2025 Horse Racing Classics: Five-day declarations analysis for 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas

The flat season's first two Classics take place this weekend, meaning our resident expert Adam Smith (@Smido11) is in his element!

Our man is on hand to take you through the five-day declarations for both the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas, with forensic analysis of the field and potential betting angles.

2,000 Guineas five-day declarations – field analysis

Shadow Of Light looks value

The five day confirmations are in for the first Classic of the season, the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket this Saturday.

There are 17 possible runners for the colts Classic, with runaway Craven winner Field Of Gold topping the ante post market at 7/4. And big news broke 24 hours after the five day confirmations out of Coolmore, who reported on Tuesday morning that second favourite Twain has scoped badly and is unlikely to make Saturday.

This brings stablemate Expanded right into play, who has effectively replaced Twain as the second favourite in the ante post markets.

As already reported in this column, it’s then a case of the first time out brigade in Twain, Scorthy Champ, Shadow Of Light and Green Impact. How Shadow Of Light is currently a bigger price than Ruling Court, I don’t know.

A two-time Group 1 winner last year, the European Champion two year old, likely to be ridden by William Buick. Yes, he might not stay the trip but he’s a bigger price than Ruling Court who’s best career achievement to date is a Meydan Listed win at 4/9.

That’s not to say Ruling Court isn’t any good, moreover saying that Shadow Of Light is the most overpriced as we stand. And I think Shadow Of Light will get the trip anyway.

Seven furlongs on soft ground in the Dewhurst, which was a very funny race with five runners split into two groups. Quite a lot went wrong for Shadow Of Light that day and he still won. So, with that in mind, 9/1 is too big.

There’s still plenty in this market at prices of 20/1 or less that are more likely not to run than run.

Expanded – will he be fit and firing given he’s a late replacement for Twain?

Henri Matisse – no one knows where he’s going next, possibly France

Jonquil – French Guineas

Cosmic Year – entered in a seven furlong race this Friday

That leads me even more to Shadow Of Light. He’s got better form than Scorthy Champ, Ruling Court and Twain yet is a bigger price than them.

1,000 Guineas five-day declarations - field analysis

Hard to oppose Desert Flower at this stage

The ladies take centre stage 24 hours later with the unbeaten Desert Flower no bigger than EVS to win the 1,000 Guineas – a position she’s held in the ante post market for some months.

Lake Victoria was similarly unbeaten as a juvenile and actually rated two pounds higher than Desert Flower by the handicapper. But Lake Victoria’s position in the market is based more on her readiness for the race rather than talent in comparison to Desert Flower.

The mixed messages have been abundant from Aidan O’Brien with this horse. ‘We’re training her for the race but she might not be ready. She might go to the Curragh the day after.’

Would any other trainer get away with saying that? I’m not sure.

Unusually, Ballydoyle aren’t blessed with top notch second and third choices in the 1,000 Guineas this year so may well run Lake Victoria even if not fully fit.

Treat it as a trial, tank empties in the final furlong and the press happily dub it a perfect seasonal reappearance before she goes on to the Irish 1,000 Guineas. Nothing to see here.

But this is a Classic race not a public gallop, and should be called out as such.

As expected, shock Fred Darling winner Duty First has been supplemented for the 1,000 Guineas for Archie Watson and is due to be ridden by Hollie Doyle.

And finally, as not expected, my ante post selection Celestial Orbit has been taken out and apparently heads to France, so its minus two points on my YouTube tipping P&L.

So, no bet in the 1,000 Guineas at this stage for me. I'll be waiting for final decs and ground conditions.