Gab Sutton – Three EFL teams the bookies underestimating - August 22 2025

In his latest exclusive Odds Now column, EFL pundit Gab Sutton looks at three teams that the bookies may be underestimating in the early weeks of the 2025-26 campaign...

Three EFL teams being underestimated by bookmakers

Derby

Derby County have started the season with back-to-back defeats, and defensive concerns means traders have priced them up as if they are expecting them to suffer another dogfight.

Two games in, however, it’s very easy to draw premature conclusions, and move too far, too quickly, from one’s ante-post stance on a team: after all, sides have lost their first two and gone on to win titles before – not that that’s likely for the Rams.

Clearly, John Eustace has to re-organise his side, after eight goals have been shipped in their first two games, but big parts of the solutions he seeks can come from further recruitment – and players returning from injury.

Centre-backs Sondre Langas and Curtis Nelson, wing-backs Kane Wilson, Owen Beck and Corey Blackett-Taylor, plus forwards Patrick Agyemang and Lars-Jørgen Salvesen are still to return, while recruits Rhian Brewster and Bobby Clark are building fitness.

When all those players come into the side, and maybe one or two final additions, things probably will look a bit different.

Meanwhile, they’ve got a manager in Eustace who’s consistently proven to maximize his resources, having done so emphatically at Birmingham, Blackburn, and with his current employers last season.

Derby are 9/4 with Spreadex and Sporting Index for a top-half finish, and with the quality of management they could be a top half side when everyone’s available.

Peterborough

It’s one thing to have reservations about Peterborough, after last season’s 16th-place finish sandwiched two summer exodus’ of key players – but another thing entirely to see them as relegation fodder.

True, the Posh are in rebuilding mode, and yes, they’ve lost their first four, but look at who they’ve played: promotion favourites Cardiff and Luton, a Barnsley side flying high, and Wigan away which is not an easy game either: all their opponents are 13th and above.

The PE2 outfit have a reliable manager in Darren Ferguson, and a talented squad with plenty of potential, and bags of pace in attacking areas.

The lack of experience is a valid concern, likewise the dearth of big-hitters due to the sales, but they do have Sam Hughes to return to defence, and Archie Collins in midfield, providing a small smattering of knowhow.

There may still be a smidge of value at backing them for a top half finish at 9/4, because once they do settle on a successful dynamic, Ferguson’s teams are capable of putting a run together – especially when the fixtures become more favourable around November and December.

Bristol Rovers

After starting the season with three consecutive defeats, Bristol Rovers have shown signs of life.

Darrell Clarke’s side responded well to being a goal and man down at Chesterfield in the second half, as the title hopefuls needed two late goals to secure the 3-1 win, before turning in another improved performance against Oldham.

The Gas drew 0-0, creating more than enough chances to get their first win of the season, and although that was to no avail, they are at least now off the mark.

Clarke’s teams have a history of not starting as well but coming good towards the end, and it’s easy to forget how changeable League Two can be.

2020-21 Bolton and 2021-22 Bristol Rovers, for instance, were deep inside the bottom half in January and won automatic promotion, while 2023-24 Doncaster were 20th in March and finished 5th.With such fine margins at play, form can dictate so much.

The market may have moved too quickly on Rovers, and the 4/1 available on a squad of their quality to finish in the top seven looks enormous.

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