2025 Arc De Triomphe preview and betting tips

Races Now's flat expert Adam Smith (@Smido11) turns his ante post attentions to the 2025 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe meeting – the annual late-season feast of top-class action from Longchamp in Paris.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2025 betting analysis

Halloween decorations may well adorn your local supermarket, but fear not, the flat season still has a fantastic amount of Group One apples in the barrel before we put on our National Hunt costumes in a few weeks' time.

This weekend, all eyes will be on Paris for what is always a sensational crescendo to the European flat season. The Arc De Triomphe, of course, takes centre stage on Sunday but there is a plenty of other top class action over the weekend including eight Group Ones and three Group Twos.

For comparison, Royal Ascot has the same amount of top level races, but over five days.

Good ground looks likely

British punters like myself can usually be found moaning about the Longchamp weather and going descriptions at this time of year. The French going descriptions when translated to 'proper' English rarely match what the clock says on the day.

From the sources I have looked at so far, the Parisian weather looks set fair and we could and should be on good ground. Ande Humphrey who is my go to French racing expert went as far to say he wouldn't rule out them watering the track this week – showing how dry it has been recently.

So at this ante post stage, I'm avoiding soft ground lovers. This is evidenced by Ed Walker's Almaqam being all but ruled out seven days in advance and connections stating it won't be soft enough for him. Shame, as he would have been on my shortlist.

Minnie has a mighty chance

The ladies have a good record in the Arc having won five of the last 10 renewals and it is they who top the ante post betting, Minnie Hauk and Aventure at 9/2 joint favourites currently.

I have long thought Minnie Hauk will be better against better opposition and possibly against the boys – she'll certainly get those two things on Sunday.

Many will disagree with my hunch given she has spent much of her life dominating her own sex at short prices, and in some cases (see the Irish Oaks) been workwomanlike in getting the job done at long odds on.

If the ground is anything like good to firm (reasonably large if), I think she is a worthy favourite here. But there is absolutely no doubt she will needs to step up in these much deeper waters. I think she can.

Aventure not to be overlooked

I thought Arc trials day was as informative as it has ever been this year. Particularly compared to some previous years where the runners were mainly French based and subsequently had very little impact on the big day itself.

Trials day this year had runners from England, Ireland and Japan and plenty threw their hat in the ring for Europe's richest prize.

Aventure was second in the Arc last year and without doubt put in the best performance on trials day when winning the Group One Vermeille with ease.

She could hardly have had a more typical French prep for the Arc - placed in the race last year, Group Three and Group Two wins early this year, second in a Group One behind the best horse in France in June, a mid-season break before winning a key trial as easy as she liked.

There is a lot to like and she's clearly a big player on Sunday.

Asian dreams alive

The Japanese have long tried to win the Arc and this year have a three-pronged attack.

Croix Du Nord (9/1), Byantine Dream (12/1) and Alohi Alii (16/1) are yet to announce themselves as equine superstars, but their combined odds surely give Japan their best chance yet of lifting the Longchamp showpiece.

Unlike previous years, all three have ran (and won) on French soil recently and at least two of them will be ridden by European jockeys.

Kalpana needs some cut

I have previously tipped Kalpana on this very column at 10/1. I thought she ran a brilliant Arc trial in the King George in July.

But we have a couple of problems now. She prefers softer ground and she has since been beaten in a lacklustre showing at Kempton. And she's now 16/1.

I haven't given up hope on Kalpana and if soft was to be in the description, I'd be interested in her again. She doesn't need it bottomless, but the current forecast isn't to her advantage, that is for sure.

A Lef-field selection

Sometimes it takes the assistance of others to point you in the right direction and the aforementioned Ande encouraged me to take a look at Leffard's run in the Prix Niel on trials day. And I'd advise you to go back and watch it too.

This was his first runs for 56 days following a Group One Grand Prix De Paris win on quick enough ground in mid-July.

Drawn widest of all, the horse is dropped right out the back, almost detached but going well enough turning in. He then makes mooth progress down the wide outside, receiving one very minor tap from the jockey for the cameras, and finished on the bridle.

Arc trials day for me – particularly for French horses – is one of two things. 1) unproven horses looking to show they are good enough to run in the Arc, 2) proven horses (Leffard already a Group One winner) having a nice canter round and hardly breaking sweat as a prep for the big one.

At 66/1 (cut to 50s 29/09/25), the unexposed Leffard represents the best ante post value in a market where the top end prices look about right to me.

Adam's ante post selection for the 2025 Prix de l'Arc De Triomphe

1pt EW - Leffard – 50/1 (Bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power – 1/5 odds 3 places))