Gab Sutton Weekly: Season of the underdogs? League One quarterly review

In his latest Odds Now column, EFL expert pundit Gab Sutton looks at the state of play in League One, with several clubs exceeding expectations in the third tier of English football.

Expecting the unexpected

League One is making a mockery of pundits this season.

In the top eight lie four teams that this writer tipped for a bottom eight finish – Bradford, Stevenage, Wimbledon and Mansfield – and even Lincoln remain relative underdogs at this level.

Meanwhile, the only big-hitters currently in the top six are leaders Stockport and even they’ve not always been convincing performance-wise, and Cardiff, who have lost three of their last six.

Outside the top six, on the other hand, lie Bolton, Huddersfield and Luton, who all have three of the biggest budgets in the division.

Time to stand up and take notice

So, to what extent do we take the opening quarter of the campaign at face value and treat the likes of Bradford and Stevenage as serious promotion contenders?

Conversely, to what extent do we allow room for things to change over the next three quarters of the season, and anticipate improvement from the big clubs?

Wanderers, for instance, have drawn a lot of games in which they’ve been the better side, and now they’re starting to turn those draws into wins.

Huddersfield have a squad that, on paper at least, would hold up at Championship level and should find a formula to put a run together, whether that’s under Lee Grant or somebody else.

READ MORE: Gab Sutton Weekly - My League Two quarterly verdict

Don't write off the favourites

Meanwhile, Luton look rejuvenated under Jack Wilshere; they look better balanced, too, and are creating plenty of chances, which suggests they could string some great form together between now and Christmas.

Say those three sides average 1.8 PPG between now and May, Bolton will be on 81, while Huddersfield and Luton will attain 78 apiece, which could see to a high Play-Off bar.

But if one or two of those teams underdeliver, then it may be easier for more of the incumbents to retain their place.

So, much of the promotion race and Play-Off scramble will be centred around those three teams and whether, and how much they pick up.

Then again, Bradford and Stevenage have to be respected for what they’ve done, sitting proudly in second and fourth with games in hand, respectively.

Recruitment is key

The newly-promoted Bantams have taken League One by storm, on course for a higher points tally thus far than the 78 they squeaked automatic promotion with in League Two.

It shows that, with the help of Director of Football David Sharpe, an inspired appointment in 2024, City have recruited exceptionally well; the vast majority of their signings have been roaring success stories.

The same is true of Stevenage, who have added fresh creativity to their ranks in Phoenix Patterson, Chem Campbell and Bez Lubala, which has inspired improved form from Jamie Reid, who, with a full pre-season, has returned to his 2023-24 output.

Boro have excellent strength in depth, they have an excellent midfield pairing of Jordan Houghton and Harvey White, and are playing with the vibrant dynamism that suggests a team expecting to stay up there.

The big boys will expect to make up some ground, but the way things are going, our third tier could have one or two surprise stories in store.