O'Regan's Longshots: Going card crazy in the Premier League
Fri, 19 Sep 2025
Fri, 19 Sep 2025
Matthew O’Regan returns with his latest longshots column on Odds Now, once again taking aim at the yellow card markets after a profitable time of things last time out.
Last week’s yellow card column could’ve been so good – if only I had advised the Matty Cash and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall singles as a double too! Still, I ended just shy of 1.5 points in profit, and I WANT MORE this week.
After drinking my body weight in pints at the cricket on Saturday, I have had seven long days to mull on this and, yes... I am ready to have my heart broken by referees again.
Let me start by saying the right back against Everton will be booked – but I can't figure out who it will be, so I am leaving that one alone.
1.5pts - Will Hughes Card – 7/2 (Bet365)
1pt - Soungoutou Magassa Card – 3/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts - Hughes and Magassa Card – 17/1 (Bet365)
Will Hughes has managed to get himself booked in four of his five domestic games this season. The only time he stayed out of the referee’s notebook? Last week’s column pick, where he made two fouls against Sunderland, but somehow wriggled away unpunished. Typical.
Still, I’m sticking with the Albino Lee Cattermole to put things right. Over his last 30 games, he’s averaged 2.01 fouls per 90 and picked up 0.41 bookings per 90 – basically a walking yellow card. At this price, it’s another slice of madness worth biting into.
Soungoutou Magassa came off the bench for West Ham against Tottenham and lasted 23 minutes without committing a foul – a rare display of restraint.
At his previous club, though, he showed he’s more than happy to get stuck in, averaging 1.92 fouls and 0.38 yellows per 90. With Tomas Soucek suspended, the youngster should get the nod in midfield – and it would be no shock if he oversteps the mark in his first start.
1.5pts - Anton Stach Card – 4/1 (Bet365)
In Wolves’ five games in all competitions this season, a central midfielder has been booked in every single one – seven in total against the Old Gold.
Step forward Leeds’ Anton Stach – the all-action German import who’s already become a fan favourite since arriving from the Bundesliga.
He’s averaging 1.98 fouls per 90 and chalked up three fouls against Newcastle before repeating the trick against Fulham – that time landing himself a yellow. Given Wolves’ record and Stach’s enthusiasm for a tackle, 4/1 looks a cracking price for him to end up in the book.
1pt - Igor Thiago Card – 3/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt - Ryan Sessengon Card – 5/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts - Sessegnon and Igor Thiago Card – 21/1 (Sky Bet)
Fulham and Brentford meet in West London for the El Poshico. Normally, I avoid backing against Brentford for fouls or cards, but I’m breaking my rule this week with Ryan Sessegnon at 5/1.
His card record might not jump off the page, but he’s committed at least one foul in all three league starts this season – two against Chelsea and three against Leeds. Brentford, meanwhile, have seen a left-back booked in three of their four league games, so Sessegnon looks a strong candidate to join that club.
I’m also sticking with Igor Thiago, who rewarded us last week by hauling down a defender after just eight minutes. He’s now averaging 2.85 fouls per 90 and has been booked in his last three matches. His foul tally reads 3, 2, 2, 4, 2 – consistently busy, consistently rash. In a derby that promises to be more needle than thread, Thiago looks a great bet at the same price to stitch up another yellow.
2pts - Tyler Adams Card – 17/5 (William Hill)
0.5pts - Adrien Truffert Card – 4/1 (William Hill)
0.5pts - Adams, Truffert and Bruno Guimaraes To Be Booked – 65/1 (William Hill)
Onto Sunday’s games, and one with plenty of potential here as Bournemouth face Newcastle.
I missed the Bournemouth–Brighton match last week, but my dad reliably informed me it could easily have seen a red, with Bournemouth flying into tackles. Their tactic is to bait the press and then foul high up the pitch to stop counters – so they rack up fouls for fun. Against a Newcastle side that draw more contact than a Tinder date, that trend should only continue.
I was licking my lips for this game until I saw that Robert Jones had the whistle. He’s a ref with short arms but long pockets – but some of the card prices are too good to turn down.
The standout is Tyler Adams. The Yank landed for us last week and is an even bigger price this time. He’s been booked in his last three, averaging 1.98 fouls per 90 and 0.31 yellows per 90 over his last 30. Newcastle have already drawn a booking from eight different midfielders this season, so Adams at this price is frankly obscene – hence the two-point stake.
Adrien Truffert has made two fouls in three of his four games since joining in the summer. The left back has been brilliant for Bournemouth, but has perhaps found it tough physically. Against what should be a quick Newcastle front line, the 23-year-old may find himself in the referee's notebook.
Rounding off the treble is Bruno Guimaraes – a man who really needs no introduction. He’s already chalked up foul counts of 2, 4, 3 and 2 this season, picking up bookings in two of those games. Over his last 30, he averages exactly 2 fouls per 90 and 0.26 yellows per 90.
Bournemouth have already seen four central midfielders booked against them this season, so the stage is nicely set for Bruno to do what Bruno does best.
1pt - Jurrien Timber Card – 19/5 (William Hill)
1pt - Abdukodir Khusanov- 7/2 (Bet365)
1pt - Martin Zubimendi – 15/4 (Bet365)
0.5pts - Gabriel and Erling Haaland Card - 26/1- Half Point (Sky Bet)
0.25pts - Timber, Khusanov and Zubimendi Card – 91/1 (Bet365)
The game of the weekend sees Arsenal host Manchester City at the Emirates, and this one comes loaded with narrative.
Gabriel and Erling Haaland are set to renew their little feud, and while neither man’s stats scream “yellow,” the storyline does. At 26/1 with Sky Bet, it’s worth a speculative half-point in case tempers boil over.
For something with more statistical backbone, Jurrien Timber looks a big price for a card. He’s set to be tested by Jeremy Doku, who’s rediscovered his swagger and drawn seven fouls in his last two starts.
On the other flank, Abdukodir Khusanov could be worth a look too. The Uzbek right-back made two fouls against Manchester United and will likely be up against Ebere Eze – a nightmare matchup. We’ve already seen Neco Williams and Jayden Bogle booked trying to deal with Arsenal’s livewire winger, and Khusanov is in an unnatural position defensively, which only adds to the risk.
And finally, there’s Martin Zubimendi – a player I was on last week, and I’m happy to go back to. He’s already been booked twice in five starts this season, committing five fouls, and looks overpriced again to pick up another.
Despite only being in his early 20s, Matthew O'Regan has wasted little time making a name for himself as a sound footballing judge.
With a strong social media following, gained as a result of his uncanny ability to repeatedly land big-priced winners, Matthew now shares his insights on the beautiful game – and how to profit on it – as his profession.
He credits most of his betting skill to working in a bookmaker shop as a youngster, seeing the silly mistakes most punters make which inspired him to try and attack things from a different angle.
When he's not scouring markets and writing columns, Matthew follows Brighton and his local non-league club Worthing.
Despite only being in his early 20s, Matthew O'Regan has wasted little time making a name for himself as a sound footballing judge.
With a strong social media following, gained as a result of his uncanny ability to repeatedly land big-priced winners, Matthew now shares his insights on the beautiful game – and how to profit on it – as his profession.
He credits most of his betting skill to working in a bookmaker shop as a youngster, seeing the silly mistakes most punters make which inspired him to try and attack things from a different angle.
When he's not scouring markets and writing columns, Matthew follows Brighton and his local non-league club Worthing.
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