2025 City Of York Stakes ante-post analysis

Britain has its first seven furlong all age Group One race and it’s been a long time coming.

Goodwood (Lennox), Newbury (Hungerford) and York (City Of York) have long campaigned to the European Pattern Committee to have their respective Group Twos upgraded and York have won the race to make it four top-level events at their Ebor Festival in late August. We all know York is a well ran course and fair play to them.

2025 City Of York Stakes betting tips

A different kettle of fish

The newly upgraded City Of York Stakes promises to look vastly different to the Group Two of yesteryear.

Early entries eight weeks prior to the August 23rd showpiece are full of intrigue. Guineas winners Rosallion and Notable Speech hold entries, alongside Lazaat who was so impressive when winning the six furlong Jubilee at the Royal meeting.

No longer is this a seven furlong specialist race. With the Group One status and upgraded prize money on offer, they’ll be all sorts of top notch animals from different distances and even different countries trying their luck.

 It’s also worth noting that this was a Group Three until 2018 and upgraded to a Group Two a year later, a rapid transformation. 

Which horses will turn up?

Options is the key to this ante post market. Virtually all of the 39 entries would have other possible options. So clearly from an ante post perspective, we are in tricky territory.

In recent days, however, the picture has become clearer with running plans filtering out.

Lazzat was the original ante post favourite and now looks unlikely with the Maurice De Gheest and Sprint Cup higher up his priority list. Rosallion then became favourite following his second in the Sussex Stakes, but Jacques Le Marois at Deauville is his next target. I thought Rosallion looked pretty perfect for this race but connections are understandbly sticking to a mile.

The six furlong experiment for Notable Speech failed at the July Cup when trying that trip for the first time in his life. Beforehand, I said it was either opportunistic placing in a poor six furlong race, or desperate, given Notable Speech had gone backwards rather than forwards on his two starts so far this season.

Seven furlongs might well suit him and now connections are in roll the dice type mood with him, you could see him running. I just think his form is going backwards in 2025.

Similar comments would apply to stablemate Shadow Of Light ,who is also going the wrong way in the form book. It’s unlikely they both run in the same race anyway.

Talking of options, there might not be a horse in training with more plausibly suitable races than Never So Brave. Wins at Ascot over seven (straight) and eight (round) in the space of a month. I thought he won the Group Two Summer Mile in really nice fashion. As with most of these, we are not 100% sure the City Of York is on his agenda. But I think he looks perfect for it.

Lake Forest makes plenty of appeal

To feed into their new Group One, York acquired a fixture from Newmarket which included the Group Three Criterion Stakes over the same course and distance.

This year, it was won by Quinault at a double figure price and from the front. Lake Forest disappointed big time in the Criterion, trailing in sixth of eight as 13/8 favourite, running a nothing race after being squeezed shortly after the start.

Connections would have had a big circle around the 23rd August as soon as this race was upgraded to a Group One. Lake Forest was in front of Lazzat on his final start of 2024, in Australia. He was actually withdrawn at the start for this very race last year when misbehaving himself.

Lake Forest ran as well as anything in the Queen Anne despite not staying well enough. He would have been well fancied for this race in the immediate aftermath of Royal Ascot for sure.

So if you are willing to put a line through the Criterion as being too bad to be true, 16/1 for the City Of York looks like a fair price to me. Likely runner, course form and no problem with quick August ground.

Paborous worth a poke at big price

You have to be similarly forgiving of his last run, but Ed Bethell's Paborus also remains of interest for this race.

Bang impressive first time up this season at Thirsk, purchased by Wathnan in the interim and is another who's season may well have been shaped around this race (and the Foret on Arc day).

His run in the Criterion for third was certainly much better than Lake Forest and it was Paborus's first run for 77 days in a campaign that is clearly weighted towards the second half of the season.

He's entered in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury on the 16th August and that might be a prudent stepping stone to the Foret, so with the threat of him not running, a small ante post bet is advised at 33/1. 

Adam Smith's ante post selections for the 2025 City Of York Stakes

1pt EW - Lake Forest to win the City Of York Stakes - 14/1 (William Hill - EW 3 places 1/5 odds)

0.25pt EW - Paborus to win the City Of York Stakes - 33/1 (Various - EW 3 places 1/5 odds)