Ante Post Analysis: A first look at this year's Yorkshire Oaks

In the second of a four-part series, Races Now’s Adam Smith continues his look at the feature races of the 2026 York Ebor Meeting with a rundown of this year’s Yorkshire Oaks.

Ante Post Analysis: Yorkshire Oaks a case of who turns up

The Yorkshire Oaks ante post list took a hit last Tuesday when 2025 runner up and recent Group One winner Estrange was surprisingly taken out.

That now leaves us with King George winner Kalpana, who might not run in favour of a break before an assault on the Arc, and Minnie Hauk – who was really disappointing behind Kalpana at Ascot last month.

On paper, this is an ideal race for Kalpana (11/8). But her King George exploits might have seen her graduate from filly and mares races for the time being as connections concentrate on Paris for second crack at the Arc.

At 12/1, I still think she is too big a price for the Arc but maybe I need to learn from her defeat there last year.

Even after the Arc, her owners Juddmonte have the option of the Filly and Mares Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot, which she has already won twice, so a midsummer break could make sense. If Kalpana was to be confirmed for the Yorkshire Oaks, she would be odds on in this field.

Minnie Hauk made it an Oaks four-timer in this race last year when winning at 8/15, adding to her Cheshire, Epsom and Irish triumphs.

I had high hopes for her in the King George on the basis she was returning to 12 furlongs. Everything was set up lovely for her during the race with two pacemakers and a clear run into the straight. However, she faded badly and I was left disappointed.

She could clearly win this for the second year running if back to her usual self and particularly with the prospect that Kalpana may not run. Minnie Hauk was out to 10/1 for the Yorkshire Oaks in the immediate aftermath of Ascot, but has been steadily trimmed in the market since. She’s now no bigger than 3/1 with Estrange ruled out – surely priced more on the basis of her likeliness to turn up than anything else.

Value in the alternatives?

Joseph O'Brien is having a fantastic year and has Irish Oaks winner Johanna Walsh as a possible runner here. She ran a big race at Royal Ascot before going to the Curragh and dominating by four lengths at the line.

Earth Shot (16/1)was the 9/4 Irish Oaks favourite in what turned into a messy affair at the business end, so William Haggas will be hoping she can bounce back on York's flatter track. The Irish Oaks second and third Inis Mor (20/1) and Sparun Nua (14/1) could also run at York, with the latter a big eyecatcher last time on just her fourth start for a Jim Bolger horse that didn't debut until May this year.

Course and distance Musidora winner Legacy Link (16/1) was second in the Oaks before badly hampered when 13/8 favourite in a pretty chaotic Ribblesdale (won by Earth Shot), so she's another who is talented and looking to bounce back – but it must be said that Musidora form is not working out well at all.

Given that Kalpana is more than 50% likely to not run in my mind and Minnie Hauk might well be going backwards, there has to be an ante post angle here. Plus, with 37 possibles at this stage, we could see a bigger field than the 7.2 ten-year average.

Taking Mor of a big price

Inis Mor looks the best bet at 20/1.

She has a win over Earth Shot early this year, got within two and a quarter lengths of Diamond Necklace in the Prix De Diane in July and ran a cracker from miles off the pace in the Irish Oaks.

Those tactics were far from ideal at the Curragh, given that 11 out of 13 winners on the round course that weekend were in touch with leaders or lead. Four actually made all.

Inis Mor has also proven she gets this trip and doesn't mind quick ground. My only worry is French-born but English-based David Menuisier finding a plan to run elsewhere. But this is the logical step and she could still run in something like the Vermielle three weeks later if he is that way inclined.

Menuisier is on a poor run at the time of writing but this is the best horse in his yard by some way.

Eight of the last 10 winners for this race were favourite and five of those odds on, but my prediction is that trend will be bucked this year.

Smido’s ante post 2026 Yorkshire Oaks best bet

0.5pt EW – Inis Mor - 20/1 (William Hill)

Total staked - 1pt

*Price available as of publish time on Tuesday August 11th 2026 and subject to change*

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