Gab Sutton column: Is League One weaker at the top or stronger across the board?

In his latest exclusive Odds Now column, EFL pundit Gab Sutton runs the rule over the state of play in League One.

League One – a weak renewal?

If we look at the 2021-22 and 2022-23 iterations of League One, the top half of the table was really strong.

For instance, there were numerous teams that finished outside the play-offs in 2021-22 – Steven Schumacher’s Plymouth Argyle, Ian Evatt’s Bolton and Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich – that would be automatic promotion challengers in this version of League One.

Conversely, Michael Duff’s Barnsley only managed to finish fourth in 2022-23, whereas this year the same team would be a comfortable top-two side.

So, in that sense, the standard of the league is weaker this year, as the likes of Bradford, Stevenage and Lincoln – a fair way down the ante-post promotion betting lists – all find themselves in the top six.

Frontrunners taking advantage

That’s not to insult those three teams – far from it – because they knew they would have needed external factors to go for them if they were to challenge for promotion before the season, and have simply taken full advantage of the favourable climate of the division.

In this instance, big spenders Luton and Huddersfield have had a slow start, defeated Play-Off participants of last season, Wycombe and Leyton Orient are in the bottom half, while frequent challengers like Peterborough and Barnsley haven’t been able to bounce back from disappointing seasons last year.

The Posh are joined in the bottom four by Blackpool and Plymouth Argyle, who’d anticipated being in the Play-Off shake-up this season, while Reading and Wigan were expecting to be higher than midway through the bottom half.

In other words, nearly half the league are significantly lower than where they’d expected to be, and when there’s that volume of underperformance, it can sow the seeds for surprise packages to ruffle the old regulars.

At the same time, those three deserve immense credit.

Stevenage, for adding new layers of creativity to the rigid defensive base they’ve established on their impressive three-year journey. Bradford, for making tough decisions to recruit so well on top of the squad that won promotion from League Two last season. Lincoln, for building a deep squad with a balance of youth and experience, with a direct, transitional style built around centre-forwards attacking crosses and cut-backs.

READ MORE: Football Punters Panel – expert betting tips for Saturday 22nd November

Still time for things to change

Things may yet even out.

Luton might catch fire under Jack Wilshere, having shown flashes of promise under the talented coach in his early weeks.

Huddersfield have more than enough individual quality to break the top six, if Lee Grant can get it right. Wycombe are upwardly mobile under Michael Duff.

But in general, the big boys aren’t delivering in quite the way some might have expected, and that’s made the league more exciting and entertaining, without being up to it’s usual standards in terms of top-end quality.