Punters Panel: Horse racing betting tips for this weekend

Newmarket takes centre stage this weekend with the July Cup topping the bill, alongside the Summer Mile at Ascot.

As always, our racing experts are here to mark your card ahead of all the action via our weekly Punters Panel!

Introducing the Odds Now Horse Racing Punters Panel

Before we get stuck in, here’s a little bit more on the three experts answering our key questions this week – featuring a couple of guest appearances. If you would like to get involved in our Punters Panel in a future week, be sure to DM Races Now on X!:

Adam Smith - A betting industry veteran, flat lover and one half of our Races Now double act.

Harry Fowler - Another of Odds Now’s regular racing contributors, currently working in the industry.

Mark Rogerson - Sports bettor, marathon runner, occasional rails bookmaker assistant and huge racing fan. Follow on X @MarkyRodge.

Alfie Bennett - Regular racegoer, punter and horse shareholder. Works within the industry.

Newbury takes centre stage with their Super Sprint card. Anything taking our eye in the five furling juvenile race?

AS - My brain doesn't have enough capacity for these sales races. There are two horses in here with an official rating of 61, yet one (Holliesthedollie) carries 9lbs less than the other (Seathegulls). There is a reserve runner in here with an official rating of 44, for God's sake!

HF - This race is hard enough, so I’m going to take a swing on one. I like Final Appeal at a big price. Was a good winner back in April beating an Amo horse now rated 89 by 3 1/4 lengths. He disappointed last time at Chester but I can forgive a bad run at that venue. If back to the level of previous run I think can run well.

MR - It’s not a race I’d normally get involved in, with plenty of unknowns and a big field. If I had to have a selection, it would be Sky Secret, who looked very impressive at Leicester last time, but it’s not a race I’m overly keen to play.

AB - Really tricky betting race where usually can find a bit of value. I do tend to look at trends when it comes to 2yos as a lot are very unexposed and could have potentially come on for their first few runs. Hannon has won this race the most and his fancied one Rollthedicebaby looked great when breaking her maiden at Goodwood. The subsequent 3rd won at Lingfield on Tuesday night so form has been franked. Do think owner Jabeer Abdullah who is known for having some smart 2yos has a couple in the race that both look smart too.

Anything else for you on the Newbury undercard?

AS - I like Symbol Of Honour in the Hackwood (15:02). Very much ran like a horse off a four month break at Newcastle last time. Just over a year ago this horse was going off 4/1 for the July Cup. He can bounce back to form here.

HF - I backed Team Player in the Northumberland Plate and was given too much to do. I think there is still a race in him off this mark and fancy him to win the 2:25pm.

MR - The race that interests me most is the 3:02pm. I’m happy to take on the front two in the market, Soldier’s Tree and Binhareer, especially the latter who’s been expensive to follow. Jasour drops into much calmer waters after pulling his chance away in a Group 1 at Ascot last time, and I think his other runs this season have been solid in the context of this race. At around 8/1 with the extra place on offer, he looks a solid each-way bet.

AB - I'll be having a decent bet in the 2:25pm on Charlie Johnstone's runner Baileys Kehlstar. I've taken 7/1 ante post, which I suspect will be a little bit shorter come the day. This one has won at the track and will appreciate the road-like conditions at Newbury.

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Summer jumping from Market Rasen, any fancies there?

AS - Nothing for me. So back to Newbury where I'm chancing Arabian Light in the opener (13:55). Persica is a good horse but prefers softer ground. We have no idea how good Oceans Four is. Al Zanati is on a retrieval mission. So Arabian Light takes my eye having ran with all sorts of credit in the Brigadier Gerard. Less so in a chaotic Wolferton Stakes last time, another I'm hoping can bounce back to form.

HF - Not massively into the summer jumps but the Skeltons are going at a silly rate to get as many winners as possible. Louis Veron has been one that has had two recent wins and comes to the 2:10pm on a hat-trick. He has won both times with some authority and I can’t see him beat.

MR - You have to be wary of Louis Veron in the Summer Hurdle. Dan Skelton is a master at targeting these races, but at the prices I think he’s trading more on potential and connections than what he’s actually achieved on the track. Mojito Des Mottes was recently taken out because of fast ground, so he wouldn’t be for me either. At the prices, Squeezebox makes the most appeal after beating a well-handicapped odds-on favourite last time, who has since won again. He looks the value each-way play against the Skelton favourite.

AB - I tend to not to touch too much summer jumps, albeit the card at Market Rasen is a decent one at that. Their Summer Plate and Hurdle are both decent races. I won't be able to resist a poke on my old mate Mahons Glory in the Chase. Get him pinging from the front Lewis and no one catches you!

Any other bets taking your eye this weekend?

AS - I'm backing Amelia Earhart in the Irish Oaks (16:35). She's the Ballydoyle number one and we've seen how they can dominate big races this year (French Derby, Irish Derby, Eclipse). Aidan O'Brien has five runners and could do similar again here. Amelia was disappointing in the Oaks at Epsom, but faster ground and a faster pace here will help. Favourite Thundering On might just want soft ground, and she doesn't get it here.

HF - At the Curragh for the Sapphire Stakes, I fancy Havana Anna. She’s run some brilliant races in her short career. One of her best last time when 4th in the Commonwealth Cup, which is form that the horses in the July Cup did no harm. I think this drop back to 5f will be no issue to her and I'm not sure the Kings Stand form is all that at all, which her main market rivals ran in last time.

MR - The 3:15 at Ripon, live on ITV, is where I’ll be having a bet. I think Yafreh is the one to be on after being touched off by Parisian Scholar last time, who has since won again. The run before that, he finished a good second behind a well-fancied Roger Varian runner. He still looks unexposed and this looks a great opportunity to lose his maiden tag.

AB - I really like Inis Mor in the Oaks too – she’s around 11/2 at the minute. Subsequent 3rd behind Diamond Necklace (who is the best about in my opinion) and Pink Panthera, who just got pipped on Tuesday night by a wonder Graffard filly. They paid a lot to supplement and beat the fav (recently Wathnan purchased that won the Ribbesdale) at Goodwood a month or so ago. So she would be a strong bet for me.

What did you make of the Group 1s last week – the Falmouth and the July Cup?

AS - I tipped Comanche Brave at 22/1 in this very space last week so I was happy to see that travelling like a good thing at the furlong pole before going on to win. Satono Reve ran with credit once again, Coppull ran back to form which was nice to see. Division was an eyecatcher from off the pace.

HF - The Falmouth, we’ve seen a very good one there. Precise I want to see at 10f and like Smido I backed Balantina, who ran another good race and I will be backing her again. The July Cup, I can’t help but feel disappointed that we didn’t see one of those Royal Ascot winners stamp some authority on the division.

MR - The Falmouth didn’t strike me as a particularly deep renewal. The winner was impressive, but I came away with more questions than answers. I missed the July Cup live as I was working at Chester, but having watched it back, there’s just no stopping Billy the Kid at the minute.

AB - I had (like I did at Ascot) a very large bet on the Japanese runner in the July Cup, so if I take off my emotional cap, I found it a decent rendition. The winner was excellent – possibly unlucky in the QE2 and forgot about a bit in the betting, but finished off much the best that day and the July course really helped. Form behind Ka Ying clearly means something! I thought Blue Bolt was excellent, giving away that 9lbs to Precise and winning well was impressive. She’s a big, strong filly and the Nassau might be the next stop. I do think a trip to the Breeders Cup would really be in connections' mind and she would be my pick in the fillies/mares.

Affordability checks. What on earth is going on and have they impacted you yet?

AS - A mess. Decisions made by quangos that wouldn't know how many bets are in a Lucky 15. Another notch on the slow death of gambling in the UK, and as a direct result - British racing. I could be here all day moaning about it. On affordability checks, I always say I'd rather reluctantly send my bank statement than stop betting. At my level of stakes, I'd be under the thresholds most of the time anyway. I've only had to supply documents to the exchange suppliers thus far.

HF - It is chaos in the racing world. It hasn’t impact me at all at this stage being a small stakes punter but the impact is coming at some stage. These type of rule/policies, once they start, don’t get taken away or stay the same – they only get harsher and harsher.

MR - The soft launch of affordability checks has already impacted me, as online firms are using them as another tool to restrict customers. I’ve had calls from their ‘safer gambling’ teams and had deposit limits placed on my accounts until I could prove I could afford the bets I was making. The Gambling Commission really frustrates me – they’re a faceless organisation that nobody can actually speak to, and they seem hellbent on ruining the game for everyone. As someone who spends a lot of time on course, I think the changes could help the on-course betting ring in the short term, but in the medium to long term I think they’ll be disastrous for racing. It might suit on-course layers for a while, but if punters continue to be driven away, they may not have a game left to lay bets on in the not-too-distant future.

AB - I haven't personally been affected by affordability checks because I do most of my betting in betting shops and generally don't bet at stakes that would trigger them. For someone like me, they probably won't have much impact beyond what the professional punter experiences. That said, as someone who has worked in the racing industry for several years, I do have real concerns about the direction they're taking. In my opinion, affordability checks risk becoming the slow death of a sport that means so much to so many people. Horse racing isn't just about betting – it supports thousands of jobs across racecourses, training yards, breeding, hospitality, media and bookmakers, including my own role within the industry. If betting becomes increasingly difficult or intrusive, the knock-on effect could be felt throughout the entire sport. For me, it's about finding a better balance. Protect those who genuinely need help, without putting unnecessary barriers in front of responsible punters or threatening the future of a sport that I love.

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