In the latest of his Ante Post Analysis columns, Races Now's flat expert Adam 'Smido' Smith takes an early look towards the 2025 Arc market, two months out from raceday.

2025 Prix De l'Arc De Triomphe betting tips

The conclusion of the King George at Ascot marks a point in my calendar to take an ante post first look at the Prix De l’Arc De Triomphe, Europe’s premier middle distance showpiece at Longchamp on the first Sunday in October.

Classic winners have been crowned in Derbys and Oaks in England, Ireland and France, heads are now starting to turn towards the autumn Group Ones and trainers around Europe (and beyond) will be making plans around the Arc as we speak.

There was a time where the King George was more prestigious than the Arc. That is clearly no longer the case and they are very different races.

For a start, look at the average field size over the last decade (14.8 vs 7.5) and the difference in prize money (last year, £2,484,347 vs £708,875). Then sprinkle in an international interest – some would say obsession – from the Japanese, who are becoming a bigger player in the world's best turf races as every year ticks by.

This is not to take a dump on the King George. In fact, three of the last eight Arc winners ran in the King George in the same season. And Ascot are making a sterling effort to increase prize money to £2 million from next year onwards. They are just very, very different races, despite both being twelve furlong Group Ones.

Key factors to unearthing the 2025 Arc winner

First things first with betting ante post on the Arc, it’s early October and we should assume soft ground is likely. There are further caveats, as the going descriptions for Longchamp that appear on your favourite UK based racing apps often vary massively from what the clock tells us.

It’s enough to put you off betting in France generally, and indeed has put me off over the years. Ace Impact was a fantastic winner in 2023 on ground described to UK punters as good to soft, yet they went a whopping 3.9 seconds under the so-called standard that day.

This time three weeks ago, it was 14/1 the field in the Arc betting. As wide open as wide open could be. And this comes at a time when we have not one but two dual classic winners in Lambourn (English and Irish Derby) and Minnie Hauk (English and Irish Oaks).

If I’d have told you at the start of the year Aidan O’Brien would have a dual Derby winner unbeaten in 2025 available at 16/1 for the Arc following the conclusion of the King George, you may have reported me to IBAS. But that’s where we find ourselves with Lambourn, who may go down the St Leger route via what is quickly becoming O’Brien’s favourite Group Two race – the Voltigeur at York.

O’Brien running horses in the St Leger and the Arc just three weeks later wouldn’t be unusual for the Ballydoyle supremo – it just hasn’t yielded positive Paris results for him. See Leading Light, Camelot (2nd), Capri, Kew Gardens and Continuous, who won the St Leger and went to Longchamp three weeks later and finished down the field.

There was really only one runner in this year's King George that could have an impact on the Arc betting anyway. Calandagan and Rebel’s Romance are geldings, while Jan Brueghel has never been talked as an Arc horse (wrongly or rightly).

So, that leads us to Kalpana, who drifted from 9/2 after final decs out to 15/2 at the off but duly ran a career best, swooping passed Jan Brueghel and Rebel’s Romance (slightly hampered) like they were stood still.

She looked all over the winner two out before the expectedly patiently ridden Calandagan mowed her down late. A perfect run with a view to the Arc. Swiftly cut from 16/1 to as short as 7/1 for the Longchamp showpiece thereafter. She’ll appreciate more dig in the ground come October and is a big big player, as has been touted ever since her impressive win at Ascot on Champions Day last year.

Upcoming races could offer clues between now and October

Between now and the first Sunday in October, which races could have an impact on this market?

Well, the Juddmonte at York will be contested by out and out ten furlong horses; Delacroix, Ombudsman, Sea The Fire, etc. A similar cast may well go to the Irish Champion Stakes in mid-September (no ante post betting is available for that yet).

The Yorkshire Oaks might be most telling where Minnie Hauk and Estange could run but Kalpana is no longer entered, so her connections must have different plans.

Then we are on to the official Arc trials, where the two races aimed at male horses (Niel and Foy) haven’t produced a winner since Rail Link way back in 2006. The Vermeille for the girls is a different kettle of fish as that is a Group One in its own right and has given us recent Arc winners like Bluestocking last year and Treve in 2014. There could be a more significant runner in the Foy this year as Ballydoyle’s supposed chief hope, Los Angeles, is pencilled in to run there.

French hopefuls merit attention

What about the home team? The French have won three of the last six and eleven this century, after all.

Sosie went off favourite last year and finished fourth. He’s had a somewhat mixed time of it this year with early season Group One wins in the Ganay and d’Ispahan before a dead last in quick ground Eclipse at Sandown. A mid-season rest before a trial looks on the cards, marking typical Andre Fabre Arc prep.

Three year old filly Gezora is next up. Winner of the Diane, which is always a good sign for an Arc contender and likely to go to the Vermeille. That Diane didn’t look a great renewal to me and she’s yet to try over a mile and a half, though she should stay on breeding and loves soft ground.

Gezora could meet Aventure in the Vermeille, a pretty consistent horse but yet to win at the top level and couldn’t get anyway near Calandagan in a five-runner Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in June.

The fourth and final French hope to mention is Daryz, who didn’t run at all as a juvenile, is unbeaten in four runs this year including a Group Two last time over Bay City Roller, who pretty much ran a stinker in the York Stakes. Clearly a very exciting prospect in the Aga Khan colours and looks sure to relish the Arc trip.

Daryz is the shortest priced French trained horse at the moment and could even run in the Juddmonte in August. Definite potential to be a market mover.

Back to Minnie Hauk, who is unbeaten in three starts this year and was workwomanlike when long odds-on to win the Irish Oaks. I think she’s very good and will be better when tested against better opposition and possibly even the boys.

In comparison to Kalpana, Minnie Hauk is much less proven on those metrics, but clearly high in potential. Would she be the O’Brien first string even if Los Angeles runs in the Arc as planned. The market has the filly at a shorter price of the two, that could look very different on the day.

This far away from an ante post race, you can quickly start marking them off. At current prices – and a reminder it’s effectively 7/1 the field – Ombudsman (16/1) won’t stay, See The Fire (20/1) won’t stay, Delacroix (20/1) won’t stay, Camille Pissarro (33/1) won’t stay, Jan Brueghel (33/1) wants quick ground, Desert Flower (50/1)... LOL.

Ante Post bet bet for the 2025 Prix De l'Arc De Triomphe

Without question, Kalpana is the bet at this stage.

Juddmonte aren’t bad at winning the Arc with a filly in recent years and she’s had the perfect Arc season thus far; steadily improving, proven at the trip, proven at the ground and proven against the boys. And she’s 7/1.

What more could you want? Count me in.

Smido's 2025 Arc Ante Post best bet:

1pt win - Kalpana - 7/1 (various)

(advised on YouTube at 8/1 on 27/07/2025)