Thu, 16 Oct 2025
A cracking card awaits from Ascot this Saturday as Champions Day brings the curtain down on another fantastic UK flat season. Adam Smith from Races Now pops in to give us a steer on the action and offer up his best bets.
Five Group One races, big fields in four of them, good ground and a crescendo of the best horses in Britain, Ireland and France clashing in the Champion Stakes at 4:05. It really is a vintage renewal of British Champions Day at Ascot this Saturday. What more do you want?
I penned an in-depth ante post preview last week and with all the headline acts standing their ground at final decs, there are no big surprises.
Due to the Long Distance Cup only attracting six entries on Monday, one less on Thursday, the running order has been slightly amended to make the smallest field race the opener. Fair enough.
It is Trawlerman’s race to lose and that’s why he’s 1/2 to add this now Group One to his Ascot Gold Cup and Lonsdale Cup to his 2025 haul. He’s head and shoulders above this lot on all known form.
I do like Stay True and think he cold be a serious animal next year, but he might not be ready for this at this stage in his life. This will be Stay True’s fifth career start after all, he hasn’t actually won any of his most recent three.
A straight forward start for John and Thady Gosden by the looks of it, on what could be a massive day for them.
A field of 13 for the inaugural British Champions Day Two Year Old Conditions Stakes over six furlongs is next up. I didn’t know what to expect here in terms of entries, it’s clearly not a Group race (yet) but does have £250,000 in the prize pot.
Words Of Truth is odds on, having won his last three including the Group Two Mill Reef most recently (no penalty). Similarly, Division has won his last three at a lower level in what will be a busy day for the Wathnan boys.
That Mill Reef was attritional for juveniles to say the very least and Words Of Truth (who had drifted throughout the day) won well when he eventually got his act together. First and second a mile clear of the rest that day – form questionable. I’d be in no rush to back him at odds on, albeit he is the rightful favourite.
Coolmore were always going to have a go at this prize, on this day, and are represented by Mission Central and Kansas.
The latter went off 9/4 in a Doncaster Group Two a month ago but it was the former who got closest to winning (second) at 10/1, with Mission Central disappointing in sixth.
Connections clearly think that form can be reversed as Mission Central is once again first choice on jockey bookings. That ground at Doncaster was a mess and Mission Central is worth another chance on quicker ground and back up to six furlongs.
We are then treated to a maximum field of 20 in the Champion Sprint Clearly a case can be made for many when it’s 4/1 the field.
I tipped No Half Measures last week at 66/1 on the basis that she won the July Cup fair and square. Big Mojo was second that day and he went on to win the Sprint Cup and is 5/1 here, and No Half Measures was hampered in said Sprint Cup.
Would I be in a rush to back her at 25/1 now? Maybe not. Ultimately she has one piece of standout form and one piece only. But I’m happy at 66/1.
Lazzat is the class act in here. His Jubilee win over course and distance here in June is by far and away the best piece of sprinting form in Europe this year, three and a half lengths clear of the next European contender with a 2/1 favourite that day from Japan in second.
Yes, he was beaten at odds on in a French Group One on his next start, eventually second on a flat run. Then incredibly well backed to go off even money for the Sprint Cup at Haydock, where he had absolutely no chance from a low draw – none. The smaller field in the Maurice De Gheest didn’t suit his front running style where he was beaten late by one ridden right at the back for the most part and Lazzat didn’t fold when headed either.
You could spin round this race for an hour looking for value, but Lazzat is the one they have to beat for reasons given. And if and when he goes in at 4/1 you’ll be wondering why you didn’t back the class horse in the race at such a big price. William Hill are even betting each way four places at a quarter if you are that way inclined. Bet.
Kalpana leads the way by some distance purely on ratings in the Fillies And Mares but unlike the analysis on the previous race, I don’t think it’s that clear cut.
Kalpana ran in the Arc just 13 days ago and wants softer ground to be seen at her best. Whilst next in the market, Estrange and Waardah are the unexposed types on the up.
I flirted with backing an O’Brien horse blind given his record in this race and with late blooming fillies generally. But even that genius has his work cut out with Bedtime Story who hasn’t won any of her last eight and Vallet Slippers who has never won a race full stop or tried beyond 10 furlongs.
Too many question marks for me, so no bet here.
Sixteen in the Queen Elizabeth II, which is on the massive side.
The story has been well told already. Field Of Gold returns from a Sussex Stakes setback (both in the performance and a slight injury). Electric earlier in the season against his own age but his closest challengers Cosmic Year and Henri Mattisse haven’t turned out to be any good have they?
Rosallion has found it hard to win as a four year old. Fallen Angel has never delivered against her own sex. Docklands only runs well at Ascot, which is no bad thing.
I’ve tipped Never So Brave on these pages already at 12/1. He’s 11/1 now and I wouldn’t put you off each way. Career best required in a deep field, no doubt – but I’d much prefer to back Never So Brave at 11/1 than Rosallion at 4/1.
You have to scroll a long way down the page to find January at 100/1. I think that is way too big. Second in the Falmouth in July, not Ryan Moore’s finest hour and probably should have won. A head second behind Fallen Angel (8/1 for this) in a August where she travelled much the best and was in front 20 yards from the line. Flat as a pancake in the Matron. Then ran in the Prix De L’Opera on Arc weekend where the ground was too soft and the trip to far, and got absolutely mullered up the straight.
Clearly we are going to need a fair bit to go right backing 100/1 shots but January’s dam was a neck second in this very race at 33/1 seven years ago. Tongue tie on first time might help. And question marks over quite a few others in the race – Field Of Gold coming back from a setback? Is Rosallion that good? Fallen Angel against the boys? I'll take my chance.
Finally, a word on the main event which is without doubt the best race on paper ran in the UK this year.
Ombudsman vs Delacroix vs Calandagan. And that’s not all; Almaqam and Economics aren’t bad either and find themselves at 16/1 each.
I can’t split the big three. I’d be surprised if anyone confidently can to be honest. A fantastic race in prospect.
Gun to the head selection? Ombudsman. But it's no bet from me. What a day in store.
1.30pm - 0.5pt EW - Mission Central - 17/2 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
2.05pm - 1pt - Lazzat - 9/2
3.25pm - 0.5pt EW - January - 100/1 (4 places, 1/5 odds)
Total staked - 3pts
Adam Smith has been steering the ship on our Races Now channel since its inception and can usually be found trying to keep his partner SD in check over on their weekly YouTube shows.
'Smido' is a flat lover and keeps readers abreast of all the big talking points throughout the summer action via his Focus On The Flat column, which you can read exclusively here on OddsNow.com
He puts the bulk of his focus on high-quality racing, with Group 1s top of the list – previewing all the big events ante post in meticulous detail.
Away from the racetrack, Smido also loves the darts and also follows UFC, NRL and Nottingham Forest avidly – without any financial interests!
Adam Smith has been steering the ship on our Races Now channel since its inception and can usually be found trying to keep his partner SD in check over on their weekly YouTube shows.
'Smido' is a flat lover and keeps readers abreast of all the big talking points throughout the summer action via his Focus On The Flat column, which you can read exclusively here on OddsNow.com
He puts the bulk of his focus on high-quality racing, with Group 1s top of the list – previewing all the big events ante post in meticulous detail.
Away from the racetrack, Smido also loves the darts and also follows UFC, NRL and Nottingham Forest avidly – without any financial interests!
Adam's p/l
7 Days
30 Days
Year 2025
🗣️ "He's had a magnificent season." 🗣️ "He's a horse I'm a big fan of." @WilliamBuickX on Trawlerman's attempt to win a second Long Distance Cup & a word too on Words Of Truth on @ChampionsDay
28 runners, only ever one winner 🥇 Mission Central, since gelded following a quiet debut in April, cuts loose @curraghrace 💥 @coolmorestud | @Ballydoyle
CINDERELLA'S DREAM WINS THE TATTERSALLS FALMOUTH STAKES! 🏆 A fairytale week for Godolphin! 🔵 @godolphin | @NewmarketRace | | @WilliamBuickX
Lazzat DENIES Satono Reve ❌ Wathnan take their FIFTH #RoyalAscot winner this week, this time in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes 🏆