Focus On The Flat: Runner-by-runner Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe betting guide

In his latest Focus On The Flat column, Races Now's Adam Smith whizzes his way through the updated field and prices ahead of the 2026 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, which takes place at Longchamp this Sunday.

Focus On The Flat: Running through this year's Arc field

TurfTrax report the Longchamp going as good to soft, good in places following some rainfall on Wednesday evening and, with plenty of sunshine forecast between now and Sunday, we could be in for a quick side of good Arc. Lovely.

So, here's a run-through of the 16 contenders with the all-important draw having been announced on Thursday evening, having supposedly taken place on Thursday morning. The market has subsequently been shaken up a bit, as you'd expect.

With an average winning stall number of 5.5 in the last eight years, it's safe to say connections would prefer to be drawn low.

2026 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe – post-draw market check

Daryz – 7/4

Last year's winner came into the race with stamina question marks, but put that to bed in good fashion when beating betting favourite Minnie Hauk a head in a prolonged battle. Those two pulled over five lengths clear of the rest.

Clearly, he has been campaigned with one race and one race only in mind this year, with wins exclusively at Longchamp at odds of 7/10 (April), 1/5 (May) and 1/5 again (September).

Without doubt the one to beat with a plum draw in stall five, although the playing field is very much levelled with quicker ground. Daryz has raced on properly quick ground twice and bombed out on both occasions.

Saddadd – 40/1

A somewhat under-the-radar 2026 for Saddadd, which most recently saw Roger Varian's Pinatubo colt win the German Group One Grosser Preis Von Baden – a race famously won by Torquator Tasso before triumphing in the 2021 Arc.

More noteworthy was his third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup in May, where he was way too far back from the pace at the Curragh, notoriously a front-running track. Beating Minnie Hauk that day and third behind Almaqam and Bay City Roller, who have both shown improved form since.

A possible player, though stall nine is not ideal. Stamina question marks, too.

Chestnut Rocket – 200/1

A long way short of the quality needed for an Arc, as his price suggests. A two-time Listed winner is the best his CV has to offer.

Even stall two unlikely to help.

Admire Terra – 50/1

One of two Japanese runners. Unusually, neither have had a prep race on French soil.

Third in a Japanese Group One in May this year. Fast ground suits but stall 12 doesn't do many favours.

Meisho Tabaru – 33/1

Rated higher than his countryman with a first and second in two starts at Grade One level this year.

Stamina very much to prove, though. Also on the end of a poor draw.

Arrow Eagle – 100/1

Legendary trainer Jean-Claude Rouget's last ever Arc runner. Third behind Chestnut Rocket when most recently seen.

Six and a half and seven lengths behind Daryz when facing that opponent previously. Prefers softer ground.

Disaster of a draw in 14 and hard to fancy.

Bay City Roller – 25/1

Certainly prefers soft ground and might not run if it remains quick underfoot.

Strong performance in the aforementioned Tattersalls Gold Cup before winning the Coronation Cup in borderline freak circumstances at Epsom. One outing since with a fair 'will come on for the run' effort behind Daryz in the Prix Foy.

Drawn in the car park.

Minnie Hauk – 20/1

Career-best effort when doing everything but win this race last year. That was on the back of a stellar 2025 which included Group Ones at Epsom, Curragh and York.

Fair to say connections will be disappointed by what she has produced this year. Hence why she is eight times the price to win that she was in 2025.

Quicker ground certainly helps but, frankly, she has been nowhere near good enough to my eye this year and stall 10 isn't ideal.

Kalpana – 7/1

A decent 16/1 seventh last year when drawn 10, though nowhere near the front two at the line.

A commanding winner of a fantastic King George in late July, after which I tipped her on these pages at 12/1 for the Arc.

The intervening period has tempered my enthusiasm after what looked a very hard race when winning the Yorkshire Oaks and, alarmingly to me, she jinked when meeting the pacemaker a furlong out and was absolutely all out at the line.

I very much hope she goes close and my money is on, but can't get those Yorkshire Oaks alarm bells out of my mind.

At least stall six gives her a fair chance from that perspective.

Friendly Soul – 25/1

A five-year-old mare with only ten career runs. Won her first try at a mile and a half over course and distance in the Group One Prix Vermeille – a win which got her a free entry into the Arc.

Certainly talented but needs to improve markedly to win here. Stall seven not the worst spot.

Varandir – 12/1

Three-quarters of a length behind Maltese Cross in a dramatic course-and-distance Grand Prix De Paris in July.

Visually impressive winner of the Prix Niel on Trials Day, although the form value of that race is very much up for debate.

Progressive, late bloomer and bred in the purple – there is much to like, for all he needs to step forward again.

Lovely draw, too.

Benvenuto Cellini – 16/1

Infamous for passing the line in the Epsom Derby before then being deemed a non-runner. Winner of the Irish Derby via Aidan O'Brien domination thereafter.

A fair effort in the King George but never looked like beating Kalpana, before completely bombing out when 2/5 for the Prix Niel that Varandir won.

A clear example of O'Brien pacemaker tactics causing them more harm than good. Actually, it was worse than that – pretty awful.

I'd happily put a line through that and hope headgear is applied that does the trick. Quicker the ground the better. Ryan Moore doing the steering now is also a positive.

Will certainly stay and, in stall one, can have no complaints.

Bright Light – 100/1

German contender for a country that punches way above its weight in this race.

Third behind Saddadd in the Grosser Preis Von Baden wouldn't strike you as Arc-winning form, however. Stall eight a very meh draw.

Maltese Cross – 5/1

Second in that chaotic rain-softened Derby before going one better in the Grand Prix De Paris, getting up on the line.

Winning the Voltigeur with a degree of ease under a five-pound penalty sounds nice but beating Pierre Bonnard and Christmas Day isn't form good enough to be the Arc second favourite, is it?

I thought he should have run in (and won) the St Leger. Connections clearly think he's good enough to run in Europe's richest race.

I can see him drifting, though – particularly in stall 11.

Thundering On – 9/1

Won the Oaks at Epsom on the bridle. But that is form which has not worked out at all.

Somewhat found out on quicker ground in the Pretty Polly thereafter but did bounce back after a mid-season break when well backed and winning a Group Two at the Curragh three weeks ago.

She's a headscratcher for me. Might well need soft ground, might be way short of the standard against the boys here.

But on the other hand, catches the eye like a very good horse when she does win, albeit in vastly calmer waters than an Arc.

Great draw in stall three does no harm.

Diamond Necklace – 9/1

A winner of the French Guineas and 'Oaks' earlier this year, looking a potential superstar in the making.

Won another Group One when odds-on for the Nassau, with Friendly Soul nearly three lengths back. Got beat the first time she faced a Group One horse in Aventure in the Romanet, however.

A market mover this week when attentions were turned to the Arc rather than the L'Opera on the undercard.

I had her down as not wanting a single yard more than ten furlongs, for all that I can see why they are giving twelve furlongs a go on potentially quick ground and in what could be a below-average renewal.

However, a doomsday draw sees Moore hop off and that sums up how connections now feel about the task at hand.

Benvenuto Cellini joins the Arc shortlist

Saddadd, Varandir and Benvenuto Cellini are on my shortlist as of now, which has already featured Kalpana since late July.

I can barely believe I am typing Benvenuto after the up-and-down season he has had. But he is drawn one, you can put a line through his last effort which was too bad to be true, and before that, the horse had shown much promise in a high-quality King George.

It's got to be an each-way price in the circumstances, with so many question marks throughout this field. The price moved quickly but I still think it could go a little shorter on the day.

2026 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – Smido’s selection

0.5pt EW – Benvenuto Cellini – 16/1 (1/5 odds, 3 places)

Already advised

1pt EW – Kalpana – 12/1 (1/5 odds, 3 places)

0.5pt EW – Pearled Majesty – 66/1 (1/5 odds, 3 places) – NON-RUNNER