Focus On The Flat: St Leger Ante Post analysis and 14/1 fancy

Resident racing expert Adam Smith (@Smido11) is back with the latest edition of his Focus On The Flat column, where he takes an early ante post look at the 2025 St Leger.

Flat racing insight – St Leger ante post analysis

With all four of the UK and Irish colts Classics and Royal Ascot in the history books, now is as good as time as any to take an ante post look at the St Leger. The fifth and final British Classic of the season at Doncaster in mid-September.

As a side note, the Irish St Leger doesn’t count as a ‘Classic’ given it’s open to all ages.

Will Lambourn turn up?

Stop the press. Aidan O’Brien trains the favourite. Who’d have thought it?

Lambourn has just added the Irish Derby to sit alongside his Epsom Derby trophy. Aidan described him as “classy” and a possible Arc or King George horse. He could well be right – but we’ve been here before with last year’s Irish Derby winner Los Angeles, who looked all over a Leger horse to me at the time until the Ballydoyle boss started his stallion talk, saying LA was classier than a Leger horse.

The St Leger clearly isn’t a stallion-making race for Coolmore (or anyone for that matter). And Doncaster’s big race clashes with Irish Champions Weekend most years now, so there is no doubt it has fell down the Ballydoyle pecking order. O’Brien’s 2024 Leger winner, Jan Brueghel, was ridden by Sean Levey lest we forget. Ryan Moore will be at Leopardstown once again this year.

Some thought Lambourn was workmanlike in the Irish Derby, having to battle hard to beat 28/1 stablemate Serious Contender by a neck. And the oddsmakers weren’t impressed, with some pushing Lambourn out to 2/1 for the St Leger on the back of that. A bit harsh, in my opinion. Serious Contender might well be a serious horse.

As stated by his trainer, Lambourn looks unlikely to be going to Doncaster at this stage, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out. O’Brien has had plenty of Leger runners (and winners) also run in the Arc three weeks later, although not so much in recent years.

Other market leaders unconvincing

Charlie Johnston’s Lazy Griff has been second in the English Derby and third in the Irish Derby, ridden way too far back in the latter on a front runner’s course.

You’d have to consider him as a St Leger contender and a likely runner, possibly taking in the Voltigeur at York or the Gordan Stakes at Goodwood beforehand (the Johnstons love Goodwood apparently). Lacking the sexy profile, as we often say on Races Now. But he’s 9/1 and a definite contender.

Tennessee Stud is next in the market with close form ties to Lambourn and Lazy Griff. Third at Epsom, fourth at the Curragh. Although Joseph O’Brien poured cold water on him being a St Leger horse in the lead up to the Irish Derby. So youi'd be steering of that one from an ante post perspective.

Stay True is next in the market – another Aidan O’Brien horse. Second behind stablemate Puppet Master in a shocking renewal of the Lingfield Derby Trial and not seen since. Puppet Master didn’t exactly help the form either when ninth of ten in the Irish Derby.

So that’s the top four in the market brushed over and you can add the fifth in Minnie Hauk, who I think is very good but a very unlikely St Leger runner.

Merchant looks standout value

The value lies with Merchant from the William Haggas yard. He’s a standout 14/1 with one firm currently and that’s not short enough.

It has gone under the radar how impressive he was at Royal Ascot when winning the King George V Handicap. Tanked through the race with more horses in front than behind coming into the short straight at Ascot. Came through horses, quickened up well and won a tad cosy at the line by a length. Second that day, and leader throughout, was Serious Contender, who was second in the Irish Derby. Not bad form.

Haggas put Merchant in the King George proper a week prior to the Royal meeting. That is not usual Haggas behaviour for a horse that is yet to race in pattern company. Before Ascot, Merchant won easily at York with Rahiebb in second – and the latter is now rated fifteen pounds higher than when they met. The signs are there.

Merchant is 33/1 for that King George engagement in late July and clearly if he runs there and runs well, he would quickly go in the ‘too classy for a Leger’ category. But it would be scarce for the Haggas team to go from Handicap to all age proper Group One – particularly with a three year old.

Anyone keen on Merchant would have to be considering Serious Contender as part of their St Leger book and he’s currently priced at 16/1. I wouldn’t put you off.

Despite some shockers, including a handful not even running in the race I tipped them for, my ante post betting is in front this year courtesy of Lead Artist at 25/1 for the Lockinge.

However, Merchant for the St Leger is easily the best ante post bet I’ve struck this year.

Adam Smith's ante post selection for the 2025 St Leger

2pts - Merchant to win the St Leger - 14/1 (Bet365)