Punters Panel: Horse racing betting tips for this weekend

The Flat season continues to serve up the big races, with a cracking card at Newmarket taking centre stage this Saturday.

The Cambridgeshire Handicap provides one of the weekend’s toughest betting puzzles, while the Cheveley Park Stakes and Middle Park Stakes give us a chance to see some of the season’s leading juveniles in Group 1 action.

There’s also racing from Haydock to get stuck into before attention turns towards Longchamp and next weekend’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

And, with Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting now less than a month away, we’ve even dared to mention the return of the jumps to our predominantly Flat-loving panel...

Introducing the Odds Now Horse Racing Punters’ Panel

Adam Smith: A betting industry veteran, Flat lover and one half of our Races Now double act.

Lee Jones: Horse racing trader at a leading high-street bookmaker and highly respected judge.

Harry Fowler: Another of Odds Now’s regular racing contributors, currently working in the industry.

Zac Castledine: Regular Races Now viewer and Punters’ Panel contributor with a keen eye for the big racing action.

Who do you fancy for the Cambridgeshire?

AS: Hand Of God for me. Quite simply has form all season that is a lot higher in the handicap now. High weights haven’t hindered recent winners of the race.

LJ: I’ve liked Hand Of God all week for this. I think the pace could be low here and all the fancied horses are high. Hopefully they might all come down the middle as there are only 28 runners and it’s a fair race.

HF: I’m with Crest Of Fire, who has been progressing well this season. He was a good second at Ascot back in July, and that form has since been franked by the winner at Goodwood, who won again, and he was clear of the third. He then went to Goodwood himself, winning over this trip. He didn’t have the greatest run through, but a perfect ride from Tom Marquand meant he only got 4lb for that win. He was worth a good bit more than that, and the horses in behind have also franked that form. It looks quite obvious that this has been the plan, and he had a run-out last time in a Group 3 at Windsor. But as this race is double the prize money to the winner, I think a run-out is all that was.

ZC: I hold a decent position with the favourite, Gavriel, who I backed a few weeks ago. Historically, the Gosden team target this with Group-quality, lightly raced three-year-olds; take the 2019 winner Lord North, for example. Last time at Ascot, Gavriel was mightily impressive, carrying top weight to victory over next-time-out winner Balzac. His pedigree also boosts confidence, being out of a Group 1 winner. Too many things line up here, and there’s an overwhelming feeling that he might just be different class.

The first of two juvenile Group Ones – who wins the red-hot Cheveley Park?

AS: An absolute cracker. Sun Goddess might prove the best in time, but over six furlongs right now, I think she’ll be beaten. Senorita Bonita was fantastic last time in France and can win again here.

LJ: I really fancy Senorita Bonita. She is a proper sprinting filly and all the metrics back that up, whereas Sun Goddess is most probably suited by further.

HF: This is an incredible race, wow. I don’t personally see how anyone can have a strong opinion here. It’s a race I’m more than happy not to have a bet in, but I just about edge towards Senorita Bonita. She was electric in that Morny, beating the boys comprehensively. I also liked how well she ran in the Queen Mary from a low draw over on the wrong side.

ZC: What a race. You could spend ages going into the profiles of the main three contenders, but I’m going to keep this one simple. Sun Goddess looks all-imperious. She’s the one to beat for me.

Middle Park Stakes up next – who are you backing?

AS: Not a great renewal by any stretch. Orthodox won a 21-runner Royal Ascot five-furlong race by over three lengths – that takes some doing. I think he should be favourite, currently isn’t, and will win.

LJ: I think Orthodox will win this back on fast ground and has been working unbelievably at home. He showed how good he was at Royal Ascot.

HF: I’m with Inner City Blues. He’s looked top-class in both his runs, and Charlie Appleby is going well – he does so well at HQ. The way his season has gone, I can only see him finishing very strongly.

ZC: It was an obvious shock to see no Great Barrier Reef declared on Thursday morning, but no complaints from me as I’m a huge Inner City Blues fan. What a season it has been for his sire, Blue Point, and I’m confident that, alongside Charlie Appleby’s current stable form, Inner City Blues will give the excellent sire his fourth individual Group 1 winner of the year, and his equally excellent trainer a third win on the trot in this race.

Anything taking your eye at Haydock?

AS: Nothing at Haydock. But I am topping up at Newmarket with Al Samsama in the opener and Quest For Stars in race two. Both around 6/1, safe each-way bets.

LJ: Nothing at all, I’m afraid!

HF: I like Looka in the first. He’s only had five runs as a three-year-old. He was a good winner last time when reverting to prominent tactics, which I think will work here without an abundance of pace angles. He’s only up 3lb for last time’s win at Salisbury, which looks generous for one so unexposed.

ZC: Indeed. King Of Light won this race last year and I think he is nailed on to do so again. This is a simple case of horses for courses. Just wins!

With a dry weather forecast, who do you like for next week’s Arc?

AS: I’ve tipped Pearled Majesty at a ridiculous price following her eye-catching run in a trial. And I also tipped Kalpana back in July, but I’ve since gone off her, although I’m financially committed. She had a very tough race at York. Daryz is the one to beat, but drying ground makes him less likely to win.

LJ: Nothing until we see the draw and what the ground is. You could make cases for a few but you need to be drawn low – though that’s nothing you don’t know!

HF: I was with Bay City Roller, but that plan hasn’t quite gone to plan. The draw will obviously play a massive part, so no, I’m not steaming in at 7/4, but I simply can’t get away from Daryz. I can’t see Maltese Cross as an Arc winner. I think he’s beaten a lot of not-that-good horses. With Kalpana, I would be worried that she could feel the effects of a tough race at York. Then from there, it’s murky waters in terms of what runs and what’s actually up to this.

ZC: I’d be very surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the top four in the market, which shows that this is quite a poor renewal. That said, you’d be a brave person to take on Graffard and the Aga Khan. Daryz to become the eighth horse in history to win back-to-back Arcs for me.

Less than a month before Cheltenham returns – dare we ask what you are looking forward to for the Jumps season?

AS: Absolutely not. There are basically ten days worthy of looking forward to in the whole season. Anyone giving Festival quotes in October is like me asking for a price of the 2,000 Guineas winner to win the QEII. Simply wouldn’t happen.

LJ: The Old Whitbread Gold Cup. You know it’s over then!

HF: I do enjoy the jumps, and it will be a good season ahead, but with all the Flat racing we still have left – this weekend, Future Champions and Champions Day – I can’t think about that just yet.

ZC: Guinness and tweed, but that’s obvious! On a real note, I’m a jumps man at heart, being from Cheltenham, and I can’t wait to be back at the home of jumps racing for the Showcase meeting in October. However, there are plenty of fascinating contests on the Flat to be had until then, so I’ll keep my focus on them.

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