Weekly: Which three EFL teams have the bookies got most wrong?

EFL pundit Gab Sutton has signed up for another season of exclusive weekly columns right here on Odds Now!

In his first column of 2025, Gab picks out the three EFL teams he suspects the bookies might have misjudged in their early outright markets.

Millwall

Millwall are 4/1 with UK bookmaker William Hill for a top-six Championship finish, having been one of the division’s form sides in the second half of last season.

After Alex Neil took charge in late December, the Lions accrued 37 points from 23 games, with only the top two, plus Sheffield United and Coventry, managing a better record in the same timeframe.

And, so far, the South Londoners haven’t lost anybody of significance, including talisman Mihailo Ivanovic, who scored 11 goals, of all different types, after Neil took charge.

Instead, all departures have been pretty much of club choice, and even loanees Zak Sturge and Josh Coburn have been retained.

So, from a continuity perspective, Millwall are in a great position, where other clubs have needed a rebuild.

The South Bermondsey outfit still have their quintessential aggressive edge, but they can also play a bit, and have a nice blend of youth and experience.

Neil’s side have a top centre-back pairing of athlete Japhet Tanganga and organiser Jake Cooper, the tenacious Billy Mitchell in midfield alongside the cultured Casper de Norre, and a plethora of talent creating for Ivanovic up top.

Oxford

The traders have priced Oxford up as second favourites for relegation, but I suspect it’s just not going to happen with Gary Rowett as manager.

In the former Birmingham boss’ 11 years, on and off, as a manager at this level, his teams have never lost more than three league games in a row, which highlights his ability to strip things back when needed and ensure his teams grind out a result to stabilise a situation.

Meanwhile, in Rowett’s 399 Championship games, his teams have conceded no goals or one on 270 (68% of) occasions, and if you just need one goal to take something from two-thirds of your games, you’re probably not going to stray too far off course.

As such, throughout that period, he’s managed clubs on one of the lower budgets, other than his half-season at Stoke, and the only time he’s been relegated was eight games in his second stint at Blues, in which the team actually delivered top-half form, but results elsewhere meant that was not enough.

So, Rowett’s organisational nous is a big reason to believe in the Yellows retaining their second-tier status, but another is personnel.

They have a fantastic goalkeeper in Jamie Cumming, one of the most aerially dominant centre-backs in the league in Michal Helik, an intelligent, left-footed defender in Ciaron Brown, who won the Oxford Player of the Year last season, while Cameron Brannagan is highly reliable in midfield.

Providing the likes of Brian De Keersmaecker and Will Lankshear can freshen things up in midfield and attack respectively, Rowett’s men should be right as rain.

Unless you're a layer on Betfair, there isn’t a ‘staying up’ market, and I don’t see Oxford finishing top half, so the best way to apply this one is to back them via the double chance in a lot of games, and add their opponents' scoring under 1.5 goals to your accumulators.

Shrewsbury

Shrewsbury are as big as 8/1 with challenger bookmaker Priced Up for relegation from League Two, despite Forest Green and Carlisle having suffered the double drop to the National League in the last two seasons with far greater financial resources.

There are question marks over the compatibility of Michael Appleton, a natural developer of talent, and the squad he inherits, which is an experienced and peak-aged squad that doesn’t have that high-profile reputation from youth level.

So, whether Appleton can adapt to that is a doubt; likewise, how he’ll navigate the sense of unease among Salopians regarding key off-field personnel like owner Roland Wycherley and Director of Football Micky Moore – he’s not the type to galvanise a club.

Without reading too much into the opening day, because one-off results and performances can be deceptive, Shrewsbury drew 0-0 with Bromley and mustered a paltry six shots all afternoon, with just two on target.

Appleton likes his sides to play out from the back, so it’s hardly ideal that they’ve signed centre-backs like Tom Anderson and Will Boyle, who aren’t so good at that side of the game – very different to working with somebody like Lewis Montsma, say, who he had at Lincoln.

So, things could implode at Shrewsbury, and that 8/1 might start to look rather chunky in a few weeks.