Ante Post Analysis: Ascot hero Kalpana appeals at 12/1 for Arc glory

Races Now's Adam Smith takes a look at the current ante post market for October’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, where he thinks the Ascot King George winner from last weekend may offer some value at current quotes.

Ante Post Analysis: 12/1 Kalpana could go close in the Arc

Underwhelming three-year-old crop?

“Three-year-olds have a great record in the Arc.”

You’ve heard that one before, haven’t you? With fair reason, too, given the Classic generation have won 14 renewals this century. So, that is the usual starting point when looking for an early ante post bet in Europe’s richest race – but this year, the three-year-olds are few and far between.

Yes, Constitution River (8/1) finds himself as second in the market, but he does not want a yard further than ten furlongs to my eye. The same comments may apply to the unbeaten Diamond Necklace (14/1), for all I do think she is potentially exceptional.

So, that’s the French Derby and Oaks winners written off. The Derby winner, Christmas Day (20/1), has already been proven as a monsoon-based fluke, although I suppose you can’t rule out similar conditions at Longchamp in the first week in October. Heavy ground Arcs don’t happen quite as often as you might assume, though.

Oaks winner Thundering On (14/1) could be a player on her Epsom form but has since been turned over against her elders. Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini (25/1) is surely not Paris-bound with his preference for quick ground. And is he any good anyway? Irish Oaks winner Johanna Walsh isn’t even priced up in the Arc ante post market as things stand.

As my esteemed colleague SD said recently, “my working hypotheses is that the three-year-old fillies are crap.” That may well extend to the boys, too.

The most likely three-year-old contender at this stage has to be Maltese Cross (16/1) from the Haggas yard. Lingfield Derby Trial winner, second in the Epsom bog and has since backed up big time in the Group One Grand Prix De Paris over the Arc course and distance.

Causeway disappointed that day, of course, but the form line through head second Ancient Egypt stands up. He clearly stays the trip and has shown he can go on varying ground conditions. A definite player. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran in the St Leger and the Arc, too.

READ MORE: Racing Opinion – SD’s praise for a brilliant Saturday of rasing

Ascot winner Kalpana looks value

So that’s the three-year-olds boldly downplayed nine weeks before the race.

Of course it isn’t that straightforward. But put simply – I can’t see a lot of three-year-old runners this year, and those that are likely to run aren’t superstars.

Last year’s winner Daryz (7/2) certainly does have a sprinkling of superstar about him. My worry with the reigning champ is that he has only ever ran over the mile and a half trip once, so does he really want the twelve furlongs? Or does he just get away with it?

I had Minnie Hauk (25/1) down as my most likely bet at this stage. That was before she ran disappointingly in the King George on Saturday. I was half surprised she ran at all, given that the Ballydoyle squad had Benvenuto to concentrate their King George efforts on.

Minnie Hauk had what looked the perfect set up. Sitting third behind two pacemaking stablemates, she just about hit the front coming into the straight before fading away very quickly. She was a head second in the Arc last year but after that Ascot disappointment, I’d wonder whether she might not even return to Paris at all.

That leads me to last Saturday’s winner.

I fancied Kalpana for the Arc this time a year ago after her second in the King George. This year, she has just won a deeper King George in a career-best showing, is likely to run, and yet remains available at 12/1. That doesn’t quite add up to me.

Her seventh in the race last year was a fair effort. Clearly, she’s better than ever this summer and looks happy with any type of ground.

Talking of ground, soft specialists like Estrange (16/1) and Bay City Roller (20/1) must also come into calculations having both won Group Ones already this year.

I have six of the top ten in the betting as either ground dependent or unlikely runners, and consider the French contingent away from the favourite miles off it on what we have seen so far.

So, at this stage, I’ll be backing Kalpana each way. I can’t believe she isn’t a single figure price to be honest and am happy to take my chance at the current quote.

Smido’s ante post selection for the 2026 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

1pt EW - Kalpana to win the 2026 Arc - 12/1 (Bet365 - 3 places, 1/5 odds)

Total staked - 2pts

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