Ante Post Analysis: A first look at this year's St Leger

In his latest Ante Post Analysis column, Races Now’s Adam Smith gives us his insight into the current shape of the 2026 St Leger market.

This time a year ago I called the British representation in the St Leger an "embarrassment".

Well, I've got some bad news. This year it's even worse as a result of the decision to steer Maltese Cross towards Paris rather than Doncaster.

The William Haggas-trained Grand Prix de Paris winner was as short as 5/4 for the Leger, and rightly so after he won the Voltigeur at York under a five-pound penalty.

Shame, because I think he would have won this. Now he's as short as 6/1 to win the Arc. Good luck to him. I'd have gone to the Leger if I owned him.

2026 St Leger ante post analysis

Seven runners contested the final Classic of the season in 2025, with the three British horses coming into the race rated 112, 105 and 101. The top three home-soil horses in the ante-post betting this year have ratings of 104, 94 and 106.

Sixteen entries at this stage; seven trained by Aidan O'Brien and two by his son Joseph. The elder has won the last three renewals and five of the last nine.

Regular viewers of Races Now on YouTube will know of a man we refer to as the 'Trader Of The Channel'. His comments to me were: "It's the worst Classic I've ever seen and the Lads will decide which one wins."

He may well be right, given "the Lads" have Derby winner and Voltigeur third Christmas Day (7/4) and Voltigeur second Pierre Bonnard (3/1) at the head of the market. The shortest British runner is 14/1.

Are the Coolmore runners being underestimated?

I think the York Ebor Festival was used by Aidan O'Brien as a stepping stone for a few of his horses. He admitted as much when saying Constitution River had been off a "long time" and will come forward for the run. Who knew the 47 days between the Eclipse and Juddmonte was a "long time".

I suspect connections would draw similar conclusions from the runs of Christmas Day and Pierre Bonnard, given both had run at Epsom and both in the Irish Derby on June 28th.

Is the St Leger even a top Coolmore priority anyway? It clashes with Irish Champions Day at Leopardstown. Last year we had Scandinavia ridden by Tom Marquand and Lambourn by Sean Levey. It'll be interesting to see who gets the rides this year.

Enceladus an obvious St Leger contender

Enceladus (11/4) is the improver in the field, having not participated in any Classics thus far. An impressive handicap winner at Royal Ascot and even more so when powering away in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.

A big player if turning up on Town Moor, but the worry would be him running elsewhere, like the Irish St Leger or even the Melbourne Cup. Not an ante-post bet.

Godolphin runners fail to convince

Relative to the investment made in the operation, Godolphin are having a shocking year on the track. Many a major meeting passes by with less than a handful of Godolphin runners.

They have Del Maro (14/1) entered here, but he hasn't been seen since July 9th when third in the Bahrain Trophy. Winner since sold abroad. Second since beaten 21 lengths in the Voltigeur. Not for me.

Alderman (50/1) also ran in that Newmarket race but was massively disappointing. His Derby fifth before that at 100/1 was full of promise, but that promise has since petered out rather quickly.

Montreal looks overpriced at 66/1

So, with the British contingent being no good and Joseph's leading light unable to be fully relied upon to run, we are back to playing AOB bingo.

On the basis that I can't split Christmas Day and Pierre Bonnard, and think both are distinctly beatable and generally underwhelming, I am backing Montreal each-way at a whopping price.

Montreal (66/1) went into the winter near the top of the Derby markets following an eight-length demolition job on his second start. I thought he put in a cracking effort in the French Derby when not actually trying to win and there to set the pace for Constitution River, eventually finishing third in an AOB one-two-three.

He was given a 76-day break before turning up in the Group 2 Prix d'Ornano over ten furlongs. Going off the 11/10 favourite, he led the small field and tried to kick on before emptying pretty quickly. Clearly, that trip was too short for him.

He's bred to a load of stayers, unexposed and has sprinkles of talent in his form book.

Caveats include: he could be used as a pacemaker in a year where pacemakers are getting more ridiculous as the season goes on, and he could run in an alternative race on Irish Champions Weekend. But we are compensated with his 66/1 and I'm happy with a small bet each-way.

Adam Smith's ante post 2026 St Leger best bet

0.25pt EW – Montreal to win the St Leger – 66/1 (EW 3 places, 1/5 odds)