Focus On The Flat: An Arc market update one week out

In his latest Focus On The Flat column, Races Now's Adam 'Smido' Smith takes a whistlestop run-through of the current Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe market, assessing the key contenders and whether any value may be lurking in the current price quotes.

Focus On The Flat: A quick Arc update one week out!

Arc day is just over a week away and the annual French weather forecast speculation by British punters has begun.

I'm no expert on such matters and usually wait until final decs or beyond to see what the ground is up to, but we should be taking note as of now.

Recent Longchamp meetings have been run on quick ground. Indeed, they have watered over the weekend. Forecasts at this stage show little to no rain in Paris for the next week, with only "light cloud and scattered intervals" predicted on Arc weekend itself.

That could change, of course, but it should be in our ante-post betting calculations that the default "Arc day will be soft ground" I usually have in my head might not be the case this year.

Could quicker ground leave Daryz vulnerable?

For starters, quicker ground inconveniences betting favourite Daryz more than others.

For all that he has won on a sounder surface, he prefers it soft. Connections have even alluded to needing 'a bit of luck' several times this week, so we may well have a vulnerable jolly.

I've previously tipped Kalpana (12/1) and Pearled Majesty (66/1), who both remain set to run. Albeit I've lost a bit of confidence in the former since tipping her in July.

Fingers crossed, though.

Can Japan finally win the Arc?

Previously, I assumed that the Japanese challenge was quiet this year given they didn't have any runners in the trials, and they usually do.

An alternative approach is afoot this year however, as Meisho Tabaru (40/1) and Admire Terra (50/1) are intended runners and galloped on a watered Longchamp track earlier this week.

As the prices suggest, Japan's long wait for an Arc winner looks set to continue though.

Is Item overpriced at 50/1?

At 50/1 and with a dry forecast, Item is without doubt the most tempting price currently.

Were it not for that poor effort at Leopardstown last time out, this Juddmonte runner would be a third of the price.

Clearly ground is the key with him and there are two more likely Juddmonte runners in Kalpana and Sunly.

It's not a bet quite yet, but certainly one I am keeping an eye on. Put it this way, if I could bet 16/1 non-runner no bet, I would.

Could we see a smaller Arc field than usual?

Finally, could we have a smaller field than usual?

I couldn't find more than 12 likely runners on the ante-post list of around 70 horses: Daryz, Maltese Cross, Kalpana, Varandir, Minnie Hauk, Sunly, Benvenuto Cellini, Saddadd, Alam, Pearled Majesty, plus the two Japanese horses.

There'll be some also-rans too, of course.

There are question marks over Sunly (ownership alternative), Thundering On (options), Bay City Roller and Almaqam (ground). But most of the rest simply will not run.

So, it's a market I could see myself getting involved in again for sure. For now, I'm off to look at a French weather forecast...