Expert EFL Analysis: Is League Two everything it seems?

EFL pundit Gab Sutton examines English football’s fourth tier at this early stage.

The 10-Game Theory

There’s always a case for letting seasons breathe before drawing conclusions around where teams are at, and I subscribe to the 10-game theory.

Something is convincing about a double-figured number of games played that makes what we’ve seen so far feel a bit more authoritative and telling.

Yet in League Two, I almost wonder if we may not know where teams are at until a bit later.

There are at least as many teams that featured in the top half of the ante-post promotion betting list placed between 8th and 14th, as there are between 1st and 7th.

That doesn’t mean the betting markets haven’t overestimated some teams, like possibly MK Dons, and underestimated others, like Bromley, but it may also be true that we need to give it to 15 games, or maybe even Christmas, to work out where teams are at.

Even then, we’ve seen teams make crazy runs in the second half of the season to be up there – like Bolton in 2020-21, Bristol Rovers in 2021-22, and Doncaster in 2023-24 – and I would anticipate one story like that this year.

Will the fine margins last?

If we look at the top, Gillingham have 15 points from their first seven, but they’ve often found themselves on the right side of fine margins, and while they’re a well-organised team with a good defence, and a top man manager in Gareth Ainsworth, they’ve not created tonnes of chances in their games so far.

Swindon, on the other hand, have looked great going forward, but I don’t know if I’m willing to place all my trust in Ian Holloway, just yet, nor them, as a club, under current ownership.

Walsall, I’m most convinced by out of the top three, because I think they’ve got ingredients they didn’t have last year – chiefly the class and experience of Aden Flint in defence, although they’ll need to find more of a clinical edge.

Mariners set to be the catch of the season?

I think Grimsby will win the league, just because of how well coached they are; going to MK Dons and dominating the first half, knocking three past them, even if the second half was nervier than they might have liked, represented a serious statement.

The Mariners have a fantastic midfield trio of George McEachran, who’s a wonderful playmaker, flanked by driven athletes in Kieran Green and Evan Khouri, and a front-three of Darragh Burns, Jaze Kabia and Charles Vernam who have struck a real understanding.

Then there’s Bromley, who have been an excellent defensive unit so far, whilst carrying a real threat from set pieces, under a manager in Andy Woodman who has worked wonders.

The Ravens might need to find more open play creativity to last the course, but they’ve had a tremendous start, likewise Crewe, and Chesterfield, who have a wealth of experience, and who I’d expect to come strong.

The Spireites have a centre half in Kyle McFadzean, who I saw in their 2-0 victory at Cheltenham, and I thought he was a class above; he read the game so well with his higher league experience, having been part of a Championship Play-Off Final as recently as 2023, and always seemed so assured under pressure.

Fleetwood, I expect to be rock solid under Pete Wild, although they do have another gear to go up in the creative sense.

Don't ignore the ante-post favourites

It’s hard to envisage MK Dons finishing outside the top seven, with their estimable resources, and then there’s Bristol Rovers, who will be a really united force under Darrell Clarke – a manager Gasheads just love.

Cambridge have what it takes to put a run together, too, under Neil Harris, who I think is an excellent manager at this level; they don’t have a top-seven squad, but they certainly have a top-seven manager.

Then, there’s Notts County, who have a top-end strikeforce in Matthew Dennis and Alassana Jatta, which could take them a long way, while another juggernaut in Tranmere have shown promise under Andy Crosby.

So, there’s the current top seven, but there looks to be plenty of room for manoeuvre.